Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Michael Penix, QB Washington
A prospect rarely declares for the NFL Draft having spent five seasons in college. Normally, if they’ve waited that long, they aren’t a good enough prospect to be considered by the NFL and are just playing out their football career in college. Michael Penix is entering this year’s draft having spent six seasons in college. A mixture of four season-ending injuries and the extra COVID year means he spent an awfully long time in college football, and off the back of Washington’s deep run in the college football playoffs, he is now heading to the pros.
Some are huge supporters of Penix and view him as a potential day-one draft pick, while others point to the injury concerns and some flaws as reasons he should fall. Whichever way you lean, he is one of the more fascinating prospects heading into the draft.
The Stats
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
The first four years of his career with Indiana are difficult to evaluate. While Penix produced some impressive numbers, it was all done so with little surrounding talent, and each season was cut short due to injuries. However, his career took off once he landed in Washington and won the starting job. He posted back-to-back season over 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns.
Of the 44 quarterbacks in 2023 with over 400 dropbacks, Penix finished third in big-time throw rate, eighth in turnover-worthy play percentage, and fourth in pressure-to-sack rate. He had a phenomenal season and was a big part of Washington’s deep run to the college football playoffs.
The Film
Penix is your prototypical pocket passer; he is highly accurate and can layer throws in with touch. He is an elite processor who can make pre- and post-snap reads with high accuracy, ensuring the ball is delivered to the correct read on time.
The challenges for Penix showed up when he asked to create out of the structure of the offense. He is not a natural out of the pocket, and his accuracy is erratic when he doesn’t have a stable platform to throw. His release is also a little longer and slower than ideal. This can mean that despite his anticipation and accuracy, it gives defenders more chance to react than they should. He is an impressive athlete but hasn’t shown that in the last few years, as he preferred to operate from the pocket.
He could succeed in a suitable scheme where he can operate as the point guard, getting the ball out on time. However, if an offense asks too much of him, he will likely struggle to carry the team.
The Measurables
Penix didn’t work out at the combine but did run some drills during his pro day. Pro-day testing numbers are always a little up in the air, but according to ESPN, he ran somewhere between a 4.56 and 4.59, which highlights his impressive speed. He also posted a 36.5-inch vertical jump and a broad jump of 10 feet, 5 inches, either of which would have been the leading results of any quarterback at the combine.
Penix is an impressive athlete but not an otherworldly athlete, and over the past couple of years, he has not flashed that athleticism as a significant part of his game.
Dynasty Value
Penix’s value is currently a little up in the air. While he has an ADP of 12th overall from the April mock drafts, he was drafted as early as 11th overall and as late as 17th overall. If he goes in the first round of the NFL Draft, he will likely rise slightly and become a late first-round rookie pick. Any rookie quarterback drafted in the first round who has a path to playing time should be drafted in the first round of rookie drafts. If he falls to day two, he could fall to the late second round or rookie drafts, or perhaps even later.
There are few players who have more resting on their value for dynasty leagues from the NFL Draft than Penix. How early he gets drafted will make or break him as a dynasty asset.
Courtesy of DLF’s April ADP.
Currently, Penix is going as the QB29 and 105th overall player at the back end of the ninth round. This is QB3 territory and fits his profile as a boom/bust fantasy asset right now. If he lands a starting spot in the NFL, the ninth round is incredible value, and he will rise considerably. If he falls, then his value will plummet into the double-digit rounds.
I am a big fan of Penix. I think he has enough arm talent to succeed in the NFL and is a good enough processor to operate a talented and well-scheduled offense. He is never going to be a player who can put the team on his back and carry them to success. However, as the point guard of the offense, he can be fantastic.
I will aggressively target him in the late first round of superflex drafts if, as I believe, the NFL makes him a day-one draft pick. He may not be an immediate starter, which could reduce his ADP in rookie drafts, but he will see the field soon enough, and given his experience, he shouldn’t take long to get up to speed in the league.
- Dynasty Decision: Evan Engram - May 3, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Michael Penix, QB Washington - April 20, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: DK Metcalf - April 19, 2024
