2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Troy Franklin
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
Situation
Name: Troy Franklin
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Denver Broncos
College Team: Oregon
Draft Status: Round four, pick two (102nd overall)
Troy Franklin is a polarizing figure in the upcoming 2024 NFL season. His prolific college career, which saw him as a three-year starter and the team’s leading receiver in his final two seasons, has led to some debate among analysts.
At the core of the divide lies the question of Franklin’s true potential and his ability to make an immediate impact in the NFL. Some analysts see the potential for him to turn into a dominant WR1, capable of taking over games and leading an offense. They cite his high-end athleticism, sure hands, and knack for making contested catches as evidence that he will hit in the NFL
Some analysts also argue that the hype surrounding him is overblown and that his draft capital does not warrant such excitement. They contend that Franklin’s college success was largely due to the system he played in and that he may struggle to replicate his production against NFL-caliber defenses. They also point to his lack of elite speed and his tendency to sometimes disappear in games as potential red flags.
Courtesy of Sports Reference
As a true freshman, Franklin started nine games and finished the season with 18 receptions for 209 yards and two touchdowns. He followed that up with a breakout sophomore campaign, starting all 13 games and leading the team with 14 receptions for 891 yards and nine touchdowns. In his junior season, Franklin once again led the team in receiving with 81 receptions for 1,383 yards and 14 touchdowns. He also earned All-Pac-12 honorable mention honors. That junior season, Franklin saw a 28.5% market share, 3.74 PPR points per touch, and 3.2 yards per team pass attempt.
Talent
Troy Franklin Combine Results
- Height: 6’ 2”
- Weight: 176 lbs
- Arm: 31 7/8”
- Hand: 8 3/4”
- 40 Yard Dash: 4.41 seconds
- 10 Yard Split: 1.61 seconds
- Vertical Jump: 39”
- Broad Jump: 10’ 4”
Franklin put up some pretty good numbers at the NFL Combine. His height and speed matched up with some of the best in the class. Unfortunately, he came in a little undersized, at 176 pounds. Reports later clarified that Franklin was dealing with a stomach bug that led to some weight loss, and he weighed in at a solid 188 pounds, at his pro day.
After his sophomore season, many analysts, myself included, were wondering if Franklin had what it took to be a WR1 for an NFL team. His junior season left most of us appeased, with many considering Franklin a lock for the late first round/early second round of the NFL Draft. Some less-than-ideal route running during the gauntlet drill at the Combine likely led to the drop in draft capital and the polarizing opinions for Franklin.
Opportunity
Image from 4for4.
4for4 is making Franklin work for his spot, but I don’t see any reason why Franklin can’t be at the very least the WR3 on the team by the start of the season. The added benefit of being the only player on the team already having a rapport with Bo Nix is a boon not normally bestowed upon rookie WRs.
The downside is a rookie QB will be throwing Franklin the ball, in an offense that has struggled to find itself over the past two seasons. While many are hoping that Nix can be a nice fit in Sean Payton’s system, we haven’t seen anyone do that since Drew Brees. Even if Franklin can succeed at the NFL level, work his way up the depth chart, and win against NFL corners, we don’t know that this will be an offense scoring ample points when it’s all said and done.
Risk
The obvious risk for Franklin is his fourth-round draft capital. People were perplexed during the draft, as the slide continued to happen. With not much invested in him, the team won’t feel obligated to get Franklin on the field. He will have to work hard and fight to get/stay on the field, regardless of the connection with his first-round QB. Many will point to Franklin having one of the best prospect profiles of any fourth-round pick in recent history, and I tend to agree, but it doesn’t mean anything is guaranteed for him.
Market
Courtesy of DLF’s May SF Rookie ADP
Franklin is currently being drafted as the WR15 in rookie drafts, and that still blows my mind(most of my drafts ended a few weeks ago). Franklin ended as the WR7 in my personal rankings, and I have drafted/will draft quite a bit of him in the late-second/early-third rounds of rookie drafts. I understand that we generally want to avoid players that the NFL has skipped over, but I see this as one of the times when we want to look beyond the capital spent, and see the prospect for who he really is.
Courtesy of ADP History
As you can see, Franklin’s value fell substantially, post-Combine. Beyond catastrophic injury or a player showing much worse athleticism than expected, a 100+ ADP drop for a player likely means that player is currently underrated.
Ultimately, only time will tell how successful Troy Franklin will be at the next level. The NFL Draft is a notoriously unpredictable event, and sometimes players slide without reason. Troy Franklin is not without questions or concerns, but his unique combination of talent, production, and intangibles make him an intriguing prospect with the potential to be a game-changing player in the NFL.
- 2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Ricky Pearsall - June 13, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Troy Franklin - June 12, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Trey Benson - May 27, 2024
