What We’ve Learned: AFC – Part 1

Jeff Haverlack Posted On October 31, 2013

Now at the half-way point in 2013′s NFL season, we’ve learned a fair amount that fantasy coaches can use to their benefit.

In the third part of our four-part series, I will be looking at each team and giving you my thoughts and assessments in hopes of providing insight to leverage. It could be that 2012 and previous seasons were just too long ago for my old mind, but 2013 has been noteworthy on many, many fronts.

From young players establishing themselves far sooner than expected, to a deluge of season ending injuries to some of the ‘old guard’ not living up to expectations, 2013 has been anything but routine.

Let’s get started with the AFC:

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are an interesting team. Andy Dalton is proving a lot of people wrong with his better-than-expected play. He’s on pace for 4,500 yards, 32 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Not bad for a quarterback said to have less than ideal arm strength. Of course, throwing to A.J. Green can do wonders for a quarterback’s stats. But if I asked you who had the most touchdowns on the season, would you say Marvin Jones? A four touchdown performance in week eight vaulted Jones to seven on the year on only 24 receptions. I’ve been high on Jones since coming out of Cal and felt he was a much more dynamic and NFL-ready prospect than was Mohamed Sanu. Jones runs crisp routes, has better than advertised speed and is a ball-hawk in the red zone. Sanu is a nice possession receiver but I won’t be surprised to see Jones starting before the year is out. A.J. Green is exactly as advertised and a great receiver to build a team around.

At running back, Giovanni Bernard is emerging as the top rookie pick in the class with his ability to run not only between the tackles, but to the outside as well. Mix in soft hands out of the back field and he’s becoming a nice weapon to own in PPR formats. BenJarvus Green-Ellis can still be owned but he’s a late round add as a handcuff only. It appears as though the days are numbered for Jermaine Gresham as a starter at tight end. First round selection Tyler Eifert is making noise and he’s the player to own. First round drafted tight ends are nearly always productive in fantasy. Buy on him now before he gets better and more established.

Baltimore Ravens

I really dislike the Ravens in fantasy. Following the departure of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, the team just doesn’t have an identity any longer. Joe Flacco is a fair QB2 but nothing more. At 16/16 projected for touchdowns and interceptions, you have to be able to do better than Flacco if you hope to put together any run. Stay away if you can. What we’ve learned about the Ravens receivers is what we’ve always known. Outside of Torrey Smith, there isn’t much to be excited about. When aged tight end Dallas Clark is your second leading receiver, that’s all you need to know. I do like Marlon Brown as a good-sized Anquan Boldin type but not enough to target him specifically in trade. He’s good in the red zone and across the middle and at 22 years of age, he’s a good throw-in player if you can get him as part of a larger deal. Smith is wildly inconsistent an and I only view him as an upside WR3. That’s probably selling him out too low, but I just don’t like his situation.

At running back, Ray Rice is looking troubled. Whether due to injury or the emergence of Bernard Pierce, something isn’t right. I’m not eager to buy low here. My gut is screaming at me to stay away from this situation. It’s not as if Pierce is lighting it up. A 2.8 ypc. average and two touchdowns on the season isn’t inspiring. The committee approach is nearly even and I’m running in the other direction. At tight end, there’s little going on to take note of unless you’re in the hunt, have lost JerMichael Finley and you have a secret crush on Dallas Clark. I’ve seen worse options. Add Dennis Pitta before the end of the year if he’s been dropped. For the most part, stay out of Baltimore for your fantasy needs, at least until things turn.

Cleveland Browns

The quarterback position is a mess yet again. While many have argued with me that it is/was too early for the Browns to throw in the towel for 2013, my belief is that they did just that. That isn’t saying that they are looking to lose games to better their draft position but they instituted a very well managed sell-high on Trent Richardson in order to start a rebuild in earnest. There’s no doubt in my mind that the organization is tired of not having a face of the franchise and will be securing one in next year’s quarterback-rich draft. They won’t be slotted highly enough to get Teddy Bridgewater or Marcus Mariota, but other names are in play and should provide enough excitement.

I’m selling on every player not named Jordan Cameron or Josh Gordon. Both are top players within their respective positions and should be targeted highly. Gordon could be scary good with a capable quarterback under center. Cameron is good now. Go figure.

