Keenan Allen traded to Chicago: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact
Over the years, we’ve seen some amazing PPR receivers in dynasty leagues. Michael Thomas, Antonio Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp are some of the recent best. However, any list featuring consistent Hall of Fame-level PPR wide receivers has to include Keenan Allen. The (now) former Charger has been a mainstay in fantasy lineups over the past decade and proven to be one of the most reliable players, year-in and year-out. However, the cash-strapped Chargers have been forced to rebuild and Allen is the latest to go as he was traded to the Chicago Bears for a fourth round pick. The move is significant in dynasty leagues so let’s take a look at the players involved and their updated dynasty value.
Keenan Allen, WR CHI
Over his eleven seasons in the NFL, Allen has posted 904 catches for 10,530 yards and scored 59 touchdowns. He’s in the top-50 all time in yards (47), top-30 in catches (26) and top-100 in touchdown receptions (99). He’s 31 but was on pace for a career season before being injured last year. In the end, he finished with 108 catches for 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns. Had he stayed healthy, we could have been looking at a season with more than 140 catches, 1,600 yards and double-digit touchdowns. In short, Allen hasn’t lost it, despite his advanced age.
Allen is clearly the victim of a payroll problem in Los Angeles. New Head Coach Jim Harbaugh is essentially forced to start from scratch and it was time for him to move on. The new move is going to be a tough on to gauge early on. First, the Bears need to replace Justin Fields, who was sent to Pittsburgh. It seems they’re locked in on Caleb Williams at this point and are poised to make him the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams is going to need to develop quickly in order for Allen to produce the same numbers we’re used to but Allen’s game should also benefit a rookie quarterback as he gets open in the middle of the field, is terrific on third downs and doesn’t rely on elite athletic ability to get open deep. In other words, Allen just knows where to go and does it as consistently as anyone in the league.
The bigger challenge for Allen may be the presence of DJ Moore on the opposite side of him. Moore was traded to Chicago in the deal that brought them the 1.01 in the NFL Draft last year. His first season in Chicago was a solid one as he posted 96 catches for 1,364 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, all good for career highs. The Bears have never been a team to maintain elite value for a single wide receiver consistently, no less two. On paper, it would seem Allen is the perfect complement to Moore, though. If Williams is “as advertised,” he should be able to provide solid value for both. While neither is likely to post career best numbers any time soon, it would seem they both have a chance for WR2 numbers at worst. Allen’s ADP may slip a little but he remains a solid target for a contending dynasty team – there are few players you can get with his price tag who could put up the weekly statistics he can.
DJ Moore, WR CHI
Moore had one of the strangest seasons in recent memory last year. As mentioned, he posted a 96/1,364/8 line last year, good enough to be in top-10 at the position in PPR leagues. However, he also had just five games with at least 100 yards and one game that inflated his stats, as he went off for eight catches for 230 yards and three touchdowns in a game against Washington early in the season. Still, we’ve seen the talent in this 26-year old and he should remain the WR1 in the offense. Allen is bound to take some targets away from Moore (and Cole Kmet) but again, his value is really going to be dependent on the performance of a rookie quarterback, be that Caleb Williams or someone else. If that rookie performs like Bryce Young, this could get messy. If they perform like CJ Stroud did last year, it could be fun. Again, Allen’s presence is bound to have an impact on Moore’s numbers, making him a WR2 more than a WR1 but this is far from tragic as well.
Other Bears Receivers
It’s going to be tough for any quarterback to maintain value for Allen, Moore and Kmet, no less anyone from the group that consists of Tyler Scott, Dante Pettis, Velus Jones, When you consider this group is likely going to grow during the NFL Draft, it’s pretty easy to stay away from them with Allen in the fold – look elsewhere for your sleeper receivers in dynasty leagues.
Caleb Williams, QB USC
All roads lead here. While it’s possible the Bears take a different rookie quarterback, all signs point to them taking Williams at this point, