Post-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two
Wow…
That is the only word that I can think of that is appropriate to put into print to describe the impact of the NFL Draft on this year’s fantasy drafts. You expect to see some changes and you expect there to be a few surprises, but this year exceeded everyone’s expectations by leaps and bounds when it comes to unexpected circumstances arising from draft weekend. As I was watching the draft, I think I could almost hear the collective gasps and screams of frustration as player after player fell into bad situations while players that many had lower on the fantasy pecking order went to the prime spots.
No one expected Eddie Lacy to be the fourth running back off the board. What made it even worse is that he went to a pass first team AND is being joined by fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin. Tavon Austin going to the Rams wasn’t a surprise, but him being joined by college teammate Stedman Bailey shakes things up a bit. EJ Manuel being the first quarterback off the board to the Bills (instead of Ryan Nassib) was yet another twist. Everyone was drooling over New England adding a wide receiver, but they didn’t want it to be Aaron Dobson and/or Josh Boyce.
I could go on and on for quite some time, but let’s get down to business. In order to give you a little peek into the minds of our DLF writers, we bring you yet another mock draft, this one started just as the NFL draft was finishing up on Saturday. Keep in mind that we assumed PPR rules for our draft. The person making the pick was asked to give some comments on why they made the pick and then I added a few of my own thoughts as well.
If you want to take a look at previous mock drafts that we have done to get a sense of the risers and fallers, here you go:
Pre-combine: Round 1 and Round 2
Post-combine: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3
Pre-draft: Round 1, Round 2, and Round 3
Post-draft: Round 1
2.01 – Tyler Eifert, TE CIN
(Pre-Combine 1.09, Post Combine 1.09, Pre Draft 1.09)
Mark’s thoughts: It may have been a case of the Bengals simply taking the BPA approach, but I think the selection was a statement about how the organization views Jermaine Gresham. I believe Eifert was picked to be the primary pass catching tight end in Cincinnati and still think he’ll be a dominant tight end in a short amount of time.
My thoughts: I’m not sure that the choice of Eifert by Cincinnati is as much of an indictment as Mark thinks it was – I just think the Bengals were looking for another big receiver and Eifert was safer than any of the wide receivers available. I think both Eifert and Gresham will be on the field a lot, but they will limit each other quite a bit. I don’t see him getting more than TE2 numbers unless Gresham leaves in free agency when his contract is up.
2.02 – EJ Manuel, QB BUF
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 3.09, Pre Draft 3.01)
Jeff H’s thoughts: Many will call this pick a reach, but in the second round, it’s a great place to get the first quarterback off the board. Playing in Buffalo as a quarterback requires a strong arm and Manuel has just that. When you combine that with his ability to break from the pocket and pick up yardage with his feet, the Bills now have the nucleus of a young, speed-based offense. He’s raw, but I like Manuel’s chances of starting prior to the end of the year to gain valuable experience. The first quarterback off the board has a higher success rate.
My thoughts: I wouldn’t have taken Manuel at this spot, but I can understand why Jeff did. The potential is there for Manuel to be the next read-option quarterback and become a fantasy stud. I just don’t think he will be able to pull it off. If he is halfway between Tim Tebow and Colin Kaepernick, I’m not sure if he’ll be a starter five years from now. The Bills will give him every chance to succeed, so that definitely counts for something.
2.03 – Johnathan Franklin, RB GB
(Pre-Combine 2.07, Post Combine 2.08, Pre Draft 1.07)
My thoughts: In the first round I mentioned I felt several rookies have a chance to outplay players drafted earlier than they were by the same teams. I think that just might be the case with Franklin. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he ends up outproducing Eddie Lacy in fantasy leagues. Franklin’s skill set just seems to fit better with the Packers offense.
Lacy will definitely get the short yardage and goal line carries that Aaron Rodgers doesn’t take, but outside of those situations, I think Franklin has the superior skill set. He definitely catches the ball better and is more elusive out in space. He also has more speed and can make people miss instead of just running them over. I like the value in the second round. The only other running back I considered was Zac Stacy.
