DLF’s Weekly Impact Events


Football is so close, you can smell the vulcanized rubber. Training camps around the country have begun, fantasy owners have scheduled their local drafts and your friends have already begun arguing over who has the best chili recipe. The most exciting development, for me, is there’s actual news to review. We don’t have to discuss what currency Johnny Manziel’s phone is made from. We’re not being forced to dwell on past fantasy failures. The future is now, and for your fantasy team, the future is bright.

Everyone begins the fantasy year with a similar level of optimism. Whether you play dynasty, redraft or daily, you should stand a similar chance as your opponent at this point (I realize dynasty can be much different). One quality I’ve noticed of seemingly every fantasy champion is resilience. This year, you will have star players miss time due to injury. You’ll have players who do not reach expectations. You may even turn on the news to see your favorite athlete has broken the law and will therefore be suspended. Your response to these unfortunate events is what will determine your likelihood of winning a championship.

Before you plan your strategic response to these events, you must read about the events themselves. That’s where Impact Events comes in.

Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA

News: Lynch plans to be a holdout from Seattle Seahawks training camp.

Analysis: The consensus DLF opinion on Lynch is a mixed bag. Some consider him a top ten running back, while others think the tires are due to fall off.

We’ve seen the trend of running backs’ contracts decreasing on average. The chance of Lynch receiving a substantially larger contract are slim. I feel the “question marks” completely outweigh the upside since there are other talented running backs in Seattle. The Seahawks have many other contracts to consider upgrading, and as we know, running backs are devalued in today’s game.

Christine Michael will get some play this year. Many are considering him the incumbent in Seattle. I don’t blame them. Michael looked amazing in the 2013 preseason. In the event of a Lynch absense, Michael only has to hold off Robert Turbin for starting duties.

Justin Blackmon, WR JAX

News: The seemingly troubled wideout was arrested again – this time by the Edmond, Oklahoma police for marijuana possession.

Analysis: It’s about as difficult for a fantasy analyst to predict how valuable Blackmon is in dynasty leagues as it is for a fish to climb a tree.

I’ll tell you this, Blackmon is one of the most talented receivers I’ve ever seen. If he’s on the field and healthy, there are only six or seven players I’d prefer to him. We’ve come to know the downside has nothing to do with his ability.

I’m probably safe in assuming Blackmon will not play this year, but dynasty is more than the current season. If you’re selling Blackmon, you’re getting nothing for him. If you’re buying or keeping Blackmon, you could get an all-pro wide receiver or a talented athlete who who will never see the field again.

Ray Rice, RB BAL

[inlinead]?News: Rice was given a two game suspension after being found guilty of aggravated assault from an incident which occurred in an Atlantic City hotel elevator in April.

Analysis: Everyone’s given their opinion on how absurd Rice’s behavior was, but it has very little to do with his dynasty value. To be exact, his dynasty value is only hindered for the first two games of the 2014 season. Rice is still a talented running back who deserves respect in the fantasy world.

Bernard Pierce has been medically cleared for training camp and will get every opportunity in the first two weeks. Pierce averaged 4.9 yards per carry in 2012 and looked stellar in the Ravens Super Bowl run. If Pierce outperforms Rice in camp, he could run away with the job in 2014. We’ve seen Gary Kubiak allow Arian Foster to take over the starting job as an undrafted player. It wouldn’t be surprising if Kubiak encouraged Pierce to take the reigns in the new offense.

Roddy White, WR ATL

News: The Atlanta Falcons and White agreed on a four-year, $30 million extension. The deal includes $10 million in guaranteed money and White will receive $18 million over the first two years.

Analysis: These contracts can be difficult to understand. I’d love to tell you White will play for four more years and receive every penny of his contract. The likelihood is White will get paid handsomely the next two years, but won’t play much longer. White could also be irrelevant in fantasy in 2016. The good news is you don’t need White to be valuable in the distant future. His cost is considered a short term investment. If you’re a contending team, White could be a big help.

Ben Tate, RB CLE

News: Cleveland Browns Head Coach Mike Petine says, “The best competition might be Tate and Terrance West.”

Analysis: I’m actually very excited to watch the battle for starter’s touches in Cleveland. Tate is a player whom many fantasy owners have invested over the years, but West could steal the show. While I’d consider Tate the most likely to win the job, I’d rather have West at his respective price.

