Pre-Combine Rookie Mock Draft: Round One
It seems tough to believe, but it is already the middle of February. The NFL combine kicks into full gear this weekend! For a lot of people, this weekend is their first time to get a firsthand look at a lot of the 2014 rookies. It is also the official start of the rookie fever season. Once people get to see the athletes with their own eyes they instantly start to fall in love. Few players rocket up draft boards like a 230 pound running back that runs a 4.40 second forty or a 6’3” receiver that jumps a 38” vertical while running a sub 4.4 forty.
This mock is designed to give you our impressions of the players prior to the combine measurements and performances. There are several players with question marks in terms of size, speed and just about anything else. The combine will definitely impact their standing in rookie drafts and could easily push them up boards if it is a good result or way down if they are shorter, smaller, or slower than expected. To help you with those changes, we will also do a mock draft a few days after the combine.
Here is a quick refresher on the guidelines given to our drafters before each mock begins:
1) Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
2) Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
3) Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. This is especially true at this point in the year when the vast majority of us are just beginning our 2014 rookie evaluations.
The players in this mock, especially in the third round, are players that have caught our eye early in the process. There will be many changes as time goes on, both players shooting up and falling off our draft boards. A perfect example from last year is Le’Veon Bell. He wasn’t drafted in the first round of our initial mock drafts last year, but was a top four pick in our later mock drafts.
Rounds two and three will be appearing in later articles, but here is round one!
1.01 – Sammy Watkins, WR Clemson
Ghost’s thoughts: Watkins is the top player in this draft, very little is arguable about that. He has excellent receiving skills and is great after the catch.
My thoughts: I said this before, and I’ll say it again. There isn’t another choice at this pick at this point in time, regardless of your league setup. The only way that changes is if the combine turns up something disastrous, such as maybe him being 5’10”. Short of that, he’s the first pick in rookie drafts. If you need someone at a different position, trade this pick for a veteran or make the pick and trade Watkins later. I don’t think Watkins is the same level of a prospect as Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, or Julio Jones, but he’s close. He isn’t the biggest, but he is one of the most explosive receivers we have seen in a long time. Think a bigger Tavon Austin or a more complete Cordarrelle Patterson. He managed 14.5 yards per reception when almost sixty percent of his catches were within two yards of the line of scrimmage.
1.02 – Marqise Lee, WR USC
Jeff B’s thoughts: Lee is the number two player on my board, so this was a pretty easy decision. I expect him to test out very impressively at the NFL Combine and if he lands in a good spot in the NFL, he’ll make owners of the 1.01 in their rookie drafts think long and hard about their decision. I still prefer Sammy Watkins at this point, but the difference between Watkins and Lee is much closer than the difference between Lee and Mike Evans in my book.
My thoughts: The gap between Lee and Watkins is a little bit larger in my book than it seems it is in Jeff’s book. Maybe I’m falling prey to the same thing as Keenan Allen last year. Injuries and poor play around Lee definitely took their toll on him this year, much like Allen last year. I think Lee is a better football player than an athlete, so it will be interesting to see what he does at the combine. Right now I have him and Evans almost tied and the combine could help push one of them over the other.
1.03 – Mike Evans, WR Texas A&M
Karl’s thoughts: I feel the 1.03 is the worst place to be in the rookie draft this year. Sammy Watkins is the consensus 1.01, and I still value Marqise Lee enough to be happy with him at 1.02. After those two, there are about eight players who I’d be perfectly content taking at 1.03. Evans seems like a prototypical NFL wide receiver. He has the size, hands and high point ability to make an impact in the league right away. Many dynasty owners will be on the edge of their seats to see what his official 40 time will be. Regardless of his official speed, his game is built on beating corners one on one.
My thoughts: I still feel like the major drop off in this draft is after the third pick, not before it like Karl says. I think Evans is right on par with Lee at this point in the process. The combine could easily make one of them shine much brighter than the other one. If Evans can show better than expected speed and agility at the combine, he could definitely shoot above Lee because Evans is the prototype of a top receiver in just about every other way.
1.04 – KaDeem Carey, RB Arizona
Scott’s thoughts: Carey was incredibly productive at Arizona, with nearly 4,000 yards rushing, 44 total touchdowns and 62 receptions in two years. He’s not the biggest (5’10”, 196 lb), but plays bigger than his size, runs hard, always seems to get positive yards and is capable of the big play. He is agile and has good vision. I think his versatility and talent will fit current NFL offensive designs very well.
