Final Pre-Draft Rookie Mock Draft: Round Three
May is now upon us. Any other year, that means we would be discussing the impact of your favorite running back getting drafted as a backup to Jamaal Charles. Or what it means for Trent Richardson that the Colts drafted two running backs in the first five rounds. Of course this isn’t any other year. The NFL pushed the draft back a few weeks, which means there has been even more scrutiny and effort put into evaluating this year’s crop of rookies.
Sometimes it is tough to tell what to believe and where to look, especially in a draft class like this one that is very deep and without a whole lot of separation in certain spots. In order to help you sift through the mud and gunk that is “lying season” in the NFL, we’re here with around one of our staff only rookie mock drafts.
Here is a quick refresher on the guidelines given to our drafters before each mock begins:
1) Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
2) Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
3) Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly okay. There is no group think here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. It happens!
This is our last look at the draft order before we know the teams they will be playing for. Situation does matter, especially at the running back position, so the order will change by the end of draft weekend. Speaking of draft weekend, the next rookie mock will be started by our staff on draft weekend. I’ll put the picks as soon as the draft is complete with a write-up to follow a few days after the draft is completed.
If you want to take a look back at previous mock drafts, here are the links for you:
Pre-Combine Mock: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3
Post-Combine Mock: Round1, Round 2 and Round 3. Risers and Fallers article.
We continue with a look at the third and final round of the mock draft. This is where you’re going to see a lot of our favorite high upside players. The majority of these players could easily go undrafted in fantasy leagues by the time drafts actually roll around, but at the current time we like the potential in this group.
3.01 – Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE Washington
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.09
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.11
Eric H’s thoughts: Seferian-Jenkins is quickly becoming the forgotten man as Eric Ebron and Jace Amaro have seemingly established themselves as the draft’s top two options at the tight end position. This is likely directly tied to his Combine inaction, but whatever the reason is, I think snaring him in the third round is a coup. He’s plenty big and fast enough and knows how to score the ball – I still believe he possesses a TE1 ceiling.
My thoughts: When it comes to ASJ, the question for me has never been about ability, physical talents, or ceiling. He has the skill set to possibly become the best tight end in this draft class, even over Ebron, because he has the body to be a complete tight end in the mold of a Rob Gronkowski. My questions all come down to effort and desire to play the game. This past year his weight fluctuated, his effort was inconsistent and he didn’t really have the drive – that’s a pretty big red flag for me. The upside is definitely there, though, so I’m pouncing on him anywhere in the third round if he is there and I’m thinking about it in the late second.
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3.02 – Blake Bortles, QB Central Florida
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.02
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.03
Jeff M’s thoughts: Bortles certainly has a bit of work to do if he is to capitalize on the opportunity in front of him, but among the quarterbacks in this draft class, his ceiling is as high as any (which honestly isn’t as high as you’d like). If he can sort out some fundamental issues with his footwork and mechanics, we could have a top 15-18 type quarterback on our hands. And if not, I drafted him in the third round, so I’m not out much.
My thoughts: I think Jeff is dead on with his comments, especially about the ceiling of this year’s quarterback class not being nearly as high as people want to believe. I think that any of them being a consistent top ten fantasy quarterback would be a major victory for the draft class. The ceiling for the whole bunch is most likely high end QB2’s. As for Bortles, if he is the first quarterback off the board in the NFL Draft, he’ll be taken in the second round in rookie drafts. I’m not willing to spend that price given how deep this draft is at other positions. In the second you can get people who would be late firsts in any other year. Even in the third round I think I might have gone with a high upside receiver or tight end. The quarterbacks just don’t excite me this year.
3.03 – Jared Abbrederis, WR Wisconsin
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.05
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.06
Dan’s thoughts: After a less than spectacular combine from Abbrederis, many dynasty owners quickly forgot how impressive he was at the Senior Bowl and moved the former Badger down their draft boards. I still believe he should be taken in the late second or early third round of rookie drafts. A former walk-on at Wisconsin, hard work propelled Abbrederis to two All-Big Ten selections. He has excellent hands and runs great routes. Most likely, he’ll begin his career as a special teams contributor and fourth or fifth wide receiver for whoever selects him so dynasty owners that invest a draft pick in him will need to be patient. In my opinion, Abbrederis will emerge as a quality WR3 with WR2 upside for dynasty owners willing to wait for his productions. In the third round of rookie drafts, that’s exactly what I’m looking for.
My thoughts: Dan and I have been two of Abbrederis’s biggest supporters over the last few months. While he doesn’t have the athletic ability of a top flight receiver in the NFL, his work ethic, route running, and knowledge of how to play the position are all one of if not the best out of any wide receiver in this draft class. He is bound to be a coach favorite and a solid locker room presence for whichever team scoops him up. Like Dan, I expect him to start out as a core special teamer, possibly a return man, and a backup wide receiver. I don’t think it will be too long before he finds the field though and on a team with a proficient passing game, he could push for fantasy WR3 numbers.