Jamaal Charles, RB KC

News: The Kansas City Chiefs and Charles have agreed to a two-year, $18.1 million extension. The deal includes no guaranteed money beyond 2014.

Anaylsis: While I’m slightly concerned about Charles’ lack of guaranteed money, I still have to show respect. Charles is one of the most talented running backs in the last 20 years. The chance of Charles sustaining success in Kansas City is high given the offense he’s in.

Julio Jones, WR ATL

News: Atlanta Falcons Head Coach Mike Smith confirms Jones is healthy and able to participate in training camp, but his reps will be limitied.

Analysis: I find it generally difficult to quantify injuries. Our own Scott Peak did a wonderful article highlighting Jones’ injury.

The abilities I am able to quantify all point to Jones being a great receiver. I no longer do the top-100 rankings for DLF, but if I were to, Jones would be a top five asset. He’s attached to a Pro Bowl quarterback for the foreseeable future and his talent is second to none.

I find it nearly impossible to believe there will be a single fantasy owner who will not have to deal with injury, suspension or poor performance. This year, let’s challenge our inner Zen. When a player gets injured, don’t cry. Move on. Find a replacement before the other owners in your league have the chance to block you. Championships are won on the waiver wire and through trades. I challenge all of you to be more like an NFL coach. Have fun, but know this is similar to a business. Don’t dwell on what could have been.



  1. Kong

    July 25, 2014 at 3:54 am

    Wasn’t M. Lynch thought to be facing a league suspension for his recent DUI? When in Buffalo. I thought he was involved in a hit and run. He also had a firearm issue along w this DUI. That’s three incidents. Anyone have any insight on this?

    • kcDemonSlayer

      July 25, 2014 at 6:15 am

      Lynch was suspended once before but it was not due to breaking the league’s substance abuse policy. So the DUI would have been the 1st infraction there but it got pushed back for 2 years and then was dropped this offseason which means no conviction and he still has not had a single infraction of the same rule that Blackmon/Gordon are facing….if that was your question.

  2. Ray Rice

    July 25, 2014 at 9:23 am

    As a Ray Rice owner, should I try to acquire Bernard Pierce for Josh Gordon?
    I still believe in Gordon, but don’t have much faith in Rice in a RB heavy league.

    Any thoughts???

    • SJ

      July 25, 2014 at 11:05 am

      I still have faith in Rice and definitely have none in Pierce. It’s funny to me that people want to bury veterans as soon as they start to show cracks of decline, my guess for that is because too many FF players have been left holding the bag “like an idiot” when a good NFL player surprisingly falls off. But there is still the argument that some players bounce back and Rice’s offseason surely prepares him for that. Let’s see what he looks like in Training Camp before casting him aside.

      To me, Pierce has looked average when he was a rookie, on a good team that won the SuperBowl. He’s never blown anyone away with his skill set and is a capable backup but no one will make the argument he deserves to be a NFL featured back, not even going back to his draft stock or rookie season. Those saying he should be “featured” this year are just people that want to see Rice go away, again, for whatever reason.

      The 2-game suspension is par for the course for any player without any past legal/conduct issues. So those asking for a 4+ game ban for Rice just don’t understand the NFL’s process on handing down player suspensions. Obviously if Rice messes up again, whatever that may be, he’ll get a longer suspension as a repeat offender.

      I guess you can handcuff Rice with Pierce, but Gordon still seems too high a price to me.

  3. Ray Rice

    July 25, 2014 at 11:23 am


    I appreciate the input. As a follow-up:

    if you were going to trade Gordon for picks, what would you expect in return? … Or do you just keep Gordon and hope he can bounce back?

    • Draythron

      July 25, 2014 at 12:34 pm

      I keep Gordon….no way I let go of him….As for Pierce, I actually think he looked great, if not better than Rice…very explosive to be as big as he is…Last year was injury riddled for he and Rice.