While I was at first shocked that the Browns moved Richardson, it’s obvious to me that there were signs that this move was warranted. Most notably, when I heard that players inside the clubhouse made sideways comments about TRich needing to work on a few things, that told me everything I needed to hear. I was one of the few not calling TRich “elite” as he came out and I’m still seeing the same thing I saw before. He’s Eddie Lacy with a bit more lateral agility. Not elite. He can’t produce on his own and in the NFL that fact alone will limit potential.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Big Ben Roethlisberger is a quarterback in decline and the receiving game is missing the deep threat that Mike Wallace provided. The only Steeler I remain high on is Antonio Brown and then only in PPR formats. I’m not high on Emmanuel Sanders and Heath Miller is aging, but still a good option for competing teams. Markus Wheaton has upside but may have slipped to a third round rookie talent in fantasy drafts, down from his second round value after the NFL draft. The Steelers have a lot of work to do.

I’ve finally sold out on Jonathan Dwyer, I thought the kid had a chance. Le’Veon Bell doesn’t look like the savior to a running game that badly needs one. Recall, however, that the Steelers’ offensive line is in shambles and it’s probably unfair to read too much into anything regarding Big Ben or the running game. In situations like this though, I sell first and ask questions later. It’s hard enough building a competitive dynasty team without investing in NFL rebuilds. Bell may be a nice buy-low from a frustrated owner, but I’d be in no hurry.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

What have we learned about Andrew Luck? Nothing! He is who we thought he was … and nothing less. He’ll be a star in this league and he’s nearly there already. Buy on him even now.

The Colts shocked the world when they pulled off a trade for Trent Richardson. The fantasy world was up in arms and singing from the rooftops about TRich and his new situation. Thing is, nothing has changed. He’s stiffer than he has shown in the past and he still can’t seem to find holes consistently. At what point does it stop being an offensive scheme problem and start becoming a player issue? It’s too early to tell of course being that a new back in a system takes eight to twelve games to get comfortable, but the Browns didn’t make this trade out of desperation. They felt they were selling high to accomplish a greater goal. I beginning to agree with them even with my belief already being that TRich is a good, not great, runner. Donald Brown is the most dynamic threat in the backfield and if he can stay healthy, he’ll get a chance somewhere to carry the ball to a greater degree. My money is on another injury before the year is out.

Reggie Wayne is done for the year and while he should still be rostered, his value only barely registers given his advanced age. T.Y. Hilton is a receiver who I’ve had a very hard time defining and valuing. He doesn’t have the size I look for in my receivers but he plays bigger than that size. Given the absence of Wayne currently, I peg him as a lower-end WR2 but that is being generous. Darrius Heyward-Bey constantly frustrates owners but he’s got the biggest potential upside of any of the current receivers in Indi for the remainder of 2013. If he can finish strong, I’m willing to give him a bump in my rankings.

At tight end, it’s all about Coby Fleener. He’s on pace for 500 yards and six touchdowns. I believe he’ll finish above both of those numbers and is a good buy here. Dwayne Allen will return to the mix in 2014, but I won’t downgrade Fleener until I see more out of Allen.

Tennessee Titans

Jake Locker is holding his value. He’s actually coming on strong in recent weeks but I won’t be upgrading his value until I see greater consistency. I’m just not sure what to think of him and don’t own him on any team.

Chris Johnson continues to look pathetic as a runner. It’s mind-boggling. Watching him this year, even when in space, things are different. Much like Ray Rice in Baltimore, something significant has changed. I fully expect Johnson to finish he career elsewhere and I was wondering if he would be moved ahead of the trade deadline. In the end, he’s staying put. You’ll find no better second half schedule for a running back than has CJ1k, so buy if you feel lucky. He’s finally being used in the passing game. What took them so long?

