2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Audric Estime, RB Notre Dame
Many people are down on the 2024 running back class. It does not have the premier backs of 2023 with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, but I still think there is talent. I do not think there will be a running back picked in the first round but there are players who could eventually become starters in the NFL.
One of the interesting players is Audric Estime out of Notre Dame. He is more of your traditional old-school running back and some teams still desire that but how high might he go?
The Stats
Estime was a top 16 running back in the 2021 class per 247 Sports and chose the Irish over the likes of Michigan State and Arizona State.
In his first year at Notre Dame, he did not get much run because Kyren Williams dominated the workload with over 64% of the carries for running backs that season.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
In 2022, Estime got much more action in a three-back rotation. He shared time with Chris Tyree and Logan Diggs. Estime and Diggs split evenly but Estime got more touchdowns, 11 to 4. After 2022, Diggs transferred to LSU and Tyree made the move to wide receiver. This cleared the way for Estime to be the feature back.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
As the lead back, Estime had over 200 carries for over 1,300 yards and 18 touchdowns. The second leading back had only 385 yards. Estime drove the offense and showed he could carry the load by himself. He almost doubled his receptions in 2023 (9 to 17) but only had a small increase in yardage.
The Film
As I stated earlier, Estime is a throwback power player who is a rarity now in the NFL. He is very hard to take down and can break arm tackles easily. When there is not much room at the line of scrimmage, he is able to push or fall forward for positive yards.
He did not run well at the Scouting Combine (see next section), but I think he shows good quickness and speed for his size on film. In the open field, he was able to outrun defenders for long gains.
Another positive that could get teams interested is his ability in pass protection. He shows good technique and has improved his pass-blocking grade every year according to Pro Football Focus. He has good hands, is an average receiver, and would mostly be utilized as an outlet or on screens.
I do not think Estime has great vision, and he doesn’t find the cut-back lanes. He is a more up-the-middle runner but does have some moves to avoid defenders. While I like his patience, at times he waits too long to get to the hole and limits the gain he could get. Against better defenses like Ohio State, he struggled because it took him some time to get going with his lack of acceleration.
The Measurables
Estime has the frame to take a pounding and can carry defenders for extra yardage. We knew he was not going to run that fast in the 40-yard dash but his 4.71 was still disappointing. It does not mean that he cannot be successful in the NFL as fellow Notre Dame teammate Kyren Williams ran a 4.65. This did make Williams fall in the draft, however.
In comparison to Williams, Estime had a much better score on RAS, and he does have a comparable player who was very successful in the NFL, James Stewart. But Stewart was drafted back in 1995 so that should be taken with a grain of salt. His explosion grade is promising but his speed grade will cause teams to question if he is more than just a two-down back.
Dynasty Value
Estime hurt his stock in his testing, and he was always going to be a fringe day-two player but now is clearly in the day-three consideration.
Courtesy of Mock Draft Database.
Estime is going as pick 32 in rookie ADP in 1QB leagues, as the RB8 ahead of Bucky Irving. That is surprising because I think Irving translates better to the NFL. Even Will Shipley is behind him, and I may take the chance on Shipley because of his receiving skills. There are some receivers like Jalen McMillan I would take over Estime as well. I think the third round is right for him, but it would be closer to the end of the third for good value.
Courtesy of DLF’s Rookie ADP.
Conclusion
You cannot always go by the testing to see how good a player will be on the field. In Estime’s film, you see a quick player who does not have blazing speed but adequate speed to be a good runner. The main question is does the NFL feel the same way?
Estime as of now is RB8 or RB9 of the class and would fit into round three of most rooking drafts depending on the draft capital. If he falls in the draft, I could even see him being a fourth-round pick in rookie drafts.
Could he go to a team and be the physical part of a running back tandem like Gus Edwards? The problem is he is limited in his receiving ability and is going to be touchdown-dependent. You cannot deny his production in 2023 though, so he is a player I would be willing to take a risk on in the late third round and especially in the fourth round.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Brian Thomas, WR LSU - April 21, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.09 - April 15, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Keon Coleman, WR Florida State - April 10, 2024
