True Points Redux: The Discussion
Last August I created and detailed the True Points metric. The full reasons behind why I did so can be accessed via the link, but the Cliff’s Notes are basically that I wanted to remove as much scoring bias as possible at the running back position. To do so I subtracted fantasy points gained from touchdowns (somewhat unpredictable) and the point-per-reception (no equivalence on a play-to-play basis), providing a subset of scoring obtained solely from gaining yards (True Points). Simple division by the total number of touches then yielded the True Points per Touch (TPPT) metric.
In my opinion, this provides a clearer appraisal as to how well a running back functions with the ball in his hand. When I evaluate ball carriers this is the first thing I look for, as pure skill should transcend all other traits. Even if touchdowns, and to a lesser extent receptions are hard to come by, a running back with a higher TPPT metric should, at the very least, afford a higher weekly floor.
While no methodology is perfect, I believe the collection of 2012 data did a great job identifying both ascending and declining ball carriers. In this space last year players such as Jamaal Charles, Joique Bell, Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead and Darren Sproles were recommended as potential breakout candidates. Conversely, the TPPT metric warned against Arian Foster, Trent Richardson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Mark Ingram and Darren McFadden. There were certainly misses (CJ Spiller), but adhering to the “process over results” methodology yielded primarily positive results.
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It’s with that in mind that I calculated the TPPT data for the top-50 PPR running backs of 2013. The data is summarized in the previous post, so make sure you check out part one to get familiar with the results.
Discussion
To reiterate what was previously stated, standard deviations were included in order to highlight players who performed outside of their respective average “zones” of efficiency. As I believe this can be an extremely effective predictor of future efforts, I’d like to highlight several of these ball carriers:
Extremely Effective (at least one standard deviation above the average)
Jamaal Charles, KC – A repeat recipient of this fictional distinction, Charles coupled increased rates of scoring and receiving with his typically elite True Point efficiency. In fact, despite an increase of 1.9 touches per game from his 2012 averages, Charles 2013 TPPT of 0.602 was a 10.1% increase on his 2012 value. Combining these sublime numbers with his relatively sparse career workload, I’ll make the following brusque statement – anyone telling you to sell Charles now is simply looking to be a contrarian. In my opinion he remains a top-two dynasty running back, along with his compatriot below.
LeSean McCoy, PHI – Just a hair below Charles, McCoy re-established himself as an elite option. Though Darren Sproles might siphon away some of the passing-down work, McCoy is primed once again to battle Charles for the title of top ball carrier.
Reggie Bush, DET – Don’t let a bout of fumble-itis detract from an otherwise sterling campaign. Bush finished as the overall PPR RB7 and it’s not a mirage. On a per-play basis, he remained Detroit’s best ball carrier and this efficiency should still see him through a potentially reduced workload.
DeMarco Murray, DAL – Many have jumped off the Murray bandwagon due to his injury-prone nature, but for the second time in three years he ripped off an elite statistical clip. In fact, given the addition of Scott Linehan to the coaching staff, Murray could potentially see increased work in the passing game, helping to elevate his ranking even further.
Knowshon Moreno, DEN – As a known Moreno apologist, I feel vindicated by his inclusion in this list. Often described as “just a guy” who “gets what’s blocked,” Moreno’s proficiency both in the running and passing game propelled him to a much more efficient season than many would believe. Leaving Denver hurts, but don’t discount his true abilities – after all, it’s Moreno who’s being detailed in the “extremely effective” section, not Montee Ball.
Shane Vereen, NE – It’s not surprising to see Vereen’s inclusion in this section, as he supplemented elite ability in the passing game with an efficient running style. It’s my belief (as well as that of many others) that he’s the Patriot ball carrier to own moving forward.
Andre Ellington, ARI – Another personal favorite of mine, Ellington ran laps around backfield mate Rashard Mendenhall in 2013. Even if his efficiency dips somewhat and scoring opportunities continue to evade him, a moderate increase in volume could propel this dynamic sophomore into the ranks of the high-end RB2’s.
Marcel Reece, OAK – Look, I’m not going to try to sell you on Reece’s viability in standard formats. At only 4.9 touches per game his efficiency is almost meaningless. With that said, in the last round of a best-ball format you could do a lot worse than his upside.
Darren Sproles, RB PHI – I can definitively say that Sproles suffered directly due to a decrease in volume, not efficiency. 2012’s best ball carrier in terms of TPPT still checked in at number-three overall in 2013, and a switch to a more creative offense (amazingly enough, I think I can say that about another team relative to New Orleans) still leaves him with RB2 upside.
