Rob Gronkowski: Dynasty Buy?

The recent reports on Rob Gronkowski’s health haven’t been very positive.  Not only had he endured a fourth surgery on his left forearm as well as an infection that developed from the multiple operations, but he now has a procedure on his back scheduled for tomorrow. I’m sure many dynasty owners have read the reports on Gronk over the past few months and grimaced.  Every time I see updates on the talented tight end however, I smile.  Not because I wish him harm, but because due to his recent injuries he is finally becoming attainable in dynasty leagues.

Over the past two seasons, Gronkowski has become one of the most untouchable commodities in fantasy football.  His dynasty owners have been reluctant to even talk about trading the Patriots star tight end until the recent slew of injuries.  I believe the window to acquire Gronkowski is open.  In fact, right now is the best chance to trade for him since his rookie year and in my opinion, fantasy owners need to take notice and take advantage before that window closes.

Gronkowski was relatively unknown (except to dynasty owners) before the Patriots made him the second tight end chosen in the 2010 NFL draft.  He burst onto the scene by catching 42 passes for 546 yards and ten touchdowns during his rookie year and finished the season ranked fifth among fantasy tight ends in standard scoring leagues.

After catching five touchdowns in the first three weeks of the 2011 season, fantasy owners could no longer afford to trade for the Patriots star pass catcher.  Gronkowski had one of the best fantasy seasons ever by a tight end. He caught 90 passes for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns and added 17 more receptions for 258 yards and three scores in three playoff games.  He was the best fantasy tight end in 2011 and by this point last off-season, had become untradeable to most dynasty owners who had him.

Last year brought more of the same for Gronkowski’s owners when he was on the field.  In just 11 games, he caught 55 balls for 790 yards and 11 more touchdowns.  He ended the 2012 season as the second highest scoring tight end in standard leagues, less than ten points behind Jimmy Graham who played in 15 games.  In fact, every top 15 tight end in 2012 played at least 15 games and Gronk still outscored nearly every one of them.

To completely understand the historical significance of Gronkowski’s career thus far, I compared his three year stretch to the best stretches of some of the finest tight ends since fantasy football started a couple of decades ago.  Fantasy points per game were calculated using standard scoring. (6 points/TD, 1 point/10 receiving yards)

Not only has Gronkowski had the best three year run of any tight end over the past 20 years, he did it during the first three years of his career and is the first tight end in NFL history to catch at least ten touchdowns in three consecutive seasons.  It is also worth noting that each one of the three year stretches for every other player on this list occurred when the player was in their mid-to-late twenties – Gronk turned 24 in April.

Due to the 38 touchdowns he’s hauled in since being drafted, Gronkowski has proven to be the premier tight end in fantasy football.  Only Randy Moss (43) and Jerry Rice (40) have ever caught more touchdowns in NFL history over their first three seasons.  He’s not just an elite tight end – he’s an elite pass catcher.

So if he is so elite, why would any fantasy owner consider trading him now?  Good question.  It’s simply because Gronkowski’s injuries are starting to become extensive and beginning to make some of his owners (some of which have begun to label him as injury prone) think he will never produce at an elite level again.

Gronkowski first broke his arm on November 18th against the Colts while blocking for an extra point attempt – that injury kept him out of the Patriots lineup until New England’s final regular season game on December 30th against Miami.  He came out of that contest unscathed; however, two weeks later in the Patriots opening playoff game against the Texans, he broke the same forearm (although it has been reported that the break occurred in a different place than the first).

Overall, Gronkowski has had four surgeries on his left arm and along the way, fought off what some have described as a relatively bad infection.  The latest reports on Gronkowski’s arm say if he recovers as expected, it shouldn’t keep him from starting for the Patriots in week one in Buffalo.  While these reports are positive, they certainly don’t sound as if he is out of the woods just yet.

To compound his recent arm problems, Gronkowski has a documented history of back issues going back to his college days in Arizona.  While the upcoming back surgery has been reported as minor and unrelated to the one he had while in college, any time a player goes under the knife it can be worrisome.  The procedure has many concerned Gronk will miss at least a portion of training camp and perhaps more.

I’m not a medical professional, so I can’t tell you Gronkowski is never going to be affected by the infection he has dealt with this off-season or miss games due to a broken bone, injured back or any other injury.  I’ll leave that type of advice to “The Dynasty Doctor,” Scott Peak.  Scott recently penned a very detailed article on Gronkowski’s medical prospects going forward.  If you haven’t read it, it’s surely worth your time.

What I can say with relative confidence is that if Gronk is able to sidestep these medical issues and remain relatively healthy over the next few years, he should continue to put up numbers that few ever have and give his fantasy owners a distinct advantage week-in and week-out.

Over the past few months, Gronkowski’s ADP has dropped consistently according to dynasty startup information gathered by DLF’s Ryan McDowell.  In January, Gronk’s ADP was 12 in startups and he was chosen as highly as fifth overall.  By May however, he had an ADP of 21 and was selected as low as 27 in one mock.  I would expect his ADP numbers to drop even more as we progress into the summer due to the latest information coming out of Foxboro.  Dynasty players are obviously becoming concerned about Gronkowski’s health.  If his owner in your league is one of those that are worried, now is the time to start negotiations in my opinion.

To be clear, I’m not telling you to buy low on Gronkowski (although if you can, by all means go ahead.) I’m simply telling you to buy.  Looking at May’s ADP information, players like Dez Bryant, Percy Harvin, Matt Forte, Alfred Morris, Larry Fitzgerald and Chris Johnson are all being drafted near Gronk.  In the right situation, I would trade any one of them (plus a replacement tight end) for him.

While I agree he has had his share of medical issues and is somewhat of a knucklehead off the field causing there to be a certain amount of risk associated with acquiring Gronkowski, his upside on the field is through the roof.

Like I stated earlier, dynasty owners haven’t had a chance like this to trade for Gronk since his rookie season.  The owner that has him on their roster in your league has most likely seen the reports on his arm and back.  I believe every savvy dynasty owner owes it to themselves to at least find out if he’s available. I’ll admit it’s a bit of a gamble to pay full price for Gronkowski or even trade for him at all.  In my opinion, the risk is well worth the potential reward.

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Dan Meylor

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Dan is a jack of all trades but master of none and specializes in salary cap and contract leagues.He has far too many hobbies (including writing the article you just read), is a die-hard Packers fan and can't wait to introduce his young sons to fantasy football.

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