My thoughts: In my opinion, the fourth pick in this draft is where things really open up. There are really almost ten players who could reasonably be picked at this spot. If I own the 1.04 or 1.05 in just about any league and no running back separates themselves from the pack over the next few months, I’m definitely trying to trade this pick and pick up a later first plus something else. In terms of Carey, his size combined with a heavy workload over the last two years is a concern. The fact he earned a suspension is also a concern. He is a dynamic athlete through and could be a Giovani Bernard style of back in the NFL.
1.05 – Jordan Matthews, WR Vanderbilt
My thoughts: Like I said before, after the top three there are a multitude of players that could be picked. Matthews had a nice showing during Senior Bowl week and it locked him in as my fourth receiver for the time being. Granted, there is a pretty big gap between him and third, but he’s looking pretty good right now. It is really tough to take a running back right now and too early for a quarterback in a traditional PPR league. That leaves Matthews or a tight end for me.
Matthews is a hard worker who plays football the right way. He runs great routes, gets in and out of breaks cleanly, has soft hands, is a willing blocker and does a nice job of adjusting to poorly thrown balls. The knock against him is he isn’t an exceptional athlete. He can jump, but his top end speed as well as his ability to make defenders miss after the catch isn’t anything special, which could limit his upside a bit. Nonetheless, his productivity and refinement in the passing game will make NFL teams notice.
1.06 – Eric Ebron, TE North Carolina
Ryan’s thoughts: Once we know the landing spots, along with some more height/weight/speed data on each of these players, I think the top TE comes off the board closer to the end of the first round as some of the backs and receivers will gain some value. This early in the process though, I want somewhat of a safe pick and tight end Eric Ebron is one of the safest in the draft. A big and fast tight end, he has been compared to Aaron Hernandez, but only in the good ways. Ebron’s blocking is fine and the team that drafts him won’t be looking for a blocking tight end anyway, they’re looking for that move tight end that is the recent trend in the NFL and Ebron should fit the bill.
My thoughts: Historically speaking, in the majority of leagues the top tight end does go somewhere in the late first round. I understand what Ryan is saying about the other positions rising above, but I really think the tight end position this year is special. It wouldn’t be out of the question for both Ebron and Jace Amaro to go in the middle of the first round. Ebron is the better pure athlete at the tight end position but is a little on the smaller side. Hernandez is a very fair comparison in my opinion.
1.07 – Tre Mason, RB Auburn
Jeff M’s thoughts: When evaluating running backs, I prioritize patience, pad level, vision and decisiveness above all else. Basically, I want the anti-Chris Johnson. Mason has all these attributes in spades. He wastes no time behind the line, vary rarely tries to bounce a run, and shows great agility and vision, especially in the second level. Add in violence atypical for his size and premium performance in the biggest games of 2013 and you have my fifth ranked player rookie drafts. Some worry about his size or lack of a true second gear, but none of those things has ever held back Ray Rice, to whom Mason compares very favorably.
My thoughts: I’m still not sure what to think about Mason. You can’t argue with his production over this past year on some of the biggest stages and against some of the most difficult competition. With that said, he lacks a lot of the special qualities or the wow factor that some look for in running backs. He isn’t the fastest, isn’t the quickest, but he might be one of the most well rounded runners in the draft. Some aren’t going to like the comparison, but a slightly smaller Montee Ball without his work in the passing game is what comes to mind. Keep in mind, I like Montee Ball.
1.08 – Lache Seastrunk, RB Baylor
Andy’s thoughts: Despite his zero reception total this season, Seastrunk is still the best running back in his class. The Baylor offense did not ask him to contribute in the passing game, but he has done it in prior seasons. He has the best combination of balance, speed and agility in his class. He has his downfalls as he does not have good vision and has not performed as well when facing the best competition. Even though Seastrunk isn’t a bruiser, he can run with enough power and low to the ground to be an effective inside runner.
My thoughts: If you asked five different fantasy writers who the top running back on their board is, it is very possible that you could get five different answers. In the case of Seastrunk, Andy and I disagree. Seastrunk is near the bottom of my top five running backs because I haven’t been very impressed with his vision, which I think is a major requirement for a top flight back. I question his ability to be anything more than the speed part of a committee. When you consider that he’s a speed back without anything proven in the passing game, it could be tough for him to find his way onto the field early on.