2.04 – Zach Ertz, TE PHI
(Pre-Combine 1.06, Post Combine 2.01, Pre Draft 2.02)
Jeff B’s thoughts: I’m all in on the Eagles’ offensive players with Chip Kelly at the helm. Ertz comes in the same mold as Jimmy Graham – very athletic for his size and possessing excellent hands, but not particularly great as a blocker. The presence of Brent Celek and James Casey on the roster understandably lowers Ertz’s immediate stock, but I think there’s still good value in getting him here in the second round. In the long run, there’s no doubt in my mind Kelly will find as many ways to utilize his talents as possible. Plus, this is a shallow class at the tight end position, so if it’s a need, there won’t be much left to choose from in subsequent rounds anyways.
My thoughts: I’m not sure the Jimmy Graham comparisons are all that fair. Graham is a supreme athlete and I just don’t see that with Ertz. He is a true pass catcher, which means in two tight end sets he should always be going out on a route. I’m just not sure how many passes there will be to go around. Chip Kelly’s offense is centered around the running backs, then there are also two talented receivers that will be higher on the pecking order. This is a messy situation for Ertz.
2.05 – Terrance Williams, WR DAL
(Pre-Combine 2.05, Post Combine 3.02, Pre Draft 2.12)
Tim’s thoughts: Proving this is a deep wide receiver class, I’m lucky to get Williams with the seventeenth overall selection. Miles Austin and Jason Witten aren’t going to be around forever and Dallas has proven it can support multiple fantasy relevant receiving threats. Williams is a dynamic down the field player who could become a nice complement to Dez Bryant. He is worth every penny here.
My thoughts: If things work out well for Williams, he has a chance to be Dez’s wingman for the next 5-10 years – that’s quite a bit of upside for a second round fantasy pick and he was the only non-running back I considered at 2.03. While he is unlikely to do much this year in fantasy leagues, he might to enough to make the cap-strapped Cowboys consider moving on from Austin in 2014. If you draft Williams, do so with the intent of seeing results in 2014, not 2013. I love the pick.
2.06 – Zac Stacy, RB STL
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 3.05, Pre Draft 2.11)
Ryan’s thoughts: I have watched a lot of Stacy throughout his college career and have always come away impressed. While he lacks the flash of some of the more high profile players, he has been a solid starter. Once Steven Jackson and the Rams parted ways, each dynasty owner seemed to make a choice – Isaiah Pead or Daryl Richardson. Richardson was the better performer in their rookie season, but Pead was the higher pick. Which would the Rams choose? Now, it seems they may not fully trust either as they’ve added Stacy to the mix. I think Stacy could come in and win the job, in a similar fashion to Vick Ballard for the Colts a year ago. And like Ballard, I don’t see Stacy as a future stud running back, but I do expect him to gain value and is a nice pick in the mild second round.
My thoughts: A high character guy with a nice skill set. He makes the perfect complement to Pead, whom I think is more talented than Richardson, in the running game. While his upside might be limited a bit because of the committee and because he isn’t a homerun threat, he can definitely turn into a very nice RB3/flex play for fantasy teams. Hard to ask for more out of a back you are drafting in the middle of the second round!
2.07 – Travis Kelce, TE KC
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine Undrafted, Pre Draft 3.06)
Andy’s thoughts: He was my 11th ranked rookie player. Not only is he excellent in space, but he has soft hands and is the best blocker of his class. I love the fit in Kansas City as he will be a dynamic three down player who could become Alex Smith’s safety valve and help clear the way for Jamaal Charles.
My thoughts: I think that you could probably make an argument that Kelce should be the top rated tight end coming out of this year’s draft. He is one of the more complete tight ends and he landed in the perfect situation. Andy Reid likes using his tight ends over the middle of the field and Alex Smith likes throwing to them. He is one of the few tight ends in this class who are in a spot where I can see them producing TE1 fantasy numbers in a few years.
2.08 – Geno Smith, QB NYJ
(Pre-Combine 1.04, Post Combine 2.04, Pre Draft 1.10)
Eric H’s thoughts: Due to situational circumstance, the other positions have fallen off a metaphorical cliff. With EJ Manuel long gone, I decided to go with arguably the draft’s next best signal caller. Though Smith tumbled further than expected, he still landed in one of the few remaining destinations offering an immediate starting opportunity. Though the Jets are the definition of a dumpster fire, Smith’s athleticism (as well as the likelihood of being constantly forced to play from behind) should afford him some upside potentially as soon as 2013.
