Monday Mocks: 2024 March Superflex Startup ADP

Ryan McDowell Posted On March 18, 2024

Welcome to Monday Mocks, where I’ll bring you…you guessed it, a new mock draft every Monday during the off-season. In my opinion, drafting is the best part of fantasy football, so I do as much of that as I can. This series will be filled with all types of mocks. We’ll draft startups, rookies, devys, and more.

Our March dynasty ADP mock drafts are wrapping up and that brand-new data will be posted here on the site very soon. Until then, I wanted to share a sneak peek at how the top players in the game are being valued in superflex dynasty leagues.

This is our second month to include the incoming rookie class and the player values have been changing rapidly, thanks to the NFL Combine earlier this month, along with recent free agency news. Here are the current top-60 dynasty players for superflex leagues.

ROUND ONE:

1.01 Patrick Mahomes, QB KC
1.02 Josh Allen, QB BUF
1.03 Jalen Hurts, QB PHI
1.04 Lamar Jackson, QB BAL
1.05 CJ Stroud, QB HOU
1.06 Joe Burrow, QB CIN
1.07 Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
1.08 Justin Herbert, QB LAC
1.09 Anthony Richardson, QB IND
1.10 CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL
1.11 Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN
1.12 Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DET

It’s no surprise to see a run of quarterbacks at the top of the superflex ADP list. The top six picks and eight of the top nine are signal callers. Only Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson spoils the quarterback run.
Although they are listed as the 1.01 and 1.02, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen actually have the exact same ADP of 1.5, tying them for the top overall spot. That represents a small move up for Allen, who was the 1.02 last month.
Jalen Hurts rebounded after dropping to the 1.04 spot last month, flip-flopping with Ravens star Lamar Jackson. Essentially, this means the group that we have referred to as the “big three” for the past year or more is now either a clear top-two or a “big four.” Personally, I view Hurts as dropping down a tier and Mahomes and Allen as separating themselves from the rest of the pack.
The middle of round one includes a trio of players who could see their value dip as a result of free agency. Joe Burrow sits at 1.06 but could be in danger of losing one of his key targets after Tee Higgins requested a trade. Jefferson already lost his quarterback when Kirk Cousins flew south to Atlanta. Finally, the Chargers were cap-strapped and forced to part ways with Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams, leaving Justin Herbert resembling the Fresh Prince of Bel-Air “all alone” meme.
The top 12 concludes with a trio of receivers in CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. This feels like the correct top-twelve players but I am surprised at the ADP gap between Jefferson (6.5) and the latter three (9.75, 11.25, and 13.75, in order.)

ROUND TWO:

2.01 Dak Prescott, QB DAL
2.02 Bijan Robinson, RB ATL
2.03 Kyler Murray, QB ARI
2.04 Caleb Williams, QB ROOKIE
2.05 Marvin Harrison Jr, WR ROOKIE
2.06 Jordan Love, QB GB
2.07 Breece Hall, RB NYJ
2.08 AJ Brown, WR PHI
2.09 Trevor Lawrence, QB JAX
2.10 Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ
2.11 Christian McCaffrey, RB SF
2.12 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott kicks off the second round as the QB9 overall. While Prescott has been among the best fantasy producers over the past several seasons, he is rarely included in the elite tier from a value standpoint.
There were noticeably no running backs in the first round, which makes Bijan Robinson the dynasty RB1 at fourteenth overall. The coaching change in Atlanta, followed by shoring up the quarterback position solidifies Robinson’s spot at the top and helps his overall value.
The first two rookies come off the board in the middle of this second round. As expected, Caleb Williams is the top rookie according to ADP, followed immediately by Marvin Harrison, Jr. With the recent Bears moves, any doubts about Williams becoming the first overall pick and the next starter in Chicago are all but gone. I expect the former USC star to continue to gain value and move into the first round in the coming months.
The Jets have a pair of young stars in this second group of twelve, with Breece Hall (RB2/19 overall) and Garrett Wilson (WR7/22 overall). Assuming veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers is healthy entering the 2024 season, this young duo should be in position to continue to climb the ADP and rankings list.

