2024 IDP Dynasty Division Outlook: AFC South

Last year, we brought you a new series covering each NFL division’s IDP dynasty fantasy football outlook. We are back at it again this year. We’ll bring you an overview of each team, highlight the best and worst positional groups, and make some cool predictions for the division as a whole. Let’s jump into it!

Houston Texans

Depth chart courtesy of Ourlads

The Texans’ defense has undergone drastic changes in recent years. They boast a formidable edge rush unit comprising Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter. Anderson had a great rookie season, justifying the pre-2023 NFL draft hype, and is widely expected to become one of the best edge rushers in the NFL as he embarks on his second season.

Will Anderson, Jr. with the play of the night. pic.twitter.com/OobAvFcliU

— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) August 20, 2023

 

Hunter produced an impressive 18 sacks in 2023 – matching his career best in that category. Despite his performance, the Minnesota Vikings allowed the veteran to depart in free agency, and he joined the Texans on a two-year, $49 million deal.

The defensive interior will look entirely different in 2024. Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins have been replaced with Foley Fatukasi, Tim Settle, and Mario Edwards. It’s possible Autry could also see more time at DT in much the same way as he did earlier in his career.

Christian Harris improved markedly at linebacker in his second season and led the unit in snaps. He should partner with the new arrival, Azeez Al-Shaair, following Blake Cashman‘s and Denzel Perryman‘s departures.

Jalen Pitre had a disappointing sophomore campaign but will likely remain a starter at safety. Jimmie Ward was arguably better than Pitre in 2023 but faces a battle with third-round pick Calen Bullock for the other safety spot.

Derek Stingley Jr was excellent in 2023, and Desmond King II more than held his own. Both should reprise their starting roles at cornerback. 2023 starter Steven Nelson will probably be replaced by second-round pick Kamari Lassiter, considering how former first-round picks Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson have struggled in their NFL careers. Myles Bryant improved in the second half of the 2023 season for the New England Patriots and could offer capable depth.

Indianapolis Colts

Depth chart courtesy of Ourlads

The Colts selected Laiatu Latu with the 24th overall pick. Latu joins a crowded edge rusher room but has the potential to quickly become the Colts’ best pass rusher at the position.

Despite spending their first-round pick on the defensive side of the ball, there will be a familiar feel about the Colts’ defense. Almost every significant contributor remains with the team, and Gus Bradley returns for his third season despite their struggles in 2023.

DeForest Buckner will continue to be a pass-rush menace on the interior alongside dominant run stuffer Grover Stewart and possibly Raekwon Davis.

DeForest Buckner was an absolute game wrecker on Sunday against the Patriots pic.twitter.com/SVLralEHRV

— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) November 13, 2023

 

Linebackers Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed should be highly productive without the distraction of Shaquille Leonard, who left the team midway through the 2023 season.

At safety, Julian Blackmon will start after missing the end of the 2023 season with a shoulder injury. Nick Cross leads the race to partner with Blackmon after being favored over veteran Rodney Thomas II toward the end of last year.

Kenny Moore II, one of the most productive cornerbacks in IDP, will lead an underwhelming cast comprising JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones. Jones, a 2023 seventh-round pick, had an underwhelming campaign and is in danger of losing his starting role unless he improves significantly.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Depth chart courtesy of Ourlads

Arik Armstead is a massive addition to the Jaguars’ defense in every sense. The 6’7” veteran has been inconsistent throughout his career but rebounded in a big way in 2023 with 58 pressures and eight sacks. He’ll provide the interior pass rush that the Jaguars lacked last season. Second-round pick Maason Smith is an exciting prospect but remains a project and may be eased into the mix.

Josh Allen had a career year, achieving career highs with 90 pressures and 19 sacks. Walker also made strides in his second season, posting 11 sacks. It’s exciting to wonder how much better this unit can be with Armstead in the fold.

Josh Allen has set a new Jacksonville Jaguars single-season sack record with 15.5 QB takedowns. pic.twitter.com/dKRWNzILvD

— KSR (@KSRonX) December 31, 2023

 

Foye Oluokun has been one of the most productive linebackers in IDP for three seasons, and that looks set to continue under new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. Devin Lloyd was still inconsistent but showed significant improvement in his second season. He will deservedly benefit from Nielsen’s tendency to utilize two full-time linebackers.

Andre Cisco has developed into a capable, if unspectacular, safety and will remain involved. 2023 starter Rayshawn Jenkins left to join the Seattle Seahawks, meaning Darnell Savage, Andrew Wingard, and perhaps Antonio Johnson will compete for a role.

At cornerback, Darious Williams’ coverage abilities will be missed. Tyson Campbell and Ronald Darby, whom the team acquired in free agency, will probably be the starters. The depth chart pictured above lists Darnell Savage as the nickel corner, but third-round rookie Jarrian Jones may get the nod. Jones played almost exclusively in the nickel role for Florida State Seminoles in 2023.

