Final Rookie Mock Draft: Round One
The wonderful month of August is finally here – that means the long football drought is finally over! Training camps have begun, preseason games are underway and we are only a few weeks away from the regular season kicking off and fantasy football matches beginning. It is a wonderful time where almost every owner thinks their team has what it takes to make that next step.
The new crop of rookies are a major part of that hope for a lot of owners. Unfortunately, the statistics are not in the favor of anyone who is being overly reliant on them since the vast majority of these youngsters are going to bust. However, we also know there will be a handful of them who will turn into the next fantasy stars. In order to help those of you with late rookie drafts or those of you engaging in trade talks, our writers are back with one final writers only rookie mock draft.
Here is a quick refresher on the guidelines given to our drafters before each mock begins:
- Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
- Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
- Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly okay. There is no group think here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. It happens!
Rounds two and three will be appearing in later articles, but here is round one. It has remained largely the same since May, but the order has changed up a little bit thanks to OTAs and early training camp buzz about a few of the players.
1.01– Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
Jaron’s thoughts: Though his landing spot isn’t optimal, Watkins is the best wide receiver in this class. He does all the little things well and has the highest floor of any rookie. Great route-running, solid hands, the ability to break tackles and get yards after the catch, durability, production against good competition and so many other reasons put Watkins at the top of the list.
My thoughts: It should come as no surprise to anyone that Watkins is the top pick in this rookie draft as he has been the top pick in all of our rookie mocks. In fact, I might almost go as far as to say if he wasn’t the top pick in your rookie draft, someone messed up. When I watch Watkins play, he reminds me a bit of a bigger Percy Harvin. He has that level of agility and suddenness. Combine that with everything else he brings to the table and you have a guy who could be a top ten receiver for years to come, especially once the quarterback situation in Buffalo settles out.
1.02– Mike Evans, WR TB
Russell’s thoughts: He is a borderline elite prospect. He is big, strong and possesses great ball skills. Put all of that together with him being selected seventh overall in the draft and you have a potential Pro Bowler for the next five-to-seven years.
My thoughts: While I wholeheartedly agree with Russell’s selection, I think it might be a little bit too strong to be talking about any rookie as a Pro Bowler for the next few years. Evans has the size to be elite, but like all rookies, it is going to take some time. There are some areas of his game which need refinement and the quarterback situation in Tampa is unsettled in the long run. With that said, I expect great things from Evans I just think it might take a bit of patience before we see his full potential.
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1.03– Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
Karl’s thoughts: It’s rare when a rookie enters his inaugural year with rare talent and a favorable team situation. Chip Kelly and Nick Foles are heading an offensive juggernaut in Philadelphia. With the departure of DeSean Jackson, the Eagles are left without a potential star pass catcher. Matthews can be the go-to guy in one of the best young offenses in the league.
My thoughts: I really like Matthews. He’s been in my top five receivers in this draft class since very early Spring. He has good size, hands and speed to go along with being very polished as a receiver. When you put all of that into the high flying Eagles offense, it is possible he could be the Rookie of the Year this season. Unlike a lot of the other players, Matthews has the skill and opportunity to produce right away. I don’t think he is going to be the best player from this class long-term, or even top three long term, but he is going to be very good for a long time and could be a fantasy starter as early as this season.
1.04– Brandin Cooks, WR NO
Scott P’s thoughts: I’ll board the hype train. I wasn’t as impressed as others when I watched video of Cooks, but there is no doubt he is fast, athletic and has a prominent role in a great offense. Draft picks routinely bust and I think Cooks has a very good chance of hitting for dynasty owners, so I’ll take him here.
My thoughts: Scott might not be too sold on Cooks, but he absolutely needs to be a top five pick in rookie drafts. The Saints have routinely been one of the best offenses in the league ever since Drew Brees came to town and outside of Jimmy Graham, they are void of young pass catchers with elite potential. The opportunity and talent is there. Cooks has truly elite burst, acceleration and change of direction skills. I do have some concern about how he’ll handle press coverage in the NFL due to his size, but separation won’t be an issue once he can get free of defenders.
