What We’ve Learned: AFC, Part Two

Jeff Haverlack Posted On November 25, 2013

In the last part of our four-part series, I will be looking at each team and giving you my thoughts and assessments in hopes of providing insight to leverage. It could be that 2012 and previous seasons were just too long ago for my old mind, but 2013 has been noteworthy on many, many fronts.

From young players establishing themselves far sooner than expected, to a deluge of season ending injuries to some of the ‘old guard’ not living up to expectations, 2013 has been anything but routine.

Let’s finish up this series with a look at the AFC East and West:

AFC East

New England

Tom Brady has been much less than Tom Terrific in 2013, but now that top target Rob Gronkowski is back in the mix, it’s obvious that the Patriots are on the path to getting their mojo back. Early in the year, it was rookie ‘sensation’ Kenbrell Thompkins that was getting all the press. He has since fallen by the wayside in exchange for fellow rookie Aaron Dobson. Dobson looks the part of a receiver that could flourish in the NFL. He runs consistent routes, has good size and, most of all, has developed an undeniable chemistry with Brady … something sure to only increase as the pair continue to work together. The big question for fantasy leaguers is which back to own between the two 24 year old runners, Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley? Vereen remains a PPR gem with an undeniable dynamic with the ball in his hands. Ridley remains the more prototypical back and has totaled seven touchdowns on the ground in 2013. Both backs are equally valuable in dynasty for their role, but watch Ridley’s continuing fumble issue. He’s put three balls on the ground in 2013 and has found the bench on more than one occasion because of it. In a Bill Belichick system, fumbling is not tolerated. In PPR leagues, sign me up for the dynamic and reception of ability of Vereen.

New York Jets

The mercurial Jets are an enigma in every sense of the word. They’re a team seemingly on the verge of being relevant in any given week, followed by being a dumpster fire in the next. Their defense continues to play legitimate NFL football but the offense rarely has fired on all cylinders. The lack of consistently productive receivers remains a significant issue and none are currently worthy of anything more than an emergency WR4. Tight end Jeff Cumberland has shown glimpses but still registers as no more than a TE3 currently. Running back Chris Ivory is young and has RB2 capability IF he can stay healthy and IF he can garner RB1 touches. With Bilal Powell still registering double digit touches, Ivory is a last-flex play back.

The real story of the Jets in 2013 has been the disappointing play of rookie quarterback, Geno Smith. Whether due to an uninspiring set of offensive weapons, poor play calling or the fact that Smith hasn’t displayed anything resembling NFL-caliber play ability, you can expect the Jets’ brass to seriously consider an upgrade, via veteran acquisition or draft pick in 2014. In all fairness to Smith, it doesn’t appear the foundation is in place on the roster to provide for a developmental environment for a young quarterback like Smith. He hasn’t helped himself any and I fear for his emotional fortitude, but I’d like to see one more year of development before determining his ultimate value. Until that time, you can steer clear of most Jets not named Chris Ivory until further notice.

Miami

Just what is it that we know in Miami? Ryan Tannehill has regressed, if only slightly, even with the addition deep threat receiver Mike Wallace. Tannehill is young, has a live arm and has plenty of upside as a lower valued QB2. For the aforementioned Wallace, he is as he was. He’s a deep threat receiver not likely to pile up receptions, but capable of providing the big game from a flex position. He’s best as a WR3 but with the potential of WR1 production from time to time. I continue to stay away from receivers like this on my starting roster but there is value there from your bench.

The backfield is a muddy situation. Hopes were high for Lamar Miller but through inefficient offensive line play coupled with a time share with Daniel Thomas, the touches for production haven’t been there. Many believed Miller to be a RB1 in the making but his value is sliding. For his part, he is averaging 4.5 ypc., but the time share simply saps much of his value. Thomas has ability but not the dynamic to carry a fantasy team. Without a Miller injury, Thomas is an emergency last-flex play only. The bright spot from tight end Dustin Keller’s season-ending injury has been that of Charles Clay. He’s inconsistent and young, but he’s versatile and has reliable hands. More importantly, he does seem to have chemistry with Tannehill and a role within the offense.

Buffalo

The perennially rebuilding Bills seemingly have procured something they haven’t had in some time, a franchise quarterback. Arguably, it’s too early to hang the face-of-a-franchise tag on the young signal caller, but he’s appeared poised and capable in this his rookie year. He’s completed nearly 59% of his passes, has thrown for eight touchdowns to four interceptions and holds a middling 82.1% rating. Manuel has fought off injury and has only appeared in seven games this year, but sometimes a quarterback is more than his mediocre numbers. He’s mobile, his arm strength is noteworthy and given his sub-par set of receivers, he’s found a way to be productive. Should the Bills finally address their receiving corps., there’s every reason to believe that Manuel can be a QB1 in fantasy.

Fred Jackson continues to produce and is still rosterable in fantasy, but at nearly 64 years of age, his time is nearly up. The greater concern is that of C.J. Spiller, who has fought injury and lack of productivity in 2013. The consensus mid first round pick in new dynasty drafts has been a dismal return-on-investment player, scoring only a single touchdown in 2013. Spiller will turn 27 before the start of the 2014 season and will enter this off-season with multiple question marks on his head. He’s certain to fall out of the first round in new drafts and no longer carries the ‘elite’ tag. This very fact may call for a buy-low strategy and as long as the price is right, he’s the type of player I like to acquire. But caveat emptor as there’s still every possibility that he simply fades from view.