3.04 – Martavis Bryant, WR Clemson
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.07
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: Undrafted
Scott P’s thoughts: I’m not a huge fan but at 3.04, I’ll take the shot on Bryant. He has great size and speed. I wasn’t overly impressed with the video I watched, but again I’m not a scout. His hands seemed suspect and his route running didn’t look polished. He didn’t seem overly enthused when blocking for his teammates. Still, he made some nice plays in the red zone and hopefully he gets coached up in the NFL. The talent is there.
My thoughts: I feel a little bit like Bryant became lost in the shuffle at Clemson and he didn’t like that he was an afterthought. As a result, he seemed like a player who was a little disgruntled this year and wasn’t putting in full effort. I have no idea if that is true, it is just the impression I get when I watch him. His concentration was a little hit and miss as was the effort. Physically, he has the talent to be an NFL receiver, but the other parts of his game will need a little bit of improvement.
3.05 – Colt Lyerla, TE Oregon
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.10
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.08
Tim’s thoughts: This was my favorite pick of my draft. Lyerla is a first/second round NFL talent with all kinds of off field baggage. There are two possibilities – he cleans up or he gets chewed up. I’m fine with that at 3.05. Lyerla has massive upside. Barring the off field stuff, he’d be the TE2 on many draft boards. Now he probably goes undrafted in the NFL. I don’t care. In the third round, I’m playing with house money.
My thoughts: Lyerla is this year’s Da’Rick Rogers. He has massive physical skills and huge upside. He is also more than a little bit of a headcase who isn’t going to get too many chances in the NFL. Like Tim said, the talent is one of the best in this draft class at the tight end position, but he is going to need to land on a team with some veteran leadership who will teach him how to be a pro. If it works, he has the skills to push for top five at the position. Most likely he will wash out, but the high reward players are what you want in the third round.
3.06 – Troy Niklas, TE Notre Dame
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.06
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.01
Ghost’s thoughts: This makes two tight ends in three picks for me, wow. Nonetheless, Niklas will be a nice contributor no matter where he falls. It’s going to be impossible not to put this kid on the field in very short time. Once a team works him into their game plan, watch out – especially in TE premium leagues.
My thoughts: When I look at Niklas, I see someone who is pro-ready from a physical standpoint, but one who should have stayed in college for another year to refine his game as well. If he had done so, he could have pushed for the top tight end on the board next year. As it stands right now, I think he is going to need a year or two or three before he picks up the finer points of playing the position. It already takes a long time for most tight ends to transition to the pro game. When they make the jump before they are ready, it takes even longer. He’s a great taxi squad target, though. Just make sure you’re ready.
3.07 – Paul Richardson, WR Colorado
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.12
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.02
Brian’s thoughts: Richardson has elite athletic ability and can make adjustments with his feet or in the air to make plays. He has a long frame that will allow him to add muscle, but how quickly he can add muscle to suppress the durability questions remains to be seen. Richardson can use his quick feet and speed to beat defenders outside the numbers with his first two steps. He is raw, but if he can improve his focus, weight, and route running he could be a nice addition for any team looking to add a speedster to stretch the secondary.
My thoughts: I really like Richardson as a college player, but my questions for him all revolve around his role (or rather lack thereof) in the NFL. He is too small to go up against NFL sized defenders as anything more than a situational deep threat. To me, I think he is almost guaranteed to be a return man and little else. Is there a chance for him to turn into a full time receiver? Of course there is. But unless he can add a lot of muscle to his frame while still keeping his speed, I don’t see it happening. He is a decent upside pick in the middle of the third round, but he shouldn’t go any sooner in my mind.
3.08 – Bruce Ellington, WR South Carolina
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: Undrafted
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.11
Jeff B’s thoughts: Call it a gut feeling (possibly indigestion), but Ellington (5-9, 197 lbs, 4.45 40 yard dash) is my favorite sleeper in draft class and I’m trying to position myself to snag him around this point in the third round in all of my leagues. He reminds me a lot of Randall Cobb (except with better measurables) on film and like Cobb (5-10, 191 pounds, 4.46 40 yard dash), I expect him to take a couple of years to develop. If you end up drafting this player, be sure to have patience!
My thoughts: I wasn’t very high on Ellington prior to the combine due to size concerns – then he showed how good of an athlete he actually is at the combine and it helped to ease some of those concerns for me. Someone with his speed and agility could be a monster in the slot. He is a little raw and will need to refine his game a bit, but if you’re patient, I think you could be in for a big reward. He’s a third round target of mine as well and a perfect taxi squad candidate.