Tennessee Titans

Depth chart courtesy of Ourlads

In 2023, the Titans’ defense fared well against the run but were poor at defending the pass. Dennard Wilson, a former defensive backs coach who helped the Ravens’ defense lead the NFL in the fewest net passing yards allowed in 2023, was appointed as the Titans’ new defensive coordinator in the hope that he can help the team overcome their struggles.

The trade for L’Jarius Sneed should be pivotal. He’ll partner with third-year player Roger McCreary to form a good cornerback duo. Chidobe Awuzie has been slightly inconsistent throughout his career but has generally demonstrated he belongs on the field.

Amani Hooker had a career season in 2023 and should partner Elijah Molden at safety. It will be interesting to learn whether Wilson implements the three safety scheme he often favored with the Ravens.

Kenneth Murray was brought in to help replace Azeez Al-Shaair, who left in free agency, and the former Chargers linebacker was paid a starter’s salary. I believe Jack Gibbens is the better player, and I’m also a fan of rookie Cedric Gray’s long-term outlook. However, Gray isn’t likely to feature heavily in his rookie year unless either of the veterans ahead of him misses time.

Jeffery Simmons should return to his dominant self after missing five games in 2023. T’Vondre Sweat, the Titans’ talented second-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, should see his snap share increase as the season unfolds. Sebastian Joseph-Day is overrated but will probably play more than he deserves.

I’ve been openly critical of Harold Landry for years, as his seemingly impressive production always relied upon significant snap volume. Still, he’ll be given every opportunity to feature heavily owing to the lack of competition at the edge rusher spot. Arden Key and Rashad Weaver round out a weak position group for the Titans.

Positional Group Rankings

Interior Defensive Line

1. Indianapolis Colts B+
2. Tennessee Titans B
3. Jacksonville Jaguars C+
4. Houston Texans E

Buckner and Simmons helped the Colts and Titans to first and second place in my rankings, but I’ve placed the Colts number one as I believe Stewart will be more productive in 2024 than Sweat, even if he splits time with Davis. I expect the Titans will be in first place in next year’s rankings once Sweat is up to speed.

Assuming Armstead plays inside, the Jaguars’ defensive interior should be much improved in 2023. If second-round rookie Maason Smith develops in the way the Jaguars envision, they, too, should be higher in these rankings in future editions of this article.

The Texans’ hopes at DT rely on the assumption that Autry will kick inside and will continue defying father time. He’ll be 34 when the 2024 begins. They have nobody else at DT who will be fantasy-relevant. The defensive interior is arguably the weakest position group on the Texans’ defense.

Edge

1. Houston Texans A+
2. Jacksonville Jaguars A-
3. Indianapolis Colts B-
4. Tennessee Titans D+

This is the second of the IDP divisional previews I have created, and this is the first time I’ve awarded a position group an A+. It is thoroughly deserved. Anderson Jr. and Hunter are two excellent edge rushers, and even if Autry plays more snaps on the interior, he’ll still spell the edge rushers, too. Derek Barnett has been generally disappointing throughout his career, but he’s a capable third or fourth-choice option.

Allen had as impressive a season as any edge rusher, and Walker has begun to find his feet. Their lack of depth concerned me enough to consider awarding them a B+, but I’ve stuck to my guns with an A-.

The Colts lack a star edge rusher, but they have incredible depth because they continue to invest early draft picks in the position. Most of those players have underwhelmed, but Ebukam is a reasonably good pass rusher. Dayo Odeyingbo had an impressive, unsustainably efficient 2023, and Latu offers incredible upside.

Laiatu Latu was drafted with pick 15 of round 1 in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.37 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 114 out of 1798 DE from 1987 to 2024. https://t.co/QeWNipSIXt pic.twitter.com/4fXh3ybYJE

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 26, 2024

 

Many will disagree with my assessment of the Titans’ position group, but Landry and Key are a step below the rest of the edge rushers in the division.

Linebacker

1. Jacksonville Jaguars A
2. Indianapolis Colts B
3. Houston Texans B-
4. Tennessee Titans C+

Oluokun isn’t a complete linebacker like Roquan Smith, but you cannot argue with his production. He’s been a top-three linebacker in IDP for three consecutive years. As mentioned earlier, Lloyd has improved, but I’m a harsh judge, and I’ve docked points simply because I want to see more consistency from the third-year player.

Franklin is the perfect example of why, for fantasy purposes, it doesn’t matter if linebackers don’t play well, provided they play a lot. I’m more excited to see whether Speed can overcome the missed tackles that plagued his 2023 season. Both players have a realistic shot at finishing the year as LB1s.

