Dynasty Stock Market: Week One Report
Week one is in the books and not without a few surprises, early disappointments and a lot of out of synch offenses.
Offenses struggle to get in rhythm early in the year and fantasy scoring is typically well below that which can be expected after the first four games. And as usual, player values tend to swing wildly as more obscure names emerge from the shadows, well-known names underperform and injuries occur.
Let’s get you caught up on a few of this week’s risers and fallers:
RISING
Michael Vick – Kolb’s loss (of memory) is Vick’s gain. If Vick runs and passes all over Detroit, he may be starting for the rest of the year. With that on the line, look for Vick to do what he does best. Here’s a hint, it’s not passing.
Vince Young – Is it just me or is VY starting to look like a legit NFL QB. Now let’s see him do it against a team that doesn’t come from Oakland. Pittsburgh fits the bill nicely.
Sam Bradford – Color me impressed. It’s still early, but the kid looked poised and capable. St. Louis is still terrible and he’ll likely be on the ground an awful lot over the next few weeks. I’ll reserve my final judgment for much later and expectations have to be kept very low in year one.  Bradford handles himself very well and he’s easy to root for, though.
Brandon Jackson – You never like to see a player go down, but Grant’s loss is Jackson’s gain. I have loved Brandon Jackson’s running style and character since he came out of Nebraska. I’ve waited a long time for him to mature as a pass blocker and as a runner, so it’s now or never. He couldn’t have picked a better week to take over the starting job. Buffalo could be a huge confidence boost for the young back playing in a contract year.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Maroney is out, so that means Green-Ellis moves up to the likely role as RB2 behind Fred Taylor. The Patriots also have both Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris on board as specialty backs so BGE has more value in 2011 than he does this year.
Hakeem Nicks – The second year player continues to rise after a 3 TD performance in week one. While many coaches had no reservations about Nicks, the follow through early in his second season is welcomed production to all owners. His name is a hot one in dynasty trade discussions.
Mike Williams (you choose) – If your receiver is named Mike Williams, his value is increasing. Too soon to label either as steals, but a good week one for both has put them on the radar.
Jabar Gaffney – Every radio start/sit discussion I’ve been hearing over the past 48 hours seems to center around the building love affair with Gaffney. I guess that’s what 3 catches for 34 yards and a TD will do for you when expectations are so low. Gaffney is a hot commodity right now and the price is still right to acquire him.
Clay Matthews – In that offense, many opponents will be playing from behind, which plays into the strength of Matthews. Credited now with three sacks in week one, he should have plenty more chances in week two against Buffalo.
Derrick Johnson – The Chiefs linebacker seems to start well every year before fizzling before mid-season. Is 2010 finally the year where he “gets it?”  He sure looked like he got it against the Chargers. Color me skeptical, but intrigued.
FALLING
Kevin Kolb – Talk about going from the penthouse to the outhouse! Kolb arrived on the scene with a lot of promise and expectations from many a fantasy owner. I thought he was well over drafted to begin with, but I tend to place more value on longer term performance, especially at the QB position. The QB controversy is well underway in Philly and if Vick plays well in Detroit, there’s a chance that Kolb won’t be starting again. Kolb owners have to be frustrated and disappointed. It’s still very early yet, so don’t do anything rash.
Alex Smith – Gore, Vernon Davis and Crabtree, what more could a QB want!?!  It’s the end of week one and the finger pointing has already begun in San Francisco. Coach Singletary has said that Smith’s job is safe, but if you believe that it’s for anything more than about half the next game vs. New Orleans, think again. This is a tough matchup for the 49ers, and even moreso for Smith who isn’t exactly a gunslinger in what’s sure to be a shootout.
Matt Moore – Less than a full game and the Panther faithful are already calling for the rookie. Carolina just doesn’t have the offensive weapons to be a pass-first team. If that wasn’t evident before running into the Giants, it should be now. Moore will be pressing even more going into week two. Few QBs perform well under those circumstances.
Mark Sanchez – No fantasy coach drafted Sanchez as a QB1, but that doesn’t mean that many aren’t looking for major strides from the second year QB. Sanchez has looked anything but comfortable in the pocket and his receiving corps has looked anything but dynamic. That’s just not a good combination.
Ryan Grant – Bad time for a season ending injury. Not only for the Packers coming out of the game one, but moreso for the aging (28) veteran. Grant’s recovery should be complete by the end of the year but his value heading into 2012 will be far less than what it is currently. Brandon Jackson is in a contract year and the rookie James Starks looks much like a younger Grant.
Marion Barber – DLF has been on him as a declining value player for some time. The writing was on the wall early in camp and Barber seems to be an after thought now in Big D. Things could change but Barber’s best days that remain aren’t likely in Dallas.
Michael Crabtree – Don’t panic yet, it’s only week one. But I’ve heard more questions surrounding the long term prospects of Crabtree this week than I have at any point over the last year. Work ethic and character questions abound for the young receiver and he looks genuinely disinterested. It’s far too early to raise the flag of “bust”, but it’s not too soon to get it out of the attic.
Braylon Edwards – Edwards has exactly one week left to restore some modicum of value. We’ll chalk the pitiful performance up to an aggressive Baltimore defense, but that may not explain away the last year of mediocrity. He doesn’t look like a good fit in the green and white, but then again, few receivers do with Sanchez under center.
Anthony Gonzalez – Game over in Indi. He’s not dynamic enough to win back a WR3 job from 2nd year receiver Austin Collie and he has begun whining about lack of opportunities. He’s only a few short weeks from coming to a waiver wire near you.
Buffalo – Let’s not limit it to a single player, let’s just say all current players – and maybe the next year or two of players as well.
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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