Rookie SWOT: Kenneth Dixon

Editor’s Note: As our coverage of the 2016 NFL Draft and its impact on fantasy football continues, we bring you our 2016 Rookie SWOT series. These articles will feature video highlights, combine reviews, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, short-term expectations, long-term expectations and rookie draft advice for over 30 of the best dynasty league prospects from this year’s draft. We’ll follow that up with team-by-team draft reviews because, you know, that’s kind of what we live for.

Make sure you’re ready for your dynasty league rookie draft by staying up on all these articles, checking out our rookie draft guide, rookie rankings, rookie draft cheat sheet and mock draft rooms. There are simply no better resources out there for dynasty fantasy football enthusiasts.

Combine Review

Height: 5’10”

Weight: 215 LBS

Hands: 9 1/2”

Arm Length: 31 3/8”

Bench Press (225 LBS): 18 Reps

40-Yard-Dash: 4.58 Seconds

3-Cone-Drill: 6.97 Seconds

20-Yard-Shuttle: 4.28 Seconds

Vertical Jump: 37.5 Inches

Broad Jump: 121 Inches

60-Yard-Shuttle: 11.5 Seconds

Video Clip

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Strengths

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• Physical as a bull and finishes his runs with authority—legs never stop churning and he’s often the one delivering the blow at the end of his runs

• True three-down back with premier pass-catching skills who can block, and run both between and outside the tackles 

• Though he may lack “homerun” speed at the next level, he’s fast enough in open space to break off big runs (think Ameer Abdullah speed-wise)

• Great ball-carrier vision

• Breaks tackles with his strength and determination, and ankles with his shiftiness and jump cuts

• Exhibits patience behind the line waiting for holes to open up

• His stiff-arm is video game good

Weaknesses

• His most obvious weakness is that it is very difficult to judge how he will perform at the next level given that his successes in college came against inferior competition

• Durability concerns

• Dixon accumulated 889 offensive touches during his time at Louisiana Tech, and given his physical playing style, you have to worry about his durability

• Ball security

• Dixon fumbled the rock 13 times over the past three seasons, and if he struggles with that in Baltimore, he could quickly find himself in John Harbaugh’s doghouse 

• Lacks the speed needed to break off long, monster TD-runs

• Must improve in pass protection

• Occasionally tries to do a little too much shaking and baking, which could lead to his being caught in the backfield at the next level

Overall Skill Set

Say what you like about Conference USA, Dixon is one running back from this year’s draft class to get excited about. He is a punishing runner who will plant NFL defenders waiting for him in the secondary with his stiff arm and shear toughness after using his vision to get past the first level. Though he may not have the kind of home run speed you yearn for, his ability to slash through a defense and then knock defenders on their rears should allow him to go for big runs more than his scouting report may lead you to believe.

Kenneth Dixon College Stats

Opportunities

I love this landing spot for Dixon. Many of you in need of help at running back who weren’t already familiar with Dixon before the NFL Draft are surely looking his way now. Baltimore was one spot Lamar Miller owners were hoping he’d land in during free agency (though I’m sure they are quite pleased with post-Arian-Houston), and was among the best landing spots for running backs in this draft. Dixon may just already be the most talented back on the Ravens roster, and you have to love his chances of getting a lot of work right off the bat. Sure, the Ravens will be returning Justin Forsett, but he’s 30-years-old going on 31 (in October), and over the last eight seasons, he’s produced meaningful fantasy production in precisely one season. Behind Forsett lurks Javorius Allen, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Terrance West, and Trent Richardson. In other words, whoopity-doo. Until 2014, Forsett was a special teams contributor and third-down receiving option out of the backfield, but little more. And, to be perfectly honest with you, Allen, Taliaferro, West and Richardson just aren’t that good. So, I absolutely love Dixon’s chances in 2016. If he’s able to adjust to the playing speed of the NFL, and his talent on tape translates to the professional level, he’s going to take over the lead back role in the Ravens’ offense and not look back. 

