Five Burning Questions: Week Seven
Welcome to the weekly series where I ask and then answer five questions about the upcoming week, season, or anything else my (really) weird brain can come up with.
1.) What is wrong with Keenan Allen?
Nothing.
What we have here is a dash of play calling mixed with a teaspoon of Malcom Floyd, and topped off with a bit of It Hasn’t Quite Come Together.
Last year, the Chargers depth chart looked something like this: Allen, Eddie Royal, Dog the Bounty Hunter, Lego Harry Potter, Vincent Brown. With no real deep threat on the roster following Floyd’s injury, Allen and Antonio Gates pretty much had their run of the place. In fact, only three Chargers wide receviers caught more than six total passes all year.
Now that Floyd is back, and posting 21.3 yards per reception, Allen is left with the underneath role. This theory is backed up by Allen’s marked decrease from 2.06 yards per route run* in 2013 to this season’s 1.40, good for 50th in the league among players who’ve received at least 25% of their team’s targets.
All is not lost. The good news is Allen is on pace to log four more targets and four more receptions than in his rookie campaign, and despite failing to score a touchdown as of yet, he has been targeted five times in the red zone, second only to Gates among San Diego pass catchers. We can also look forward to Royal doing what he traditionally does after a hot streak: disappear.
Seemingly past a groin issue that bothered him a few weeks back, I’m far from panicking for 2014 and am steadfast in my support of Allen’s future as a WR1. I’m not letting a not-as-bad-as-people-think start to his sophomore season sully my opinion of his long term potential.
*Yards per route run, or YPPR, is a metric used by Pro Football Focus. It is calculated by dividing receiving yards by the number of routes the player has run. This metric combines targets, depth of target, production, and efficiency into one handy stat.
2.) Can Brian Quick get back on track against Seattle?
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Quick’s performance last week made my stomach hurt as though I was on the receiving end of a flying elbow from Macho Man Randy Savage. Despite the letdown, I’m confident the rising star will get back on track in what is a much better matchup than you may think.
The Seattle D isn’t as stingy as last season, allowing a surprising nine opposing receivers to hit double digit PPR points this season. To put it another way, 64% of WR’s who’ve logged a target versus Seattle have scored at least 10.3 points. Only three receivers have failed to reach seven points and they’ve combined for only six targets.
A bit of film study last night revealed Quick splits time between the left and right side pretty equally. With stud corner Richard Sherman never straying from his left corner position, Quick should log plenty of time across from rookie Marcus Burley, who is filling in for the injured Byron Maxwell.
I’m a big fan of Quick and believe his early season capitalization on his considerable potential is very real – we should see more of the same this week.
3.) What is Branden Oliver’s long term outlook?
After watching the Oakland game, I’m well and truly sold on this kid. Some notes:
- Oliver cuts so hard he often loses footing. To be fair, the condition of the turf in San Diego wasn’t the best I’ve ever seen.
- He is impossibly difficult to tackle. Oliver’s low center of gravity, hulking lower body and innate ability to shift right before contact all conspire against defenders’ ability to make the tackle.
- Even after contact, his leg drive piles up additional yardage. You can’t expect a 205 pound back to move the pile, but Oliver’s ability to fall forward makes him viable around the goal line and in short yardage.
- Oliver catches the ball well and is a demon in space. I also noticed how well he gets out in the flat on screen plays. He just sort of weasels his way through defenders and, boom, there he is.
- He shows decisiveness and patience.
- He is a willing pass blocker who shows good effort. Did find himself out of position a bit and struggles with power rushes due to lack of size. He has a tendency to lower his head in anticipation of contact, taking his eyes off the defender. This caused at least two missed/poor blocks after the rusher side-stepped him.
Oliver’s main issues are going to be Ryan Mathews and perception. If Mathews is ever healthy, Oliver is likely to be on the worse half of a committee. That said, he should catch plenty of passes and could replicate Danny Woodhead’s numbers from a year ago when he was the PPR RB12.
Mathews could gone next year, as he is in the final year of his deal. If that happens and Oliver can break free of the “too small” perception, he should grab ahold of the job and be a very solid RB2. As such, the rookie will be moving into the top 30 (or so) of my running back rankings – that rank could rise quickly if he continues to impress.
4.) Is Eddie Lacy worthy of his lofty status?
With every passing week, I am moving closer to a firm, “no.”
The numbers on Lacy are compelling: In 21 career games where he has logged more than one carry, he has topped four yards per carry (YPC) in only seven. In the 14 contests he failed to reach that threshold, Lacy averages 53 yards on 17 carries, good for a pitiful 3.1 yards per carry.
According to Pro Football Focus, Lacy ranks 19th in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (Yco/Att), behind the likes of Chris Johnson and Justin Forsett. Last year he ranked 16th in that same metric (behind Trent Richardson and teammate James Starks, among others). Lots of good backs fare worse, but Lacy is a power runner with a physical style. He needs to do better.
At this point I’m looking for ways to bump him down my ranks. Lucky for Lacy, pretty much everybody I had from eight to 13 has had an awful season as well. That said, if I could find an owner willing to pay a top-five price, I’d be selling.
5.) What is wrong with Pordarrelle Catterson?
Editors Note: Jeff has already surpassed his contractual limit on mentions of Cordarrelle Patterson for the 2014 calendar year. In a misguided effort to once again preach from the pulpit of anti-Patterson, he attempted to pull an end around, circumventing those contractual limitations. There is no Pordarrelle Catterson, and he knows it.
While I’ve stricken this latest rant from the record, you can find Jeff’s thoughts on the matter by reading his article, The Case Against Cordarrelle.
As a result of Jeff’s obvious disregard for his contract, he has been fined in the amount of three bags of Funyuns and his prized copy of Tom Selleck: An Unauthorized Biography. Assuming Jeff pays his fine in full, he will be back with next week’s installment of Five Burning Questions.
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- How to Win Without Watching Football - July 22, 2021
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