IDP Watch: Week Four

IDP leagues can be won with some preemptive in-season pickups or trading for players who are on the rise, but whom the masses have not picked up on. Each week, we detail a handful of IDP players or trends essential for dynasty players to be aware of.

Often, things like quarterback hurries, quarterback knockdowns, or snap counts don’t appear in the box scores. These are huge indicators of potential value changes that may be forthcoming as they show a particular player is getting after the quarterback and a string of sacks may be on the horizon or a linebacker may be coming off of the field more than originally expected.

The goal is to largely avoid stellar IDP players since many of those guys are already heavily in the eyes of IDP owners. Instead, here are some players to keep an eye on based on week four performances:

Bruce Carter, WLB DAL

Carter began the season playing every down. Over the last two weeks, though, he’s only played 77 and 66 percent of the team’s snaps. He’s being pulled of the field in certain passing situations. In fact, Carter was torched last week for two touchdown passes. Because of that, it appears that he’s being benched in favor of Ernie Sims this week against the Broncos. Carter’s coverage struggles are costing him snaps, which is concerning for a young linebacker that many expected to finish in the top ten. If he’s not playing every down, a LB1 finish is going to pretty difficult – this is concerning news for Carter owners.

Manti Te’o, ILB SD

Many went waiver wire diving for Bront Bird after his week one explosion, but this past week was the first week Te’o saw the field in the regular season. He started and only played 14 snaps. That was enough to impress, though. He put together two quarterback hurries and three tackles over that span. While he was knocked all off-season and throughout draft time for the inability to shed blocks, he played well in his first NFL action. Look for Te’o to get more reps as the season progresses especially given his inaugural showing. If he plays anywhere near what he did in his first game on a higher volume of snaps, he’ll hold a lot of value and experience a rise much like often questioned Titans’ linebacker Zach Brown.

Josh Robinson, CB MIN

Second year corner Josh Robinson has played a significant volume of snaps thus far in 2013. Through four games he’s at 99 percent of the team’s snaps. These opportunities combined with his struggles in pass coverage have resulted in solid tackle numbers. Last week, Ben Roethlisberger really went after Robinson targeting him 15 times, which led to 12 tackles. In the prior weeks, Robinson averaged roughly six tackles in each game.

Quarterbacks are finding success against Robinson, which means he’ll continue to see balls thrown his way – that will result in a higher number of tackle opportunities compared to most corners. He looks to be a reliable cornerback option for 2013 given his tackling ability. If this continues, he should finish in the top ten among cornerbacks.

Da’Norris Searcy, FS/SS BUF

Earlier this offseason, Aaron Williams made a switch to safety and was slated as the starter at strong safety in the Bills’ new defensive scheme – that pushed Searcy to the bench. However, while Jarius Byrd is out, Searcy is starting at free safety. Things are continuing to get better for Searcy, too, as he saw time at strong safety with Leodis McKelvin injured and the Bills’ needing help at corner. That said, while the last few weeks have been positive, Searcy’s snaps and production thus far shouldn’t be relied on in forecasting future production. They’re circumstantial. While he’s made the most of his opportunities posting solid tackle numbers and playing well, he may not maintain this snaps volume the entire season. In the short-term, he continues to be a worthwhile option, especially if McKelvin continues to be out and he fills in for Williams, but don’t expect this to continue through the end of the year.

Darius Slay, CB, DET

In the first two weeks of 2013, Slay started, but was benched multiple times due to poor play. He then didn’t play a snap in week three. In week four, however, he played 88 percent of the team’s snaps and was targeted frequently on his way to six tackles and an assist. However, this was due to injuries to both Rashean Mathis and Chris Houston. If Slay continues to maintain this snap count due to these injuries or improves his play to keep Mathis in a reserve role, Slay will be a valuable cornerback option in corner required leagues going forward. It’ll be the rookie corner rule at its finest as opposing quarterbacks will target him to exploit his inexperience. Given the Lions offense and his inexperience, if Slay is able to maintain a healthy snap volume, he’ll be a very strong cornerback option. In the meantime, with Houston potentially out this week, Slay is likely to start and is a great option against the Packers.

