Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Justin Fields
It’s time to get a little spicy on the ‘Raise the Value of Your Roster’ tour! There hasn’t been much risk in the free agents or injured players we have talked about so far. Free agents will play somewhere and injured players will get healthy again (usually). But what about a player who plays a very valuable position and whose team fell into the first pick of the NFL Draft the same year the top prospect in the NFL Draft happens to be a “generational” prospect at that same position?
I am sure most of you see where I am going with this but just to sound formal for the article’s sake, today we are going to be talking about…
Justin Fields, QB CHI (for now!)
Many things are affecting his value right now. When you look on social media, there doesn’t seem to be a middle ground when talking about Fields, people either are all in or all out. “Even if Chicago drafts Caleb Williams, the Bears will trade Fields and he will start somewhere” or “Fields is bad, he will go and be a career backup somewhere” seem to be the two screaming points on the internet. If he does get traded, where would he get traded to? Speaking of the draft, there is a chance that three quarterbacks get taken in the first three picks. Do any or all of those QBs get ranked above Fields for you?
Before we look through the Trade Finder and see how all of those feelings pan out in trade value, let’s look at some numbers. In January Superflex ADP, Fields ranks as QB12 and 16th overall. While missing four full games and getting hurt mid-game, he finished as the QB18 overall and QB11 in points per game (21.2). In 2022, missing only one game, he finished as the QB8 overall and QB6 in points per game with 22.0. To put this in a team perspective, the Bears had a total of 10 wins between those two seasons.
My summation of all of this information is that Justin Fields is a good quarterback for fantasy football regardless of how you think of him as a real-life quarterback and regardless of the level of team he plays for.
Let’s now go through the DLF Trade Finder and Trade Analyzer and look to see if we think the trade value is worth the risk or worth selling so you don’t have to deal with the risk.
The settings of this league are pretty unique. This is a 32-team league where you don’t have to start a QB but you can start one. The team trading away the first finished in the middle of the pack. But let’s pretend we are talking about a 12-team, 1QB league. In that league setting, any quarterback that isn’t “elite” has a serious drop in value but if you are telling me I can send a mid-second to get a player who – on a terrible team and in a bad year – can still finish as QB11-6 in points per game, I think you absolutely take that (lack of) risk.
12 team, superflex, PPR.
There were a few very similar trades in the Trade Finder – picks in the 1.08 – 1.10 area being sent for Fields. While sending a mid-second-round rookie pick sounds like a lot more fun, I still think this is a very safe bet. These picks are, as of now, outside of the top tier of players and definitely outside of the top tier quarterback’s range. If I were going to acquire Fields, I would accept these offers all day. If I were trying to trade Fields away, I would try and get that pick up to the 1.07 and if that doesn’t work I would want a strong second-round pick value coming with the lower first.
12 team, superflex, PPR.
This is a fun one.
First, we see that the team upgrading and sending more pieces in the deal overpaid value-wise, which they should have. Whenever I see a two-for-one trade I first think about it from the trading down side. Would I be willing to let Joe Burrow go to acquire Justin Fields and Puka Nacua? Honestly, yes I would. I love Burrow and believe he belongs in the second tier of quarterbacks that his ADP and trade value have set him in. I also think that the three-to-five points per game you might be losing at quarterback are more than covered when bringing in a receiver like Nacua.
Coming off of literally the best receiving rookie season in history, Nacua has planted himself as a top-ten dynasty wide receiver. Even if you think last season would be the best season of his career, he can stand to drop a few stats in each category and still be a great fantasy asset. Or more likely, you can just trade him to someone in your league who does believe in him. Flipping this around, would I trade these two players to upgrade my quarterback position to Burrow? Personally, no, but if I am a person from the internet who believes that Fields will be a backup somewhere then absolutely! Even if you do find that rare “middle of the field” (pun intended) person, I think they would be willing to make this move to get Burrow.
There are two sides to every coin. The two sides of this coin seem to be intrigue or despair. Either way, those are two sides that can be taken advantage of in dynasty trades. Check in on the manager with Fields on their roster and see how they are feeling about his future and if you feel the wavering in their voice/text message, then go in for the trade offer!
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