3.09 – Derek Carr, QB Fresno State
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: Undrafted
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: Undrafted
Eric O’s thoughts: This pick came down to Carr or Devonta Freeman. I went with Carr because I like his long term potential in the NFL with his cannon arm. There is little doubt in my mind people have a bad opinion of him because of his brother’s shortcomings. I’ve even heard people on TV say he would be the first quarterback selected if his last name wasn’t Carr. While I don’t necessarily agree with that, I agree the premise of what they’re saying. I would love to see him in Minnesota under Norv Turner’s tutelage .
My thoughts: Carr has some talent, but like the rest of this quarterback draft class, I question his upside. I don’t think any of them will be able to be more than an average starter in the NFL, Carr included. As for him specifically, I think he will need a fair amount of time to transition from the spread system to a pro system. In college he was easily flustered by blitzes and last minute changes in coverage – that is what NFL defenses do on almost every play. He has a long ways to go. I think I would rather spend the pick on someone with more upside at a different position.
3.10 – Jarvis Landry, WR LSU
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.04
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.12
Ken K’s thoughts: When it gets this late in the draft, I tend to grab players from power conferences who had a history of production. Landry fits the bill here as he posted a 77/1,193/10 line last season for LSU. He’s not flashy or dynamic, but he has a chance and I think his combine performance is being a bit overblown.
My thoughts: Views on Landry are all over the board. Some people look at what he did in college and think he can transition to the NFL with similar production and results. Others look at him, especially his combine performance and wonder how he was ever productive in the first place! Those are obviously two extremes, but I’m closer to the latter of the two. I don’t think Landry has the physical tool set to be anything more than depth on an NFL team. I think his fantasy relevance will be limited, which means I’m going to avoid him on draft day in favor of players I think have more upside.
3.11 – Devonta Freeman, RB Florida State
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.07
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.10
Ryan M’s thoughts: Freeman seems to be a player not many like as he often falls to the third round – it happens again in this mock. Freeman easily outplayed fellow prospect James Wilder Jr. during their time at Florida State and has the work ethic to help him succeed in the league. He is an extremely durable and a very tough runner. Despite his thick build, he can be an elusive back and find holes when needed. Unless he ends up in an ideal spot, he likely continues to fall to the third round of rookie drafts, making him a player I’d gladly take a shot on.
My thoughts: I’m one of those people Ryan is talking about when he mentioned people not liking Freeman. He has decent size and isn’t completely void of talent, but every time I watch him play I get a little bored. He doesn’t have any glaring holes, but he doesn’t really have any exceptional strengths. He’s just very average in my book. I imagine him being a decent backup or change of pace back in the NFL, but he doesn’t have the skill set to be anything more than that. He’s likely to be a middle to late round pick by an NFL team in need of a backup with an established bell cow, someone like the Bears or Vikings. He won’t be on the field much and isn’t going to be their back of the future, just emergency depth.
3.12 – Jerick McKinnon, RB Georgia Southern
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: Undrafted
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: Undrafted
My thoughts: If this was an actual draft, McKinnon wouldn’t be my pick in this spot. There are at least three or four other players higher on my board at this point in time like Tyler Gaffney, Storm Johnson and Dri Archer. Since this is a mock draft, I wanted to use the chance to highlight someone who has a bit of buzz about him at the current point in time and where better to do so than the last pick of our mock draft.
McKinnon had a very fluid role at Georgia Southern, playing a mix of read-option quarterback, wildcat running back and triple option running back. He’s part quarterback and part running back, but all athlete if you look at his combine drills. He’s 5’9” and around 210 pounds, but he ran a 4.41 second forty, did more bench press reps than almost every lineman at the combine (32 reps), and out jumped almost every wide receiver who was there with a 40.5” vertical and 132 inch broad jump. From a physical stand point, he is almost as big of a freak as Jadeveon Clowney is.
The problem with McKinnon is he doesn’t know how to be a running back and it is going to be a difficult transition for him. He looks great in the open field, but as soon as contact is made he plays like a quarterback and goes down. It is extremely rare to see him power through a defender or break a tackle because he has the quarterback mindset of going down on contact to avoid getting hurt. If he is ever going to see the field as a running back, he needs to change that part of him. There are also questions about teams transitioning him to a different position because of his freak athletic abilities, such as defensive back. He’s someone to watch at this point, but don’t take too big of a risk on him.
This is it for our pre-NFL Draft mock. I’ll be back shortly with a discussion on the major risers and fallers from the post-combine mock draft to this one. The next rookie mock will be taking place on draft weekend, We will be starting on Saturday and I’ll be tweeting out the picks as they happen to give those of you drafting right after the NFL Draft an idea of if the draft changed anything for us. I’ll also post a full draft report as soon as our draft is done to help you prepare!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