Whitney Mercilus, OLB HOU

Mercilus is playing close to every down thus far in 2013 at 97 percent of the team’s snaps. He’s been phenomenal rushing the passer and solid against the run, as well. Through four games, he has 14 tackles, five assists and three and a half sacks. He also has ten quarterback hurries and two quarterback hits. His primary focus in this defense is putting pressure on the quarterback, so he’s situated to be a consistent long-term contributor in big-play leagues. In tackle heavy leagues, he’s a viable match-up play with upside depending on who the Texans are up against. He’s worth rostering in moderate to deeper depth leagues depending on the scoring system.

Willie Young / Ezekiel Ansah, DE, DET

Young looks to be the starter given his snaps in week four playing 75 percent overall. He didn’t post stats last week and struggled defending the run, but he got to the quarterback with four hurries. Despite the lack of numbers this week, his snap numbers confirm that he’s in for the majority of snaps with Jason Jones out for the remainder of the year. So, don’t be concerned if you rostered him with the Jones injury.

Questions also surfaced on DLF last week on Ansah and how he’s performing. He’s started the last two weeks and is playing well in all facets of the game despite his low tackle numbers. He’s having more success in the pass rushing department, but he looks to be the real deal and will continue to improve given his raw athletic ability. To put that in some context, over the last two week he’s played between 60 and 70 percent of the teams snaps. If you can capitalize on the lower tackle numbers (despite the sack flash) and acquire the young end, do it.

Mark Herzlich, SLB, NYG

Herzlich was believed to have a legitimate shot at the Giants’ starting middle linebacker spot earlier in the season, but wasn’t terribly productive. Most of his snaps early in 2013 were spent in the middle, but he played roughly 30 percent of the team’s snaps through two games. In week three and four, he started on the strongside and played 67 and 86 percent of the team’s snaps, respectively. With the increase in snap count, he also has 11 tackles and five assists in the last two games. It’s clear that he’s preferred and is more productive on the strongside. Unfortunately, the strongisde linebacker in a 4-3 defense generally possesses a low IDP ceiling, so his upside is limited especially given that he hasn’t been terribly effective in coverage to play every down. That said, in moderate to deeper leagues he is worth monitoring and potentially rostering given his continued expansion of usage.

Adrian Clayborn, DE, TB

After missing the 2012 season due to a torn ACL, Clayborn is back on a similar pace and trajectory to what he put together in his rookie season. He’s getting to the quarterback and making tackles in the run game. In most leagues, he’s a top five to ten defensive end right now. If Clayborn is on your (or his owner’s) forgotten list due the dead 2011, now’s the time to try and acquire the young defensive end before he firmly returns to everyone’s radar. Not only is he putting up numbers, but he’s been playing close to every down at 92 percent of the team’s snaps.

Deep Dynasty Looks

Devin Taylor, DE, DET

As mentioned last week, with Jason Jones on the shelf, the rookie will get an opportunity earlier than expected. In week four he played 12 snaps and posted one hit and one quarterback hurry. Not a spectacular game by any stretch, but he should be monitored, if not stashed, in deeper leagues.

Clinton McDonald, DT, SEA

McDonald saw an increase in snaps over the last two weeks playing 55 percent and 64 percent of the team’s snaps, respectively. In that time, he’s posted seven tackles, three assists and two and a half sacks. In deeper leagues that require tackles, he should be owned.

Jack Crawford, DE, OAK

With two tackles and two assists in week four, Crawford proved he could be productive in limited snaps. In addition, he posted two quarterback hits and one hurry. All of this production was on just 33 percent of the team’s snaps (or 22 snaps). He improved his power and bulk this offseason, so it’s worth monitoring despite the Raiders’ depth at end.

Follow Steve on Twitter at @SteveWyremski.