On the Cusp (nearly one standard deviation above the average)
Matt Forte, CHI – This comes with the disclaimer that Charles and McCoy essentially wrecked the curve in the 20-plus-touch category. Even with that, however, Forte turned in arguably the best season of his career. Though he’s getting older and the miles are adding up, there’s every reason to believe he’ll continue in 2014.
DeAngelo Williams, CAR – A fairly surprising inclusion, it just goes to show that there’s still some bite left in this old dog. With the Carolina backfield perpetually in turmoil, he makes for a risky play, but he’s not yet devoid of upside.
Danny Woodhead, SD – Counted out as having little to no value outside of the cozy confines of Foxboro, Woodhead thrived in San Diego. The addition of Donald Brown muddies the waters somewhat, but Woodhead remains the most dynamic back on the roster.
Tread Lightly (nearly one standard deviation below the average)
Eddie Lacy, GB – You can sell me on this being a byproduct of the terrible quarterbacking in Green Bay last year, as well as Lacy functioning as a “keep the lead” back. However, the numbers are what they are, suggesting that Lacy is a bit more volume and touchdown dependent than we’d ultimately prefer.
Chris Johnson, NYJ – I recently spoke with fellow DLF’er Karl Safchick about CJ?K, and our collective opinion was to stay far, far away. Johnson just isn’t the player he once was, and while he continues to impress with his durability, 2009 was a long time ago.
Le’Veon Bell, PIT – Acting as the anti-Forte, Bell was essentially spared from an aberrational performance due to Charles and McCoy raising the standard deviation. While it’s apparently anathema to speak ill of the young Steeler (if I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard about his bad offensive line I’d be a millionaire), the fact is he was a pure volume/touchdown guy in 2013. Maybe he’ll improve upon that, but if I recall correctly that’s what many said about Trent Richardson last year. Suffice it to say, the warning signs are very real here.
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX – If you believe him to be the savior in Oakland it’s time to recalibrate your expectations. Much like Johnson above, at this point in his career he’s more name than game.
Trent Richardson, IND – Welcome back, old friend. There are no more excuses to be made for the former top-three pick – 2014 is “put up or shut up” time.
Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL – I understand that the Atlanta offense as a whole was pathetic last year, but as a passing-down back there’s no excuse for this type of inefficiency.
You’ve Been Warned (at least one standard deviation below the average)
Zac Stacy, STL – As a fan of Stacy, it pains me that he’s in this category. However, his yards-per-carry average was below 4.0 and he hardly functioned in the passing game. Adding in six games versus NFC West opponents San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle and the news doesn’t get much better. There’s obviously room for improvement, but at his current pace Stacy needs volume to maintain dynasty relevance.
Steven Jackson, ATL – Blame the injuries if you want, but S-Jax clearly isn’t the player he once was. His weekly scoring will undoubtedly boil down to whether or not he makes it into the end zone.
Andre Brown, HOU – See Jackson above, only couple that with a diminished role on the depth chart behind Arian Foster. If/when Foster goes down, I’d sell Brown to the highest bidder.
Ray Rice, BAL – If you’re planning on buying low on Rice, it’s because you truly believe his 2013 season was fluky in nature. In reality he was nearly 1.4 standard deviations worse than his counterparts, and given his combination of age and workload there are no guarantees he’ll bounce back.
Rashard Mendenhall, ARI – You might consider picking him back up should he come out of retirement. Don’t. Mendenhall was the second-lowest rated player on the entire list.
Darren McFadden, OAK – McFadden is a player I always find myself making excuses for, but at this point I just can’t anymore. This is his second year in a row of having a divergently poor TPPT value, and there’s no reason to expect a change.
Bobby Rainey, TB – If you’re choosing between he and Mike James to handcuff Doug Martin, go with James. Outside of one big game Rainey had an extremely inefficient season.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, CIN – This year’s booby prize of least efficient TPPT ball carrier goes to Green-Ellis. You can, and should do better for your RB4/5.
Mike Tolbert, CAR – I think the days of people proclaiming Tolbert to be the best back on the Carolina roster are over. He has zero value outside of touchdown-only leagues.
Daniel Thomas, MIA – He’s likely to be cut by Miami and he should be cut from your roster as well. Thomas remains as the case study for why you should ALWAYS consider talent over situation.
Conclusion
I introduced the True Points metric last year as a means to honestly appraise the running back position in a more thorough fashion. Though many choose to think fantasy football is devolving towards making metrics too “cute,” I firmly believe the hit rate provided by the 2012 work-up affords more than enough solid ground upon which this metric can stand. No metric is perfect, but True Points definitively serve to provide a snapshot of a running back’s real efficiency, and also describe each player’s fantasy floor on a per-touch basis in case the touchdowns don’t come. So if you’re looking for an unbiased means of evaluation, be sure to say “true” to yourself.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
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