Threats

Dixon’s biggest threat is injury. I hate putting something like this “out there,” but if he misses meaningful experience during training camp or the preseason dealing with a hamstring injury or something of the sort, he could find himself buried on the depth chart. However, he is an electric talent who I don’t see coaches being able to ignore—especially with his abilities as a receiver out of the backfield in addition to his capabilities as a runner. He’s tough, and you know he’s going to have a chip on his shoulder with all the questions circling about whether or not he can hang at the NFL level since he hails from a small school. I think that means he’s going to become more committed in pass protection and make it very tough for coaches to keep him off the field.

Short-Term Expectations

My short-term expectations for Dixon are high. I believe he is going to win the job as the Ravens’ first-string running back, and run with it. Behind of course Ezekiel Elliot, I think Dixon is postured to be the second best rookie running back this season statistically speaking, followed by Paul Perkins (Giants), Derrick Henry (Titans) and Jordan Howard (Bears). My prediction is that Dixon finishes his 2016 rookie campaign as a Top-30-35 RB, and makes a great value as someone you should be able to rely upon in your flex—especially during the second half of the year as you make your playoff push. I believe Dixon has a decent floor, and a high ceiling for the upcoming season.

Long-Term Expectations

Anyone who tells you they can accurately predict a few years into an NFL player’s future is lying to you…even if they work in the NFL. That said I am optimistic about Dixon’s future, and like what I see in his potential. If he’s able to take over the job as the Ravens’ lead back in 2016, he should maintain his grip on that role for the foreseeable future thereafter. We know Baltimore likes to win with solid defense and a sound running game, and I envision them working toward returning to that. You simply don’t win games in that division late in the year without being able to play smash mouth football. Fortunately for their sake, Dixon may just be the most physical back in this year’s draft. Though Derrick Henry is the much bigger of the two, if you go watch the tape on them both, you’ll understand what I mean. Henry’s size is what makes him a physical runner. Dixon is simply a tough S.O.B. who will make you pay for tackling him the way we grew accustomed to seeing Marshawn Lynch do.

NFL Comparison

Not so coincidentally, I see a lot of Lynch in Dixon when I watch the tape. I have seen a few Thomas Rawls comparisons, and I can see that, too. My NFL comparison for Kenneth Dixon would have to be some combination of Lynch, Rawls, and also DeMarco Murray. Dixon will leave a mark on NFL tacklers, and has the size you want in a back with his physical running style. If you compare Murray and Dixon’s measurables from their respective NFL Combines, they are actually quite similar (though Murray ran a quicker 40-yard-dash). It would not be fair to use Rawls as Dixon’s comparison because Rawls’ metrics simply fall short, and it wouldn’t be fair to use Lynch either, given the uniqueness of Marshawn. But, if you blended the three of these backs together, you’d get a back like Kenneth Dixon. 

Projected Range for a Rookie Draft

Dixon will be taken in the second half of the first-round in most rookie drafts, but will be going in varying places depending upon the specific needs of the owners in your leagues. Here at DLF, we have Dixon ranked 9th overall on our Top-50 list of 2016 Rookies. However, we currently show that his Rookie Draft ADP (based on mock drafts from May) is 7.5. I would personally prefer nabbing him somewhere around the ninth or tenth pick in the first round. If you are in need of a running back, and not holding the first overall pick, you are likely looking at Kenneth Dixon, Derrick Henry, and Paul Perkins. I think your best-case scenario would be drafting from the eighth or ninth slot, and taking the best back remaining at that time. My reasoning is simple: though all may emerge as their teams’ leading ball carrier by the end of the season, none of these three backs have a guaranteed route to the kind of workload you need from a guy you will be counting on in your flex spot. Because I think Dixon has the best, immediate path to that sort of workload, I would feel most comfortable drafting from the eighth spot and going Dixon there. There are a number of receivers that owners will likely be growing more and more enamored with the closer you get to your rookie drafts, and that should allow you to wait and get Dixon at a better value. It is vital you understand the needs of the owners in your league, and are familiar with their drafting styles because that—above any sort of analysis I could provide you—will dictate where you will be able to acquire Kenneth Dixon. Do your homework. Take the temperature of the teams drafting ahead of you, move into position, and go get your guy.

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