Over/Under: Ryan Mathews
Welcome to another installment of “Over/Under” where I highlight a player, determine some projections based on past tendencies, then state whether I think they will go “over or under” those projections. The criteria will be different for each player based on position and situation.
This week’s debate will focus on Ryan Mathews. We will put our betting line at 1,000 yards rushing, 30 receptions for 250 yards and eight total touchdowns.
All I ask is you keep an open mind while reading this. There are few players in fantasy football who can recreate the taste of vomit in the back of your throat, Mathews is now one of them. At this time last season, Ryan Mathews was the hot ticket in town. He was the unquestioned starter in San Diego, was expected to take over full time feature back duties after rushing for his first 1,000 yard season as a pro while sharing carries with Mike Tolbert. He saw his ADP rise as high as the RB3, behind Arian Foster and Ray Rice, in both dynasty and redraft PPR leagues. Things were looking great for the heir to the LaDainian Tomlinson throne.
Then this freight train of potential and excitement derailed and would never get back on track. The first sign of Mathews’ bad luck was on July 31, 2012, when he was involved in a car accident, banged up his elbow and missed a day of practice. Nine days later it would get much worse. On his first carry of the preseason, he took a handoff up the middle for five yards and broke his collarbone. He would miss the rest of the preseason and the first two games of the regular season while recovering. He made his 2012 debut in week three versus the Atlanta Falcons, rushing ten times for 44 yards and adding five catches for 32 yards. He also fumbled inside the five yard line, an issue which was anything but an isolated incident. It was his 11th fumble in 27 career games up to that point.
In a bizarre twist, the organization decided to pull Mathews from short yardage work and the starting lineup, instead going with Jackie Battle. It is no secret then-G.M. A.J. Smith was one of the most arrogant General Managers in all of the NFL. He played head games with players and coaches while constantly trying to prove he was smarter than everyone else. Even though he wasn’t the starter, he would continue to produce in limited opportunities. In week four against the Chiefs, he rushed for 61 yards on 14 carries and added two receptions for 21 yards coming off the bench. Against the Saints in week five we finally got to see what we had been expecting from Mathews all along – he rushed 12 times for 80 yards and a touchdown and added six catches for 59 yards – that’s 25.9 points in PPR leagues and it was the second best performance of any running back in week five of last season. It looked like the Chargers would have no option but to turn back to Mathews and feature him moving forward.
As you can see from the above chart, week five would prove to be the high point of Mathews’ season. Fantasy owners struggled to play Mathews because they never knew what Norv Turner had planned for him that week. With Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle stealing carries without warning or cause, Mathews had yet to see 15 carries in a single game up to this point. Fantasy owners had a hard time benching him because he was showing signs of the breakout so many had predicted and justified his one time elite ADP status. In the weeks before and after the team’s week seven bye, Mathews would see season highs in carries in each game but fail to break 4.0 yards per carry or score a touchdown. He was also still losing a lot of third down work to Ronnie Brown, which didn’t make much sense. His ability as both a pass protector and a pass catcher were his biggest strengths coming out of college. Taking their most dynamic ball carrier off the field on third downs and breaking up his rhythm was very confusing. Out of 223 touches, only five came on third down. From week ten to week 15, he would see his fantasy points decline each week. His season would end in week 15 the same way it started, with a broken collarbone. A season once filled with optimism and excitement would end with frustration and disappointment.
Now we enter a new season with a new General Manager and new coaching staff. The Chargers replaced A.J. Smith and Norv Turner with Tom Telesco and the former offensive coordinator of the Denver Broncos, Mike McCoy, respectively. A new regime puts everyone on notice. Nobody is “their guy” and all “scholarships” are revoked. Quite simply, if you don’t perform they will find “their guy” to replace you. With new leadership come fresh starts, too. Somewhere in between Mathews’ lofty 2012 preseason projections and his disappointing finish lies his true value moving forward. He’s shown enough (or hasn’t shown enough) to prove he isn’t going to be a game changing, dominant RB1 in fantasy leagues, but he’s flashed too much talent on the field to completely write off.
In an effective two back system, Mathews has proven he can be a difference maker. Without Norv Turner and A.J. Smith playing head games through the media and constantly tinkering with the team to save their own jobs, he should be able to focus on football and work to shed the draft bust label he’s been branded with. In 2011, he earned a Pro Bowl berth after finishing with 1,546 total yards and six touchdowns while sharing carries with Mike Tolbert. In a league moving away from one back systems, there is nothing wrong with settling in as the lead back in a running back by committee attack
What we need to determine is whether 2012 was a snake bitten streak of bad luck or what we can expect from him moving forward. After giving up 49 sacks in 2012, the Chargers finally made an attempt to upgrade the offensive line this off-season by using their first round pick on offensive tackle D.J. Fluker and signing left tackle Max Starks and left guard Chad Rinehart in free agency. This unit isn’t going to be a top five offensive line, but it should be light years better than what they’ve trotted out the last couple of years. Implementing a quick strike, West Coast type of offense will definitely help Philip Rivers stay upright and hide a lot of inefficiencies on this offensive line.
A believer in the two back system, Coach McCoy brought in former New England Patriots running back Danny Woodhead to complement Mathews. Even though he should see most of the third down work in a Darren Sproles-like role, he won’t be anything more than that. I expect Mathews to see 70% of this team’s touches and go over the stated betting line of 1,000 yards rushing with six touchdowns and 30 receptions for 250 yards and two touchdowns. Those stats would produce 203 fantasy points in PPR leagues – good enough to finish as the RB16 in 2012. Moving forward a mid-range RB2 should be considered his value. According to Ryan McDowell’s July ADP data, Mathews is being drafted as the RB26 with an ADP of 65.67 in dynasty start ups due to the overwhelming bad taste he left in everyone’s mouths last season. His average ranking among the DLF rankers brings him in as the RB22 in dynasty start ups.
Mathews isn’t the first running back to experience a roller coaster start to his career. We’ve seen players like Cedric Benson, Marshawn Lynch, Maurice Jones-Drew and Thomas Jones either start slow or start hot and face plant before getting it back on track. Can Mathews be one of the players to get it back on track? I think he can and he’s a player who still has appealing dynasty value. At his current asking price, you can get him for pennies on the dollar. If he face plants again, you won’t be out much, but if he gets his act together like Lynch, Benson and Jones, you get phenomenal value for a young RB2 for years to come.
How do you think Ryan Mathews will perform in 2013? Will he be able to get back on track with 1,000 yards rushing, 30 receptions, 250 yards, and eight total touchdowns?
As always, let me know in the comments section below.
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