1.09 – Kelvin Benjamin, WR Florida State
Dan’s thoughts: In the January mock, I selected TE Jace Amaro with pick 1.10. I would have been just fine selecting him here as well until Benjamin got to me. It’s hard to pass on a guy that is 6’5″ and 235 pounds, looks to have an incredible catch radius and can reportedly run a 4.5 40-yard dash – that’s enough to spark my interest, especially late in the first round. He caught 54 passes for 1,011 yards and 15 touchdowns during his redshirt sophomore year, his only season as a starter. And he caught the game clinching touchdown in the National Championship game. I know this year’s draft is full of talent at receiver, but I was very happy to see him available at pick ten.
My thoughts: I think Benjamin is a prime target to be over-drafted in the early or middle of the first round because he was on such a high profile team and made the winning catch as Dan noted. However, late in the first round it is time to start thinking about him. As many coaches and scouts have said, you can’t coach size. Benjamin definitely has that. I do question what he would have done if he wasn’t on a team with one of the most dynamic quarterbacks and running games in college football this year. I also wonder about his speed and agility and if he’ll be able to separate from NFL defenders on quicker routes instead of just going up and over them.
1.10 – Carlos Hyde, RB Ohio State
Tim’s thoughts: Currently number two at the position on my board behind Ka’Deem Carey. He reinvented himself in his senior year and became a complete back. Other than some off-field concerns, Hyde is a solid prospect. Big bruising player, lacks elite speed but will be a solid goal line, short yardage back. Think LenDale White or Shonn Greene. Running back is a position that is very difficult to project until after free agency and the NFL draft – this group is tightly packed and situation matters more than normal.
My thoughts: I’m glad to see Hyde climb into the first round in this mock, which is where he belongs. Out of all of the running backs who were drafted in the first round of this draft, Hyde is the most complete in terms of size, skill set, and ability. Like Tim, I have Hyde in my top two running backs. On the right team, he could be a great fantasy asset. Upper end RB2 is a very realistic possibility if he ends up on the right team. I think it is very possible that by the time drafts roll around Hyde could be the first running back drafted in almost all leagues.
1.11 – Bishop Sankey, RB Washington
My thoughts: I was really hoping Hyde was going to fall to this pick because I think he is being way undervalued right now. Hyde is in my first tier of running backs for this draft while Sankey is currently in my second tier with a few others. There are a lot of people who feel Sankey might be the best back in this class, though I’m not one of them. I just feel he was the best option at this pick. The team that drafts him will make all of the difference in where he gets drafted in fantasy leagues.
At 205 pounds and 5’10”, he has good size and he was very productive at Washington with 3,496 yards and 37 touchdowns on 644 carries during his time there. He also showed some ability in the passing game, hauling in about 30 catches each of the last two seasons. The problem is that physically he isn’t special in any way. He reminds me a little bit of a smaller Shonn Greene in that respect. I don’t think he’ll be elite by any means, but he could be a solid RB2 for several years if he lands in the right spot.
1.12 – Jace Amaro, TE Texas Tech
Brian’s thoughts: Amaro had a monster 2013 campaign catching 106 passes for 1,300+ yards and seven touchdowns. His 106 catches ranked him in the top 10 among all pass catchers (even ahead of Sammy Watkins). Amaro can lineup all over the field including the backfield. He has prototypical size for a tight end and likes to take on defenders by lowering his shoulder. Amaro does have a checkered background being arrested once for credit card abuse. He has character concerns off the field, but has the ability to be a great receiving tight end in the NFL.
My thoughts: This is a tight end class that could rival the 2010 class. If you are in need of a starter in a year or two, this is your draft with both Amaro and Ebron having very solid prospects in the NFL. If you haven’t seen any of Amaro’s games, you’re missing out. He isn’t blazing fast or overly athletic like a lot of tight ends, but his game reminds me an awful lot of Jason Witten. Amaro is fast enough and has spectacular hands, bringing in just about anything that is within his massive frame. He does a great job of using his body to shield defenders and always seems to be in position to make the catch. There are some character concerns that go with him as Brian mentioned, which could cause him to slide, but he’s extremely talented. If teams are convinced the character issues were just youthful indiscretions, then he could still be drafted quite highly. If he is, he need to be a first round pick in fantasy drafts.
That concludes our look at the first round of our very first rookie mock draft. Stay tuned for the later rounds and future drafts down the road!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
