Dynasty Spotlight: Buffalo RBs
For all intents and purposes, Buffalo has only a trio of running backs that need be considered when it comes to draft or trade time. One could make a sound argument that regardless of who is carrying the ball in Buffalo, he’s no more than an afterthought in fantasy. Much like Detroit has been in recent history, the Bills just don’t rate when it comes to fantasy production in the backfield.
Fred Jackson, largely the workhorse over the past two seasons, has produced in many areas and is no slouch in career yards per carry average (4.4), even if that career has consisted of a mere 28 starts to date. But at 30 years of age, he is simply a stop-gap redraft target or emergency dynasty back. Capable in the passing game as well, Jackson did have his moments. In the end, having had to constantly fight for carries behind a sub-par offensive line, Jackson never emerged in fantasy and is likely to see fewer carries moving forward. Jackson does have one more year on his contract after 2011, but little tangible value remains beyond that date. Disappointing, because Fred Jackson has shown the ability to be productive if his offense could stay on the field longer to give him more opportunities.
Heading into 2011, C.J. Spiller has been a hot topic on message boards by coaches looking to potentially “buy low”. As found in our Dynasty Essentials Guide, Spiller only ranks 51st within his position in our redraft rankings, fairing only slightly better at 42nd in our dynasty rankings. If playing in Buffalo hasn’t been bad enough, the coaching staff showed little trust or confidence in Spiller, giving him an average of only seven combined rushing and receiving touches per game. There is no doubt that Spiller remains the most dynamic force in the Bill’s backfield, but running behind that same sub-par offensive line and sharing carries again with the aging Fred Jackson, a fantasy break-through performance in 2011 just doesn’t appear to be in the cards.
Even with Coach Gailey’s desire to increase Spiller’s touches, I remain skeptical that C.J. will have any significant increase in value in the near future. Perhaps therein lies the opportunity. In fantasy, especially in the dynasty format, those that are willing to take the risks will eventually reap the long term rewards. As an indirect trade target, that is, as an additional player to even out a trade offer, I believe Spiller is worth the gamble. Spiller should be playing in the low 200 lb. range in 2011, a weight that shouldn’t materially decrease his speed or open-field dynamic. At this weight, in combination with an increased number of touches, Spiller does have a chance for increased production as well as a greater role going forward. Success is not guaranteed by any stretch, but a significantly lower value paired with increased opportunity makes for an intriguing addition. It is these types of additions that can put a redraft team over the top in a given year or provide a dynasty team with quality long term depth.
Before getting overly excited about any Buffalo back, realize that in 2011 the Bills are the proud owners of the leagues second toughest schedule in the NFL.  Only Carolina is more unfortunate in this regard.
In the fifth round of the 2011 NFL draft, the Bills selected jack-of-all-trades back Johnny White as, potentially, the eventual replacement to Fred Jackson. White, out of North Carolina, has an intriguing blend of size, speed, vision & patience and runs with great heart. It doesn’t take long in watching any of White’s tapes to understand what the Bills saw in him. He is largely unproven as a runner and it is no certain that he can eventually replace Jackson. White has never carried more than 130 times while at North Carolina and unless Jackson falls to injury, he will see mostly special teams and limited spot duty in 2011. In dynasty leagues however, I have labeled White as “the best running back that you haven’t heard of” due to his collection of abilities.
I particularly like backs that show patience followed by the vision to capitalize on that patience.  Patience is a difficult skill to learn and vision can’t be taught. Put the two together, combine them with sufficient speed and the willingness to run between the tackles and you have a back that will eventually get an opportunity to start at some point in the future. Johnny White meets all my criteria for a later round prospect with a chance to out-produce his drafted position. In our Dynasty Essentials Guide, White is our eighth ranked rookie running back and the 22nd rookie overall. Many believe this ranking is overly high for an unproven runner, but he’s unproven only in a carry-the-load sense, not in the area of tangible ability. Considering Fred Jackson’s age, White could easily be pressed into duty in 2011 or be in line for significant carries in 2012.
In summary, it’s tough to get excited about any player in Buffalo. Often brutal playing conditions late in the season take their toll at a time when fantasy coaches can’t afford non-performance. Toss in what appears to be another poor year of offensive line play and the league’s second toughest schedule and, Bills fan or not, it’s just too tough to forecast anything more than another year of fantasy mediocrity with all players not named Steve Johnson.
I find it easy to root for the under-performing Bills. There’s something about the allure of a young team without star power that plays with heart and determination. But until the future displays anything other than what we’ve come to expect recently, they’re still the Bills. And as the Bills, their committee of backs has a long row to hoe if they wish to rise t any level of fantasy prominence.
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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