ROUND THREE:

3.01 Puka Nacua, WR LAR
3.02 Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA
3.03 Malik Nabers, WR ROOKIE
3.04 Justin Fields, QB PIT
3.05 Brock Purdy, QB SF
3.06 Chris Olave, WR NO
3.07 Jayden Daniels, QB ROOKIE
3.08 Sam LaPorta, TE DET
3.09 Tyreek Hill, WR MIA
3.10 Drake Maye, QB ROOKIE
3.11 Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
3.12 Kyren Williams, RB LAR

The third-round conversation has to start with new Steelers quarterback Justin Fields. Obviously, this data was collected prior to the recent trade to Pittsburgh, and even more obviously, Fields will be a major faller following the trade that netted the Bears just a sixth-round pick. While this is a blow to Fields’ dynasty value, it also hurts the overall quarterback landscape, as a young, seemingly high-upside quarterback had his value decimated in a matter of days.
The third round also includes a trio of rookies, including former LSU teammates Malik Nabers and Jayden Daniels. Those two, along with Drake Maye, are all projected to be top-ten picks in the NFL Draft. By the NFL Draft, it should not be a surprise to see both Daniels and Maye overtake some of the veteran quarterbacks currently being valued ahead of them.
Lions Sam LaPorta continues to be locked in as the dynasty TE1, well ahead of the TE2. The Lions have yet to add any real competition for targets, suggesting LaPorta could run it back in 2024, though it will be a challenge to match his touchdown efficiency.
Kyren Williams checks in as the RB6 and the second Ram in Round Three. Despite his disappointing athletic profile entering the league, Williams broke out in his second season and dynasty managers have completely bought into the Rams back as an established dynasty asset.

Drake Maye | Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports

ROUND FOUR:

4.01 Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA
4.02 Jared Goff, QB DET
4.03 De’Von Achane, RB MIA
4.04 Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
4.05 Nico Collins, WR HOU
4.06 Rome Odunze, WR ROOKIE
4.07 DJ Moore, WR CHI
4.08 DeVonta Smith, WR PHI
4.09 DK Metcalf, WR SEA
4.10 Travis Etienne, RB JAX
4.11 Rashee Rice, WR KC
4.12 Michael Pittman, WR IND

Jared Goff has been a rapid riser over the past year, especially in recent months. Not so long ago, Goff was viewed as a short-term rental and the Lions somewhat fed that narrative, using a Day Two pick on Hendon Hooker last year. Now though, Goff is being viewed and valued as the long-term starter and his ADP is rising as a result.
The projected 1.06 pick in rookie drafts shows up in Round Four as former Washington receiver Rome Odunze lands as the WR15. Many draftniks are projecting Odunze to be selected ahead of Nabers in the NFL Draft, but there is a sizable gap between the two when it comes to dynasty value.
DJ Moore had an excellent first season in Chicago and I expect his dynasty value to take another step up following the expected addition of rookie quarterback Williams. Moore finished as a WR1 in 35% of his games last season but was a bit of a boom-or-bust player as he only scored as a WR2 or WR3 in 21% of his games. More consistency along with that same high ceiling is the expectation for 2024.

ROUND FIVE:

5.01 Saquon Barkley, RB PHI
5.02 Drake London, WR ATL
5.03 Zay Flowers, WR BAL
5.04 Trey McBride, TE ARI
5.05 Kenneth Walker, RB SEA
5.06 Kirk Cousins, QB ATL
5.07 Tee Higgins, WR CIN
5.08 Jordan Addison, WR MIN
5.09 Bryce Young, QB CAR
5.10 Tank Dell, WR HOU
5.11 Deshaun Watson, QB CLE
5.12 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA

Saquon Barkley is the RB9, based on data collected before he left the Giants for their division-rival Eagles. The Philadelphia offense has helped Miles Sanders and D’Andre Swift produce career-years in the past two seasons, so yeah…I think Barkley could do well here. I expect him to be a value-gainer in the coming months.
Kirk Cousins’ dynasty value was already recovering from his season-ending injury very well and landing in Atlanta with a stacked roster of playmakers will only help. Cousins has played with elite skill position teammates before and supported them well. Assuming he’s fully healthy, and the early reports have been positive, Cousins can be a fantasy QB1 in 2024.
The Browns have made some noise, signing multiple quarterbacks during the free agency period. Both Jameis Winston and Tyler Huntley are capable, but neither should overtake Deshaun Watson. While the results have not matched expectations, Watson was still a QB1 in half of his limited 2023 games after finishing the 2022 season with a pair of top-12 performances. At this discount, I like Watson as a draft or trade target this offseason.

We’ll be back next week with another mock draft!

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.