Dynasty Decision: Travis Etienne
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Travis Etienne, RB JAC
It feels like Etienne has only just appeared on the fantasy radar, and we already have to make decisions about his longevity. However, after missing his entire rookie year due to injury, he is now in the penultimate year of his rookie contract, and we’re approaching decision time on whether he is a long-term dynasty asset or not.
Previous Performance
2022 was a solid year for Etienne, who rushed for over 1,100 yards and saw 45 targets, but only five total touchdowns limited his fantasy production and led to the RB18 finish. Seeing 61.3% of the running back rushes and 54.8% of running back targets is a decent but not spectacular share of the workload.
In 2023, Etienne was far more efficient in the touchdown department with 12 TDs, and he also saw a larger share of touches, seeing 75% of running back rushing attempts and 80% of running back targets. This increase in volume, particularly in the receiving game, resulted in him finishing as the overall RB3. Although that RB3 numbers flatters to deceive slightly. Etienne would have been the RB7 in 2022 with the same numbers, and he finished 7.9 points per game behind Christian McCaffrey, so while he had a fantastic season, viewing it as the overall RB3 feels a bit too rich.
Situation and Usage
It may appear that Etienne is in an incredible situation. He has a young franchise quarterback who should take the next step forward this season, and he has little clearcut competition for touches in the backfield. However, Over the past 12 months, the Jaguars have made it clear that they want to continue to limit Etienne’s workload to allow him to be his most effective. Last season, through the first 11 games, Etienne saw over 16 carries in seven of them. Through the final six games, he didn’t see more than 16 carries in a game. Sometimes, the reports out of teams are false, but the workload trend backs up the reports they want to share. Tank Bigsby was drafted to complement Etienne but struggled as a rookie. The Jaguars hope he steps up in his second season to help ease the burden on Etienne.
Etienne causes most of his damage in the passing game, and there is hope that he will continue to see the same volume. There is no prominent satellite back to take routes away, and if anything, the off-season additions of Brian Thomas Jr and Gabe Davis should stretch the defenses deep, allowing more room underneath for him to work.
Looking into the 2024 season and beyond, I would expect Etienne to see about 60% of the work on the ground but north of 75% of the work through the air. That should be enough for him to produce back-end RB1 and high-end RB2-type numbers across the whole season.
Contract
Etienne has two years remaining on his rookie contract, thanks to the fact that the Jaguars have already picked up his fifth-year option. This means that 2024 is somewhat of a make-or-break year. If he produces the Jaguars, they could enter talks to think about extending him. If he disappoints, it is likely that an extension won’t be forthcoming, and he will finish the 2025 season as a free agent. That may not sound horrendous, but the running back market has been in such flux over the past few seasons that it’s difficult to predict where he could end up.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB6 in April ADP and the 24th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth two random 2025 first-round picks. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
How you view the value of Travis Etienne says a lot about how you play dynasty. He is currently the RB6 in ADP and has the potential to be a solid, reliable back-end RB1 for at least the next two seasons. If you value reliable running back production, he is probably quite appealing. For me, the price does not warrant the upside. Having to pay RB6 prices for a player who I think has a limited ceiling over the next couple of years concerns me – particularly at the running back position where one injury can have disastrous effects on their dynasty value given the short shelf life of some backs’ careers.
Unless you’re paying up for Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Christian McCaffrey, or Jahmyr Gibbs, I would rather have a middling running back like Rhamondre Stevenson, Zamir White, or Derrick Henry, plus the additional assets you could get in a trade. I am incredibly nervous tying up that much value in a running back who is not a true difference-maker at the position. As a contender, I would instead attack a short-term elite option like Derrick Henry, who I think has a better short-term ceiling while also acquiring an additional asset on top. If you’re rebuilding and not looking to compete, then I wouldn’t be tying up any value in the running back position. I would like to shift that value to a more stable position like quarterback or wide receiver.
Paying up for slightly above-average running back production always scares me, and I think Etienne is a very expensive option without that elite ceiling. If you could trade him straight up for two future first-round picks, I would do that in a heartbeat, no matter your situation, because even as a contender, I believe you can buy better production for that price than you would get out of Etienne.
- Dynasty Decision: Cooper Kupp - June 14, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: Travis Etienne - May 24, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: Deshaun Watson - May 17, 2024