1.05– Bishop Sankey, RB TEN
Brian’s thoughts: Sankey is my top running back in the class and he has an opportunity to be a three down back in the NFL. With Shonn Greene and Jackie Battle as the only competition in the backfield moving forward, Sankey will get every opportunity to succeed. He has the chance to put up solid PPR points this season and moving forward. With a limited number of three down backs in the NFL, Sankey could hold a lot of value early if he has success in his rookie season.
My thoughts: I’ve had Sankey as my number two ranked running back since prior to the draft. He was very underrated early in the process, but his selection by the Titans has vaulted him up draft boards to the point where he is actually being overdrafted in some leagues. The fifth spot is dangerously close to that territory in my eyes. Sankey does have three down talent and a good situation, but he isn’t exceptional at anything. I think of him as a slightly more talented Zac Stacy or Shonn Greene. Long term, I don’t see many top five or maybe even top ten seasons out of him, but he’ll be a very solid RB2 for a long time.
1.06– Carlos Hyde, RB SF
Jeff M’s thoughts: If this were real life, there is no chance I’d stay at this slot and make the pick, but if I did, Hyde would be my guy. A week or two ago, that may not have been the case, but with recent developments in San Francisco (Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James suffering serious injuries), the backfield is much less crowded, meaning Hyde will have a chance at value earlier than many anticipated. The well-rounded (he can catch, block and run) bruiser is a great fit for the 49ers and given the position he plays in today’s NFL, that matters.
My thoughts: Unlike Jeff, I’m not sure I would have been pushing to trade back. Maybe a pick or two, but not much more than that as Hyde sixth overall is a nice selection in my eyes. Frank Gore is old, Hunter is a free agent and coming off another major injury and James just isn’t an NFL running back. Put all of it together and it means Hyde is the guy for one of the most run heavy teams in the league. He has the size to be a 300+ touch player in the NFL and won’t need to leave the field. Unlike Sankey, I think Hyde has top ten potential if you’re willing to be patient with him for a year.
1.07– Odell Beckham, WR NYG
James’ thoughts: Beckham is my third-ranked prospect in this draft, so I was pretty happy to snag him at seven. I do fear, however, that Beckham may take some time to develop and adapt to the pro game, so I will be tempering my early expectations. That being said, he is a fantastic route-runner who can fly by defenders but also do the dirty work underneath. His huge hands allow him to effortlessly pluck the ball from the air and his explosiveness with the ball in his hands will lead to plenty of YAC and big plays.
My thoughts: I think James nailed it on Beckham. With the injuries he has suffered so far, I think he is a little behind this year. The Giants are also known for holding rookies back in favor of veterans. I think he’s going to disappoint a lot of people this year, but you need to be patient with him. He has the talent to be a top 20 receiver in the NFL, but it just won’t happen this year. Long term, I think it is possible he could be lining up with Victor Cruz if Rueben Randle moves on in free agency in a few years or underperforms.
1.08– Allen Robinson, WR JAX
Dan’s thoughts: I said in April that I thought Robinson was the third best receiver in this class behind Watkins and Evans and I stand by that statement. Needless to say, I’m thrilled to get him with the eighth pick in this draft. He has very good hands, runs smooth routes and possesses a 42-inch vertical along with impressive hand/eye coordination which should make him an elite red zone target at the next level. Landing in Jacksonville will give him an opportunity to contribute early (albeit with Chad Henne or fellow rookie Blake Bortles throwing him passes) as long as the hamstring injury he suffered in minicamp heals up. The injury may move him down some draft boards especially since it reoccurred recently, but don’t let it get you down on Robinson. He looks like a solid WR2 with WR1 upside in all fantasy formats.
My thoughts: I like Robinson, but not quite enough to say he is a top three player in this draft class. I think the eighth pick is right about where he belongs. He does have good talent and a nice long term outlook as I think he is going to be a better pro than fellow rookie Marqise Lee, but I think the quarterback play and general skill level of the team around him is going to hold him back a little bit. I think WR2 is more his upside and it might be a year or two before he makes it there due to the team around him. He’s a nice choice at this spot.