The Titan receivers are defined, regardless of what is really going on, by Kendall Wright and Kenny Britt. Wright is better than advertised and has some Percy Harvin in him. I’m hoping he can stay healthy as I think he can have a nice second half. He’s a receiver I would be buying low on if you can get your price. Don’t sell the farm but sleep on him a bit in trade talks and then do the deal. He’s currently the WR32 in PPR formats and has shown some level of consistency. It’s a shocker to me that Britt is still a Titan. He should have been traded and had to be hoping that he’d be sent packing. I would have loved to see a trade to New England or Atlanta but it was not to be. The mercurial receiver is a complete mystery and for that reason, you can buy low if you can get him for next to nothing. Justin Hunter has been quiet in the last few weeks but is clearly an upside receiver. Hunter was one of my top receiving prospects in the 2013 draft and he still is. Buy him.

There’s nothing else to see in Tennessee.

Houston Texans

The Texans have been one of the biggest surprises in both the NFL and fantasy. Matt Schaub is clearly on the way out and the quarterback to own is none other than the collegiate touchdown machine Case Keenum. I have been very quiet about my thoughts on Keenum since he entered the league. He’s a heady, intelligent, player with a good enough arm. I had wanted to see him get a chance in the NFL because I believe he could be much like Russell Wilson in Seattle, but all signs pointed to him never amounting to anything in the NFL in all reality. Buried behind Matt Schaub and T.J. Yates, I had no scenario where Keenum woudl take over the reins any time soon. Instead, it’s now showtime for the young signal caller and with a recent bye week under his belt to prepare. In his last start, he looked capable. He’ll be fun to watch as I believe he’ll be starting for the remainder of the year if he continues to have any amount of success.

Arian Foster continues to lose value. Recurring injuries, potential workload issues and flagging production have defined Foster’s 2013. But he’s still a back I’d like to own. Backfield-mate Ben Tate has never been able to stay healthy and just doesn’t have Foster’s dynamic. I’m buying on Tate because I believe he’ll get a chance elsewhere in 2014. But his value is not as it was. Foster will be 28 in 2014 for what it’s worth.

Andre Johnson doesn’t have enough value to sell at this point, he’ll retire off your team if you’re holding him here. He’s a PPR gem but never scores. Not many 1,200 yard receivers around that never find the end-zone. Enter DeAndre Hopkins as the exciting rookie and heir apparent. Hopkins hasn’t quite lived up to my expectations in the offense, but it’s not as if the Texans are firing on all cylinders. Hopkins has plenty of dynamic and shows the ability to be a multi-threat receiver. If you can buy on him given the current offensive woes, do so without hesitation. I wish I could find something else to be excited about here but Lestar Jean and Keyshawn Martin have had their chances and failed to produce. Move along.

At tight end, there’s not a player that I’m buying or selling on. Garrett Graham has been a colossal disappointment and he’s off my radar. Owen Daniels is about to turn 31 and can’t be counted on. No thanks.

Jacksonville Jaguars

With Teddy Bridgewater likely headed to Jacksonville in 2014, there just may be some excitement brewing for the Jag faithful. Bridgewater, if that is indeed the case, will inherit an offense not without talent at the receiver position. Justin Blackmon, for all his troubles, is a fine receiver and capable of being a WR1 for many years to come. Starting across from Blackmon is Cecil Shorts, an equally dynamic, but from a different mold, receiver. Both Blackmon and Shorts have WR1 ability but until Shorts can display a level of consistent health, he’s better as high upside WR2 in fantasy. I’m buying on Blackmon and would consider Shorts at the right price as well. Slot receiver Ace Sanders has ability and upside but likely won’t produce until the Jaguars can find a running game to open up the shorter crossing patterns, specifically the lower numbered routes in the tree. With his speed dynamic, Sanders could be exceptional in space.

At running back Maurice Jones-Drew is falling precipitously and I don’t envision him regaining any value. I’m leaving him for dead and that pretty much goes for all Jacksonville backs. Jordan Todman has shown some between-the-tackles ability but there’s little way that the Jags view him as the next back to shoulder the load. Look for Jacksonville to make a play in free agency for an accomplished back in addition to an earlier round selection at the position during the 2014 draft.

Tight end is a huge need in J-ville and there’s no reason to target any current player Marcedes Lewis looks to be done, all things being equal. Looking at the Jaguars in 2014, I think they may actually be fantasy relevant.

Tune in tomorrow for the last part in the series as we look at the AFC North.

Follow me on Twitter: @DLF_Jeff

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Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

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