My thoughts: I’m a bit of a quarterback hater when it comes to this year’s draft, but getting the guy who many people had as the top quarterback on their board in the late second round is decent value. I wouldn’t have made the pick, but I can definitely understand Eric’s reasoning. The Jets will need to pass the ball, which means Smith is going to put up some numbers. I would be happy with him as my third quarterback on my roster and just waiting to see what happens.
2.09 – Stedman Bailey, WR STL
(Pre-Combine 2.02, Post Combine 2.06, Pre Draft 3.02)
Ghost’s thoughts: I think he will surprise a lot of people because just like in West Virginia, everyone has their eyes on Austin. Bailey is a top notch, elite talent in his own right and I had him as my eighth wide receiver coming into the draft. I feel post-draft he is likely even higher than that. Love the value here as long as he beats out Brian Quick.
My thoughts: I think the top three receivers for the Rams when the season starts will be Tavon Austin, Chris Givens, and Stedman Bailey. Bailey is already better and more polished than his competition. The only thing that is going to limit Bailey’s production is going to be the development of Sam Bradford. If Bradford can take the next step and be a 4,200+ yards with 30+ touchdowns in a season, Bailey could be a nice WR3 in fantasy circles.
2.10 – Christine Michael, RB SEA
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 2.03, Pre Draft 1.12)
Ken M’s thoughts: Michael has a real shot at jumping one of my favoite backup RB’s in Robert Turbin as a primary backup to Marshawn Lynch. Michael is a talented back who fits the mold of a successful NFL player, but his character and injury concerns drove down his value. He could be a bust or a steal, but at this point in the draft, that’s about what you are looking at.
My thoughts: The NFL draft only created more questions for Michael. I still love the talent, but I’m not sure how he fits into the mix of the Seahawks’ backfield. I kind of feel like the answer is that he doesn’t. He isn’t going to see the field much if at all this season barring injury, Marshawn Lynch still has another three years as the starter, and Turbin is a pretty high quality backup. If you’re drafting Michael, I think you are not only hoping he figures it out but hoping that he gets traded in the next year or two to a running back needy team like the Jets. Otherwise, you’re going to be sitting on him for quite a while.
2.11 – Stepfan Taylor, RB ARI
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 3.03, Pre Draft 2.09)
Eric O’s thoughts: I’m pretty sure I’ve drafted Taylor in every one of these drafts. I was stuck deciding between the two Arizona backs in Taylor and Andre Ellington. I went with Taylor because he seems like a Bruce Arians type of hard-nosed runner. There isn’t a lot of finesse to Taylor’s game, but he makes up for it with aggression. With Rashard Mendenhall on a one year deal, Taylor has a chance to pick up value.
My thoughts: It is well documented that I’m not a fan of Taylor. I think he is the least talented of the four running backs that Arizona has now and his chances of seeing the field this year are pretty slim. He could easily be a practice squad player for the year. Assuming Mendenhall moves on (something that I don’t think we can assume at all), I don’t like Taylor’s chances to be anything more than a situational running back. In fact, if Mendenhall does move on, I think Arizona will bring someone else in.
2.12 – Aaron Dobson, WR NE
(Pre-Combine 2.10, Post Combine 3.08, Pre Draft 3.04)
Chad’s thoughts: He may be somewhat raw, but all reports out of New England say he’s a very intelligent receiver, which means more than ability itself in New England’s offense. The receiving options in New England are bleak after the two tight ends and Danny Amendola. Combine that with the fact that Amendola has serious issues staying on the field and you could strike fantasy gold with Dobson.
My thoughts: At the last pick in the second round, I don’t think you can hope for a better situation than Dobson falling to you. I think he could very easily turn into what Brandon Lloyd was supposed to be last season. He will pose enough of a threat on the sidelines to keep safeties a bit more honest and help open up the middle of the field. If safeties cheat in, Dobson has the talent to make defenses pay. The only cap on his upside is that he’s likely to be the fourth or fifth target in that offense, which isn’t going to be very fantasy worthy. Of course this all changes when one or more of the top targets get hurt, which they have all shown a tendency to do.
Stay tuned for the third round of picks tomorrow!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