1.09– Eric Ebron, TE DET
My thoughts: Ebron is the last player in my second tier of rookies in this class and getting him at the ninth slot in this mock is great value. Ebron had being going more in the middle of the first round but recent reports out of Detroit saying he has been struggling have caused his stock to slip a bit. I’m going to let you in on a not so secret piece of knowledge – rookie tight ends almost always struggle. The transition from college to the NFL at the tight end position is larger than just about any other position outside of quarterback. They need to be able to block defensive ends and outside linebackers in both the run and passing game as well as run routes. In short, it takes time.
In regards to Ebron, he is in the perfect position for long term significance. Detroit is one of the league’s top offenses and they are stocked with a lot of talent. Defenses won’t be able to devote too much effort towards Ebron, which means he can use his supreme athleticism to dominate over the middle of the field. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him as the number two option in the passing game in a year or two. He’s that good. Don’t sleep on him just because he is struggling a bit to adjust to the NFL.
1.10– Devonta Freeman, RB ATL
Ghost’s thoughts: Freeman should get a ton of work in quick order. Steven Jackson can’t hang around forever. Once he’s gone, Freeman should be firmly established as the bell cow in Atlanta
My thoughts: This is easily the earliest Freeman has gone in one of our writer rookie mock drafts and it isn’t close. In fact, he was a third round pick in our mock right after the NFL Draft. Since then, the hype train has been doing what it does and pushing his value sky high. I’ve said it all along I don’t see anything more than someone who is very average when I look at Freeman. To put it a different way, I think he is another Daniel Thomas. He’s very average and projects as a backup in my eyes, but the situation is making people overlook the talent. My guess is that Jackson will be the guy as long as he is healthy this year and the Falcons will put an emphasis on finding their next starting running back next off-season, either in the draft or free agency with Freeman as the backup. Given the talent in this draft, I think taking Freeman anywhere in the first 15-20 picks is a bit of a reach.
1.11– Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
Eric H’s thoughts: I’m starting to come around on him. The Panthers took him in the first round, so they obviously see something they like and he has little to no competition for targets outside of Greg Olsen. My concerns about his speed/agility remain, but he’s been putting in the off-season work with Cam Newton, so hopefully we’ll start to see signs of positional refinement.
My thoughts: I struggle a little bit with Benjamin when it comes to my evaluations. His size is impressive no matter how you slice it and with it he should be a major threat in the red zone and going up for jump balls. The problem is pretty much every ball is going to be a contested jump ball because he doesn’t have the speed nor agility to separate much if at all at the NFL level. I feel like a lot of his value is based on a lack of competition at his position and the fact he was a first round pick. Depth will be added to the position. As far as his first round status, the Panthers haven’t exactly been the best evaluator of offensive skill position players in the draft. Their lone success in the last several years is Newton and he was first overall. It will be interesting to see what Benjamin becomes, but I expect him to be little more than a complement and role player.
1.12– Jeremy Hill, RB CIN
Eric O’s thoughts: I really like Jeremy Hill’s potential to have stand alone value in fantasy leagues alongside Giovani Bernard. I think he’ll have a similar role to Fred Jackson in Buffalo even though the Bengals have publicly stated they want to get Gio 230 carries and 70 catches. Hill’s value is going to come at the stripe to prevent wear and tear on Bernard. Hill won’t get carries at Bernard’s expense, he’s going to get carries at the passing game’s expense. Expect Andy Dalton‘s attempts to come way down.
My thoughts: When it comes to Hill, my major concern comes down to opportunity. If Bernard is as good as people expect him to be (he’s the RB3 in DLF’s rankings), how is Hill going to be someone you can start as anything more than a bye week fill in or flex play? I just don’t see enough points to go around for Hill to be worth an early selection. Should Bernard get injured or not be what everyone hopes and expects, then Hill could be a low end RB2, but I think Bernard puts a major limit on Hill’s value.
That concludes our look at the first round. We will be back with the later rounds very soon!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
