Welkome
The Broncos signed Wes Welker to a two-year, $12 million contract today after the Patriots reportedly only offered him $10 million over two years and didn’t want to match his offer from Denver. Welker is a serious upgrade over Brandon Stokley for the Broncos and Peyton Manning has to be salivating at the prospect of having Welker, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker lining up in his three wide receiver sets.
We examine the ripple effect from the surprise signing as we analyze player-by-player:
Wes Welker, WR DEN
Over the past six years in New England, Welker amassed an incredible 672 catches on 925 targets, becoming an absolute PPR monster in dynasty leagues. In Denver, he won’t be able to match his 174 targets from last season with Thomas and Decker on the outside. However, Peyton Manning is the one player who can make everyone on the roster happy. A reasonable expectation for Welker is likely somewhere around 85 catches, 1,000 yards and a handful of touchdowns, which is still very good, but no longer elite in the world of dynasty leagues. Brandon Stokley had 58 targets playing from the slot last year, but you can imagine Welker will get a lot more attention next season since his after the catch ability is light years better than Stokley’s.
Welker is the only player in NFL history with five different 100 catch seasons and he’ll make the Denver offense that much more difficult to defend. He’s been able to catch a whopping 73% of his targets and he’ll provide an incredible security blanket for Manning and the Broncos. Welker’s current ADP is #60 overall as the WR24. With his age (31) and this change in scenery, it’s safe to expect that to drop over the next few months, but things could be worse.
Peyton Manning, QB DEN
It’s almost unfair.
Manning will now have a five-time Pro Bowler in Welker to pair with emerging stud Demaryius Thomas and the highly talented Eric Decker. Any one of those players can give a defense fits and having them combined in three receiver sets is going to be a nightmare to defend. Expect another elite season from Manning – this just solidifies his value as a short term mercenary in dynasty leagues. He should be an elite QB1 for the rest of his career.
Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN
This news really doesn’t change much in terms of Thomas’ value. Welker is 31 years old and the only real question as far as Thomas goes is what happens when Manning exits in a year or two. Thomas had a breakthrough season last year as he posted 94 catches for 1,434 yards and ten touchdowns. He’ll remain the primary receiving weapon in Denver and Welker’s existence over the middlle may actually take some coverage away from Thomas – that’s a pretty scary proposition.
Eric Decker, WR DEN
If there’s a loser in the short-term (other than Jacob Tamme), it’s likely Decker. It’s pretty tough to envision him repeating his 123 targets from last year now that the Broncos have Welker in the fold. However, it’s very important to remember this is Decker’s final year under his current contract. The Broncos may be hard pressed to keep all three receivers in the fold long-term and Decker has shown the ability to be a very good receiver. It’s not out of the question to see another team offer him big money to be their primary receiving weapon in 2014 if the Broncos can’t lock him up before free agency starts at this time next eyar. Now could be the worst time to deal him away even if his numbers look to dip slightly.
Brandon Stokley, WR DEN
Yeah, that’s probably not going to work out any longer.
Tom Brady, QB NE
You can bet Brady is steaming on the inside after the Patriots re-worked his deal to free up money only to let Welker walk away. However, don’t be too concerned if you own him in a dynasty league. If there’s one thing we know, it’s that Brady can get his numbers with just about anybody on the roster. While it’s going to be tougher for him, newly signed Danny Amendola should help fill the void for Welker.
Aaron Hernandez, TE NE
If there’s a beneficiary other than Amendola, it’s Hernandez. If he can stay healthy, you can bet he’s going to get a lot of those targets Welker used to have underneath. It’s going to be fun to see just what kind of numbers Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski can put up together if they can stay on the field all year long.
For the complete free agency rundown, visit our Offensive Free Agency Blog in our Premium Content that details each and every relevant move. We also have an IDP Free Agency Blog this year that covers all the IDP moves as they come in.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
