Time is Not on Their Side
If you’re a fan of older music, you’ve undoubtedly heard the song made popular by The Rolling Stones entitled, “Time is on My Side.” Sometimes in fantasy football, I think time is definitely on my side when I look at my roster and see it filled with high producing players in the primes of their career. When I see the likes of LeSean McCoy, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Jimmy Graham, it makes me smile. I know that even if things don’t quite break my way this year I have several years of high quality production from these players and multiple chances to win it all.
On the other side of the coin are rosters that might still be competitive this year, but their window is very quickly closing. These are rosters that are counting on getting production from the likes of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Tony Gonzalez and Steven Jackson. While these players should be decent producers for this year and maybe next, they are very clearly at the end of the line. You’re most likely either going to ride them into the sunset and hope they help you make the playoffs or you’re going to trade them for a prospect because at this point in time they have lost pretty much all trade value in a dynasty league outside of those teams that are “all in” this year.
As we all know, the trick in dynasty is to figure out which players will be the studs, ride them through their prime, then to sell them just as they are coming towards the edge to cash in at the top of their value. The team that can do this the best never really needs to rebuild. Instead, they are just reloading year after year with players who are in their prime and producing at a high level. These are the teams that are always where we want to be – in the championship hunt.
In order to help you out a bit, I’ve identified several players I feel are getting dangerously close to that edge. They should still be productive this year and maybe next year as well, but I feel that they are about to reach the point where their value is going to take a big hit. If you want to ensure you get full value for your investment, you probably need to move them this year or shortly after this season is done. Otherwise it might turn into a situation like some of the players mentioned above where their trade value is so depressed you are forced to ride them into the sunset, not that there is anything wrong with that if you’re a competing team, but if you’re not there you don’t want your roster filled with guys like Jackson, Gonzalez and Wayne.
If you’re not seriously competing for a championship in 2013 or 2014, these are a few players you might want to try to move this season before their value takes a big hit soon:
Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA
Lynch is a beast as he humbly lets us know by his nickname. I fully expect him to be a rock solid RB1 for at least the 2013 season. Why is he on this list then? For starters, he’ll turn 28 in the off-season. There is also a little bit of legal trouble that has been getting delayed for a while now. While I don’t expect it to be a huge issue, the fact this isn’t Lynch’s first issue could mean the Commissioner might decide to put a big suspension on him to the tune of four or more games. Robert Turbin and Christine Michael will also be another year experienced and might be ready to chip into his role by the time 2014 rolls around. There will be a lot of questions about him next off-season that will push his trade value down and I don’t expect it to come back up to what it will be during this season.
Brandon Marshall, WR CHI
As a Bears fan, this one is a little tough for me to admit. Marshall is a stud and one of the most talented receivers in the NFL. My concern is he’ll be turning 30 next off-season. That isn’t old for a wide receiver, unless of course they have chronic hip issues. For a big receiver who butters his bread with a nice combination of physicality and speed, the hip problems are going to shorten his career as a top flight receiver. He might be able to stick around the league for another five years, but I think that his days as a top tier receiver are numbered. Mix in the fact the Bears realize they can’t have one receiver account for nearly half their passing game and it might mean 2013 will be the last of the great years for Marshall.
Chris Johnson, RB TEN
Johnson has always been a boom or bust player. He might get ten carries for 30 yards one week and 15 for 150 the following week. He’s looked like the Chris Johnson of old during the preseason, but he is very quickly getting up there in age as well. It doesn’t seem like it, but his 2,000 yard season was four years ago already. He’ll turn 28 just after the season starts which is an issue for a player who has built his game on speed. He should have a bit of a bounce back year in 2013, but it might be the last of his career where we can consider him in the discussion of being a RB1 in fantasy leagues. Speed just doesn’t age well.
Vincent Jackson, WR TB
The move to Tampa was a nice one for Jackson as he set career highs in receptions (72) and yards (1,384) in 2012 while falling just short of his career high in touchdowns. His 2013 numbers could be very near the same level. The problem for Jackson is the same one as Chris Johnson. Vincent Jackson’s game is built around speed. He’s made to run down the field and make the big play. Again, speed just doesn’t age well and Jackson will be turning 31 just after this season ends. He’s going to lose a step soon and I would rather he do it on someone else’s roster.
Darren McFadden, RB OAK
I feel the need to preface this one by saying I just don’t like McFadden. I think he has talent, but he is so brittle that he’s more of a headache than he is worth. The reason he is on this list even though he just turned 26, is I think NFL teams will start to agree with me. McFadden is in the last year of his rookie contract and will soon be out looking for a big payday. I don’t think he’s going to get it. He is going to end up taking a pay cut next year and probably enter into a true committee on his new team in an effort to keep him healthy. I think his stock is going to take a huge hit as will his production.
Andre Johnson, WR HOU
Andre Johnson is one of the best players of our generation when he is on the field. The problem with Johnson is he has missed at least three games in a season four times over his career due to knee or hamstring injuries – that’s 40 percent of his seasons. At 32 years old, I’m not sure his body will be able to come back when the next serious knee or hamstring injury occurs. It could very easily linger for the whole season and result in a massive drop in his stock. If you can get top dollar for him right now, I would gladly take it.
Reggie Bush, RB DET
Bush has a new team and should be a true PPR monster this year if the pre-season games are any indication. He’s my pick to lead the NFL in receptions and receiving yardage by a running back this season. The problem is it also wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t have a single game with over 100 yards rushing and his receiving yardage might even surpass his rushing yardage. Yardage is yardage, but you don’t want to be starting a wide receiver in your running back slot. His trade value is too high right now and I would definitely be moving him sooner rather than later if I owned him and didn’t have a shot at winning this year. He’ll be 29 at the start of next year and the new team shine will probably have worn off by then.
Those are my seven high profile players who I would definitely be selling if I wasn’t competing for a championship this year. While they could be productive for several more years, I expect them all to take a big hit in value by this time next year.
Who are the players you would want to move for peak value before the end of the season if they were on your roster?
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