Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Middle Tier

Fantasy football managers have a short fuse yet a long memory. Your top wide receiver bombs in a critical playoff matchup? Some may be tempted to blackball them from their rosters for life. Start slowly after being identified as an August sleeper? You may be traded for a single blind bidding dollar by Week 4.

Of course, we tend to gravitate back towards the top talent, regardless of the heartbreak. The largest blind spot may young players who were never expected to be impact players from day one and end up floating at the end of rosters. There is always a point where it is time to throw in the towel on a player, but these players are too young to bail on just yet.

To define “young”, we are highlighting players with two or fewer years of NFL experience. Those in the 2022 and 2023 rookie classes. The structure for tiers will be as follows:

• Top Tier: ADP < 84.0 (first seven rounds of a 12-team startup draft)
• Middle Tier: ADP > 84.1 and < 168.0 (rounds eight through 14 in a startup draft)
• Bottom Tier: ADP > 168.1 (the rest)

Tyler Justin Karp started us with the top tier. We will continue with the middle tier below.

Josh Downs, WR IND

ADP: 97.5

Age: 22

Years In League: One

Downs is right in the sweet spot for this piece. He was a solid – if second-tier – prospect. He had a strong yet unspectacular rookie season. He is now getting pushed down in ADP thanks to the influx of rookies hitting the league.

A top 100 ADP is far from disrespectful, yet Downs is not getting the helium the rising sophomores often receive. The lack of boarding onto the hype train has created a perfect opportunity to attain Downs at a reasonable cost.

His jump in WR ADP has been incredibly mild despite him posting a 68-771-2 line catching passes from Gardner Minshew. While the situation in Indianapolis was far from a disaster, it was middling at best despite being led by Shane Steichen, an offensive head coach who looks to have a promising future in this league. The Colts have a target hog in Michael Pittman yet little behind him.

Despite a 5’9” and 171-pound frame, Downs plays big and uses his athleticism to torment defenders near the line of scrimmage. I trust the Colts to maximize his talent and expect him to become a PPR cheat code as a slot receiver for an ascending offense.

Luke Musgrave, TE GB

ADP: 141.33

Age: 23

Years In League: One

Musgrave may simply be a victim of circumstance. Beyond the dozen or so receivers under the age of 25, the Packers have who are demanding targets, Green Bay also received a strong rookie season from fellow tight end Tucker Kraft, who was drafted only one round after Musgrave. On paper, the pathway to significant targets is tough to see.

After Jordan Love’s breakout season, however, we want pieces of this offense. Target hierarchies have a tendency to sort themselves out, and Musgrave has the tools to stay on the field for all three downs. The 42nd overall pick in 2023, Musgrave could have flirted with round one had he had better injury luck at Oregon State. Just look at this athleticism:

Musgrave has the type of skills that scream high-end receiving tight end. He is a natural mover whose only bugaboo has been injuries, depressing his ADP to the point where he is an easy pick. His ADP of TE18 is far too low, and I have him clocking in at TE13.

Jerome Ford, RB CLE

ADP: 145.33

Age: 24

Years In League: Two

Nick Chubb’s unfortunate injury created a great opportunity for Ford in 2023, and he rewarded the Browns with 1,132 total yards and nine scores. It was a strong second season for the former Cincinnati Bearcat and cemented him as a piece of Cleveland’s backfield moving forward.

At an ADP of 145.33, dynasty teams appear to be treating Ford as a mere handcuff. While I do not expect him to put a stranglehold on this backfield – especially as he worked in tandem with veteran Kareem Hunt in 2023 – there is a clear path to immediate touches in Cleveland. Looking at some recent trades utilizing DLF’s Trade Finder, Ford is being treated as a sweetener:

I am not going to bang the table for Ford as a premier dynasty asset. He has too many flaws to emerge as a centerpiece for your roster. Yet I find his value far too meager at this juncture; this is still a third-year back who has found success within a run-heavy offense. Chubb is returning but is coming off a gruesome knee injury. There was damage to multiple ligaments and the meniscus; after repairing the torn MCL and meniscus in September, Chubb had a second surgery in November to repair the torn ACL. While this was not considered a setback, a November surgery puts his timeline into question for 2024.

Chubb is undoubtedly one of the great runners of our generation. But this injury is no joke. Entering his age-29 season, it is fair to wonder if the best he has to offer is in the past. The bigger issue for Ford may be a Browns depth chart which now includes Nyheim Hines, Pierre Strong Jr, and D’Onta Foreman, but it seems unlikely they all make the roster. I will put my money on Ford being the clear standout beyond Chubb, and even as a short-term asset, his current cost is incredibly palatable.