I was Harris’ harshest critic last offseason, but his sophomore campaign was impressive. If he can miss fewer tackles in 2023, then he could become an excellent IDP asset. I’m not as enamored with Al-Shaair, but he’s been productive wherever and whenever he has started, and it would not surprise me if he led the Texans’ linebackers in snaps.

I quite like Gibbens as a player, and I believe Gray has what it takes to become a productive IDP linebacker, but I don’t think he’ll get the opportunity to shine in 2024. I’m not and have never been sold on Murray.

Cornerback

1. Tennessee Titans B+
2. Houston Texans B
3. Jacksonville Jaguars C-
4. Indianapolis Colts D+

Sneed’s signing significantly upgrades the Titans’ cornerback group. McCreary has developed into an above-average starter, and Awuzie – while coming off a down year – has been a solid contributor more often than not throughout his career. Depth is a concern as there is a steep drop-off beyond those three.

If Lassiter starts fast, the Texans’ cornerback group could impress in 2024. Stingley had a very promising sophomore campaign once he returned from injury. After returning to the team, King generally played well as the nickel corner in Matt Burke’s defense. However, teams need more than three corners in the increasingly pass-centric NFL, and only Bryant can be relied upon behind the three players ahead of him.

The Jaguars’ cornerbacks are challenging to assess because Campbell was poor in 2023 but excellent in 2022. Darby is a solid, if unspectacular, player, and there are question marks at the nickel spot, which rookie Jones may fill. Their depth at the position is abysmal.

Moore II was not only a productive IDP asset again in 2023 but also performed at an extremely high level. It’s slim pickings alongside and behind him on the Colts’ depth chart at cornerback.

Safety

1. Indianapolis Colts C
2. Tennessee Titans C
3. Houston Texans C
4. Jacksonville Jaguars C

It’s C’s across the board for a very average division of safeties. Blackmon is my favorite to lead the group in fantasy production. Pitre could be second, despite being an inferior player to at least four other safeties in this group, and Hooker has a reasonable chance to be in the mix as one of the few solid fantasy contributors in the division at safety.

Beyond those three players, I don’t expect many fantasy-relevant safeties to emerge from the AFC South. Bullock is a wildcard with fantasy upside, but I suspect he may not have early-season value.

Divisional Predictions

MVP: Josh Allen, EDGE JAC

I was spoiled for choice when considering who to predict as the MVP of the AFC South. Allen, Oluokun, Anderson Jr, Hunter, Simmons, and Franklin were in contention, and a case could be made for each player. I narrowed that group to players who had their best season in 2023 and eventually settled on Allen.

Allen has always been a good edge rusher, but last year he was exceptional. The 26-year-old finished fourth among all edge rushers with a 17.5% pressure rate – easily the best number of his career. He also generated 19 sacks, finishing behind only Trey Hendrickson and T.J. Watt in that category.

LVP: Kwity Paye, EDGE IND

I was surprised when the Colts exercised Paye’s fifth-year option. I don’t think he’s a poor player – he’s a solid run stuffer, and his sack totals have been solid at times, but his sack rate is unsustainably high, considering his poor pressure rate and win rate. Furthermore, he is surrounded by superior players and plays in a heavy rotation, which has been added to following the addition of Latu. I cannot see Paye having a productive 2024 season.

Most Improved: Will Anderson Jr, EDGE HOU

Anderson Jr. had the kind of rookie season many of us expected. Earning eight sacks as a rookie was impressive, and his production will increase as he continues to refine his technique. Jonathan Greenard was a capable partner for the rookie in his first season, but Hunter will be a great one in 2024.

Biggest Steal: Christian Harris, LB HOU

Harris looked like a different player in his second season. He still has his faults – he was inconsistent in coverage and missed too many tackles. Still, as he embarks upon his third season in the NFL, I’m optimistic about his outlook. He was already a near full-time player over the second half of the 2023 season, and his path to snaps remains wide open despite the arrival of Al-Shaair because Perryman and Cashman are no longer on the roster. Henry To’oTo’o has yet to prove he is worthy of a significant role.

Biggest Bust: Jalen Pitre, S HOU

Pitre became an instant IDP star after racking up 141 tackles and five interceptions in his rookie season. Unfortunately, as so often happens with defensive backs in fantasy football, he failed to meet the lofty expectations the following season, finishing with only 83 tackles and very few big plays despite playing over 1000 snaps.

It would not surprise me if his production improved in 2024, but I believe he’s still being rated too highly. He’s currently the DB12 in the DLF Dynasty IDP Rankings, and I suspect his ranking may fall even further.

Wait for it: Laiatu Latu, EDGE IND

Latu’s college production was incredible. Even after he recovered from serious injury, he performed at a level that suggests he can become an excellent edge rusher in the NFL. His landing spot was not ideal, as the Colts employ a four- and sometimes five-man rotation, but I expect his talent to shine through as the season unfolds.