Fast Forward: The 2013 Free Agents
Most dynasty league owners are combing through the list of 2012 free agents and determining who they want to target in trades or unload this offseason.  They’re determining if it’s best to keep Peyton Manning, analyzing where Marques Colston may end up and trying to get Matt Flynn or Mario Manningham on the cheap.
Pfft. Â Rookies.
Professional dynasty league owners made those decisions long ago, way before the free agent frenzy that’s about to hit was even remotely on the radar for most owners in their leagues. They targeted players like Flynn off the wire or as a sneaky throw in with a bigger trade last season, before others connected the dots.
With most owners spending their time analyzing the 2012 class, let’s take a look at 2013 to determine some viable targets and take some educated guesses on who may be changing addresses about this time next year.
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco, QB BAL
It’s tough to imagine a scenario where the Ravens let Flacco go. You would expect him to sign some type of extension here in the offseason. While he’s no fantasy superstar, he’s still a viable QB2.
Matt Schaub, QB HOU
Schaub should have one more season to prove he can take the next step. Much like Flacco, it’s difficult to imagine a non-Peyton Manning signing scenario where the Texans let him go.
Matt Leinart, QB HOU
Unlike Schaub, you could certainly see the Texans let this Matt find a new home. This year is critical for Leinart – if he doesn’t get any time at all in Houston, his career is likely getting shorter and shorter.
Stephen McGee, QB DAL
The quarterback class of 2013 is really pretty awful and McGee may be the only player who may be worth monitoring this year. If he has a solid preseason, keep an eye on him. He may just be a player who gets an opportunity here in the next couple of seasons.
Running Backs
LeSean McCoy, RB PHI
The Eagles may be forced to use the franchise tag on DeSean Jackson this year, but there’s no way they do that again and choose him (or anyone else) over McCoy. Expect Shady to get his money from the Eagles at some point here in the next year or so.
Curtis Brinkley, RB SD
Brinkley is an interesting player on this list. He’s an RFA, so it’s a bit more complicated to predict his future, but he could get some time this season if the Bolts let go of Mike Tolbert. He’s a good buy low target for the time being and makes for a good roster stash.
Mike Goodson, RB CAR
Everyone talks about Jonathan Stewart getting his value crushed with DeAngelo Williams re-signing in Carolina last season, but it was Goodson who really got the shaft. He’s available in a ton of leagues right now and has shown a good amount of ability in limited time. For owners not paying attention, you could get him for next to nothing right now. He likely won’t be back in Carolina and could be a good weapon for another team.
Shonn Greene, RB NYJ
I’m not convinced he even makes it through next season as the starter. He’ll be an RFA at the end of next year and it’s hard to see the Jets (or anyone else) giving him starter’s money if he doesn’t improve. If you can find an owner who is sold on him long-term, stop reading this and make the deal.
Fred Jackson, RB BUF
This will be a big season for Jackson. If CJ Spiller impresses and Johnny White can show anything, Jackson could become expendable. He’s looking for an extension right now, but it’s tough to say what will happen with him coming off a big injury. He’s a “hold” because his value is really in flux right now.
Rashad Jennings, RB JAX
Jennings was put on IR last season, but quietly rehabbed himself back to nearly full strength before the end of the year. Maurice Jones-Drew was dominant last year, but Jennings is a player to target at the moment. Many owners have simply forgotten about him and he could emerge in Jacksonville or elsewhere.
Felix Jones, RB DAL
It’s a big year for DeMarco Murray. If he can stay healthy, Jones becomes expendable. While Jones’ value isn’t likely to increase much if he goes elsewhere, Murray’s certainly would. Just keep that in mind when you’re valuing these two players.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB PIT
Keep an eye on what the Steelers do in free agency and with the draft this year. Any running back they take (even if it’s late in the draft) would be worth a serious look. There’s no telling what Mendenhall will be able to do next year coming off his ACL injury and neither Isaac Redman or Jonathan Dwyer are likely the long term answer there.
Javon Ringer, RB TEN
Ringer took a big step back last year as he failed to capitalize on a big opportunity with CJ2K struggling. This year will be big for him. If Johnson struggles again, Ringer could find himself with another great chance to produce. He’s a great “buy low” at the moment, even with Jamie Harper in the mix.
Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – Stewart could very well be the best buy of this offseason in dynasty leagues. Many owners are still reeling from the Williams signing in Carolina as it zapped Stewart’s value to some degree. However, it’s very difficult to see the Panthers paying both of these running backs big money past this season. Whether Williams gets released after the year, or Stewart signs elsewhere, it looks like 2013 is finally setting up as “The Daily Show’s” big opportunity. He’s shown top 10 ability and you could get him for top 30-40 re-draft value in some leagues right now.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown, WR PIT
It’s tough to imagine the Steelers letting him go, especially if they work out a long term deal with Mike Wallace. Brown could be a candidate for the franchise tag next year.
Josh Cribbs, WR CLE
I find myself wondering what Cribbs could do on a good team. We may be a year away from finding that out.
Victor Cruz, WR NYG
Anything remotely close to last year’s production will net Cruz a long term deal in the Big Apple.
Malcom Floyd, WR SD
Floyd is, well, Floyd. You get some good games and get some clunkers. It’s hard to see a team looking at him as more than a WR2, and that’s hard to get excited about.
Greg Jennings, WR GB
Hmm. If there’s one team that’s stacked at position players, it’s the Packers. That being said, it’s really tough to see them letting Jennings walk. If he did, his stock would have nowhere to go but down. Randall Cobb would be a major beneficiary of this happening. With Driver aging and Jennings unsigned beyond next year, Cobb is a major buy candidate anyway.
Calvin Johnson, WR DET
The Lions will give him whatever he wants and probably a lifetime supply of Ford Fusions, to boot. Nothing happening here, move along.
Mohamed Massaquoi, WR CLE
Massaquoi has dealt with his fair share of injuries, but you have to wonder what he (like Cribbs) could produce on a decent team. He’s available for next to nothing in most leagues and patience could eventually pay off here.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR PIT
Sanders is a guy to keep your eye on this season. He’ll be an RFA at the end of the year, but it’s hard to see the Steelers paying big money to Wallace, Brown AND Sanders. He’s flying under the radar and is a player to keep tabs on for sure.
Steve Smith, WR CAR
Much like Jennings in Green Bay, it’s hard to see Smith leaving the Panthers. Cam Newton has revitalized his value and he’ll probably play out the string in Carolina. Regardless, Smith’s value wouldn’t change dramatically one way or the other if he was to bolt.
Tight Ends
James Casey, TE HOU
Casey is a player to keep tabs on as well. He’s likely on the wire in many leagues, but he does have some ability. Owen Daniels has never been the healthiest player and Casey is laying in the weeds. If the Texans let him walk, he could emerge if he finds himself in the right offense as a FB/TE hybrid player.
Jared Cook, TE TEN
Cook is a serious breakout candidate this year. If he plays well, look for the Titans to lock him up long term. The window to buy low on Cook is evaporating quickly.
Dustin Keller, TE NYJ
It’s tough to see Keller’s value skyrocketing outside of New York, but just keep his status in mind as the season progresses. If he finally emerges, remember there are no guarantees on his address beyond this year.
So, there you have it – that’s a very early look at what free agency could look like a year from now. While many of these players (Schaub, Flacco, McCoy) have next to no chance of hitting the open market, there are other players who you can get now before their price gets inflated.
Successful dynasty league owners need to plan ahead and look to the future. While many owners in your league are taking a myopic approach to free agency and only looking ahead to 2012, championship level owners have a read on what’s going to happen much later on.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