AFC West

Denver

There’s not much to know about the Broncos in 2013. They are who we thought they were. Peyton Manning remains the machine he always has been. He has a trio of receivers in Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker who could all start if owned on a single fantasy roster. In fact, in our primary DLF experts’ league vs. the biggest names in fantasy, Ken Kelly and I own all three. The biggest surprise of 2013 has been the rise of tight end Julius Thomas, who has tallied ten touchdowns in his ten games played. Manning knows how to use his tight ends and Thomas is a big target with sure hands. He’s a true TE1 in fantasy that can be owned for a long time.

The backfield in Indi has been a surprise. Much hype (not from DLF) surrounded Ronnie Hillman but he now finds himself as waiver wire material after an inability to produce consistently and greater ability to fumble. Rookie Montee Ball, the first pick in many rookie drafts in 2013, is not consistent enough nor dynamic enough to be played as of yet. Once again, Knowshon Moreno has been the bell-cow and has shown that he can produce at as a top ten running back. Chalk this up to the threat of Manning and his capable receivers or Moreno’s ability to not only pass protect but to churn out tough yards and display sure hands out of the backfield, but any way you slice it, he’s been a big-time threat. Most notably, however, is that he’s remained healthy. At 26 year’s of age, Moreno is a legitimate RB1 back but with RB2 value, at best, if trying to trade him. Credit his legacy as an oft-injured runner as the reason fantasy leaguers remain skeptical of his future potential. Remove Manning at quarterback and his entire value proposition may change. Until that time, I’m a believer in Moreno and would buy if an owner was reasonably selling him.

Kansas City

Hello Andy Reid! The new head coach and a revived defense has given the Chiefs a new look for 2013, and they’ll waltz into the playoffs.

In fantasy, the Chiefs are a mixed bag. The only receiver worthwhile is, arguably, Dwayne Bowe … who has battled inconsistency, the bottle and check-down quarterback Alex Smith for much of the season. Bowe has tremendous ability and it appears as though he’s finally figured out his role. But at 29 years of age, there’s little chance he’ll ever be a WR1 in fantasy. He’s best served as a high-upside WR3 on a competing team. Donnie Avery, also 29, has ability and is a later-round addition for a bye week or emergency play. The tight end position is a mess and outside of Travis Kelce, currently on injure-reserve, there’s little relevance to be had. Even Kelce, a rookie, is unproven.

Jamal Charles continues to produce and is a top five selection in any new draft. He’s been durable since returning from a knee injury, runs with a dynamic that Chris Johnson used to and he catches multiple balls per game. You can build around Charles for multiple years to come. Behind him, Knile Davis has some value but is a toss-in player to get a trade done. He’s got great size and speed, but still carries a fumble red flag and there’s nothing suggesting he’s the ‘next’. Alex Smith continues to be perhaps the best game managing quarterback in the league. He’s a quarterback available in the teen rounds of new drafts and you could do worse for a QB2.

San Diego

The aging Chargers have something to offer any fantasy baller. Quarterback Philip Rivers has experienced somewhat of a resurgence in 2013 and is hovering near a QB5 rating. With bigger names available, he’ll be a great buy in new start-up drafts or for those looking for unsexy starting ability. Sign me up. Rivers’ favorite receiver, the slowing Antonio Gates has put together another top five year thus far but simply won’t carry the value he deserves. If you own Gates, you’re holding and you aren’t acquiring unless you need him NOW. He’ll retire off your roster in all liklihood.

There have been flashes from receivers such as Eddie Royal and the injured Malcolm Floyd, but the real story of the year has the play of rookie Keenan Allen. Allen is in the discussion for rookie of the year and is on pace for a 1,000 year season. He’ll be a key young player to anchor your receiving corps. Beyond Allen, the young player to immediately target is none other than backup tight end Ladarius Green. He’s athletic, sneaky-dynamic and exists in a system that knows how to create productivity from the position. With Antonio Gates nearing the end of the road, Green is an immediate asset to add.

At the running back position, Danny Woodhead has been a pleasant surprise in PPR leagues and Ryan Mathews has started to look the part. Mathews will top out as a RB2, at best, in 2014 but does possess RB1 ability if he can stay healthy and get his touches.

Oakland

Matt McGloin or Terrelle Pryor? Does it matter? Fantasy coaches are pulling hard for the more dynamic Pryor but McGloin appears to be the more poised and capable passer. Neither one will rate highly in fantasy and I won’t value either of them as more than a QB3, regardless of what they accomplish over the remaining balance of games.

The Raiders’ receivers are not a group to invest in. Rod Streater and Denarius Moore have shown ability but we’re tired of waiting. New tight end Mychal Rivera is intriguing but without a quarterback or system that can develop him, he’ll be a radar-watch only. There’s just not enough intrigue here to be excited about.

At running back, Darren McFadden can’t stay healthy and I’m avoiding him like the plague. He’s a buy-low only and perhaps the most frustrating player to own. Rashad Jennings is a career backup level talent but with ability that can pay dividends. He’s a worthy hand-cuff or opportunity-add player but no one you need to target specifically. The most important question remains: Is the current running back of the future on the roster currently? Both Jeremy Stewart and Latavius Murray can be rostered in the hope that one of them gets an opportunity, but there’s been nothing to suggest that one has an advantage. Stewart has a more prototypical size while Murray has a dynamic that cannot be denied. Given the choice, I favor Murray.

Follow me on Twitter: @DLF_Jeff

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Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

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