      • Jesse

        July 25, 2014 at 3:58 pm

        I posted a long comment about this in another topic and got killed but there is NO WAY I would trade Gordon unless the deal was way too good to turn down. It is pretty common knowledge on the Cleveland beat that Gordon didn’t fail a drug test but actually missed it due to travel issues. Instead he gave a hair sample (nearly impossible to cheat) and passed. The problem is that technically by missing the original test it is being considered a failed test. There is nothing in the collective bargaining agreement to cover a hair test. The thing is don’t you think if he and the Browns didn’t know he was going to be back this year that they would have let him go through OTAs and start Mini camp today (which has been widely reported he was there). If he gets the whole year suspension that would mean he couldn’t return next year until after OTAs and minicamp and would have to start the year next year basically with no training? I think all signs point to a 4-8 game suspension and he is back tearing it up mid season. At that point I would definitely consider trading him but not right now. His value is never going to be lower than it is right now. People forget that before all this he was in the 1.01 – 1.04 range in dynasty drafts. I think with back to back 200 yd games like he did last year you could ask for anything you wanted and get it. Thats my advice.

      • SJ

        July 25, 2014 at 5:17 pm

        I seem to remember this comment above.. long story short, I completely disagree and believe Gordon IMO, never plays an NFL down this year. However, unless I get a high 2nd rounder, Id likely just keep him on the roster till 2015, act like hes an IR player and hope he changes his life for the better.

        The commenter above makes some decent points, but the NFL and its CBA is built towards punishing repeat offenders and Gordon is definitely at the top the repeat offender list. Repeat offenders get multi-game suspensions. Hes already gotten a 2 game ban (which I think was possibly a 4 game before appeal – pls correct me if Im wrong), and is in stage 3 of the substance abuse program. Hes getting a 16 game ban without question, and his recent antics have likely cost him a winning appeal.

        • SJ

          July 25, 2014 at 5:22 pm

          I should also mention that was a high second rounder for this year, not 2015. Might as well wait and decide for that pick around draft time next year, or towards the end of this years season.

          • Jesse

            July 25, 2014 at 8:33 pm

            It was reported on NFL.com that Gordon did take the field today. Add that to the Media heat is catching for only giving Rice 2 games I still think all signs point to the 4-8 games. I would be shocked if he caught a year.

  4. Will

    July 25, 2014 at 5:02 pm

    If i wanted to trade for Roddy White what value am I looking to send, a 2nd rd pick in 2015?

    • Matt

      July 25, 2014 at 6:25 pm

      I just acquired him in a 12 team league as I am trying to contend now. I gave up a 2014 #12 overall pick in our rookie draft this year. I also have Dez and C. Patterson

      • chris in Chuck

        July 25, 2014 at 7:59 pm

        Roddy White for the #12 is a ridiculous score.
        Congrats on that!

  5. Will

    July 25, 2014 at 5:03 pm

    Also I love this years format of Weekly Impact


    straight forward and to the point

    • Karl Safchick

      July 26, 2014 at 10:17 pm

      Thank you. I believe Ryan did something similar without formatting it as such. When I started I did a paragraph detailing the news, then a paragraph of analysis. Now I do it as you say, and it’s become easier for me and clear for the reader. I’m glad you agree. Thank you for reading.

  6. chris in Chuck

    July 25, 2014 at 7:58 pm

    I wouldn’t sell Gordon for anything below a 1.7 pick this year or an expected 1.5 pick next year.

    And to my estimation that’s the lowest sale price I could imagine contemplating. I’d prefer to hold Gordon at those prices. In face, I view Gordon as a great buy candidate for a second round pick. That’s a ridiculous price that any team ought to consider.

    A rebuilding team should consider that a quick stop up to contention. A contender ought to consider it a great buy-low toward the title.

  7. JBFootball

    July 26, 2014 at 10:14 am

    If I have my 2 starters at rb and spiller is my 3rd rb, would it be crazy to trade spiller for c Michael? I also have Melvin Gordon, mike Davis and Derrick Henry coming to my team over the next 2 yrs. not to mention I have Bryce brown who could be the bills starter next year with spiller and Jackson in contract yrs.

    • SJ

      July 26, 2014 at 5:05 pm

      Probably not crazy, but youre definitely not getting much value for Spiller. Michael is arguably at his highest price right now – everything is breaking his way, the longer Lynch holds out. You could do two things – wait out the Lynch situation and see if/when Michaels price drops, or try to get something extra.

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