Rob Gronkowski: Risk vs. Reward

Brian Bulmer

gronkowskiThe tight end position has transformed over the last ten years. The NFL has become a pass heavy league and tight ends are more involved in the passing game than ever.  Typically it takes 2-3 years for a tight end to make an impact. For Rob Gronkowski it only took one season. Gronk has been labeled an elite tight end since the 2010 season. He has never finished lower than the TE5 in scoring and that was in his rookie season. The last two seasons he has finished in the top two for tight ends and broken records in touchdowns (17) and yards (1,327) for a tight end.

The second round pick out of Arizona fell in the draft due to injury concerns that are currently haunting him heading into the 2013 season. Gronkowski missed his entire 2009 season at Arizona following back surgery (different than the recent back surgery).

Couple Gronkowski’s recent back surgery with his offseason forearm surgeries (yes, plural) and we have all the makings of a player who has had limited time to build muscle mass and condition his body for another NFL season. The off-season for NFL players is typically used to prepare the body for punishment during the season. The wear and tear becomes more noticeable when someone has not had time to properly train and prepare the body for the physicality of football. This season will be an interesting test as to how Gronkowski has taken care of his body with the reduction in time to prepare it for competition.

Gronkowski is currently listed as the consensus #19 player in the DLF top 300. That is a bit of a gamble considering he has had durability concerns since college. Is Gronkowski’s value accurate based on what he has to offer for your dynasty team? Can he continue to put up elite numbers or is his body too fragile to last another five NFL seasons? I give you my take when I weigh the risk versus the rewards.

Risk

Draft Risk: Taking a player with durability issues high in a fantasy draft is always a risky strategy. Some owners want to take the “safe” players in the first few rounds and gamble later in the draft. Taking Gronkowski in the second or third round of a dynasty start up is a risky strategy. Some other players in the top 300 around Gronkwoski include Larry Fitzgerald, David Wilson, Percy Harvin, Alfred Morris and Andrew Luck. Some of these guys come with their own risks and question marks, but are they worth it over Gronk?

Durability: Two back surgeries over four years and many forearm surgeries leave Gronk with many question marks.  As a dynasty league fantasy football owner you want a player who you can roster for several years and have success. He struggled with a forearm injury last season that resulted in multiple surgeries. He had back surgery in June and avoided the PUP list, but isn’t ready to play quite yet. Having a player with durability concerns leaves holes to be filled on your rosters. If you are considering drafting Gronk, you have to balance him with a consistent tight end with limited durability concerns to play when Gronk misses time.

Long term value: Again, if you are spending a second round pick on a player, it has to be someone you can have as a serviceable commodity for years to come. The infection issues and back surgeries are immediate red flags that could result in an early exit for NFL players. Gronkowski is an elite talent at his position, but if he continues to be hampered by injury, how long does he have before the Patriots cut him loose or his body officially gives up on him? Tom Brady’s (age 36) tenure as a quarterback in the NFL is winding down as well. His existence in the offense has a direct effect on Gronkowski’s numbers.

Reward

Buy Low? – DLF’s own Dan Meylor wrote an excellent buy low article on Rob Gronkowski when news broke about his impending back surgery. This article outlined many reasons to buy based on his health/injury status. Trying to get Gronkowski cheap is the right play this off-season. He’s still going to miss time after avoiding the PUP list, so the window is closing to buy.

Touchdown machine – Dan pointed out in his article that Gronkowski has scored the most points of any tight end in a three year stretch in standard leagues. This is mostly due to the number of touchdowns he caught over that period of time. Gronkowski caught 38 touchdown passes in a three year stretch that ranks third behind Randy Moss (43) and Jerry Rice (40). Over the last three seasons, Gronkowski has not caught fewer than ten touchdowns in any season. Last season he caught eleven touchdowns in eleven games. We can go back as far as Gronkowski’s freshman season at Arizona and see that he caught six touchdowns in ten games – that is the only season since high school that Gronk has not scored double digit touchdowns. Let that sink in for a minute or two.

Quarterback Familiarity – The Patriots offseason ended with the loss of Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd and Deion Branch. The only two pass catchers last season that Tom Brady is familiar with are Julian Edelman and Gronkowski. The Patriots have a lot of positive buzz out of camp about Kenbrell Tompkins, Aaron Dobson and Danny Amendola. The chemistry between Tom Brady and his prized tight end is undeniable. I can see Gronkowski reaching double digit touchdowns again and he may catch more passes this season than all the seasons in the past if he only misses a few games.

Tight End Scarcity – The loss of Aaron Hernandez started the initial trend of top five scarcity. In looking at the top five fantasy football tight ends last season, Gronkowski finished second and missed five games last season. Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez are aging tight ends and their time is limited in the NFL. To lock up a potential top three tight end for the next 5-10 years if healthy is a huge advantage in fantasy football. Few guys will ever play the position with the durability and consistency of Tony Gonzalez. He is a special player that transformed the way NFL offenses used tight ends. In an era of pass heavy offenses, a top tier tight end gives fantasy footballers a huge advantage.

Should I draft or trade for Rob Gronkowski?

His value is so high in dynasty that if you can get him in the third or fourth round, he is an absolute steal. He is an immediate impact player in a high octane offense that can put up big points in a hurry. Weapons aside, Brady can find open receivers and if Gronkowski is healthy he will be the immediate beneficiary.

If you are currently in a league, I would encourage you to trade for Gronkowski unless you own Jimmy Graham (unless you can flex one of those two). Gronkowski is an elite tight end who puts up solid numbers and is only 24 years of age. His medical condition is not career threatening at this point and his value may be the lowest it will ever get in his career. Even if he misses the start of the season, he will be available in the stretch run and the fantasy playoffs, just when you need him the most.

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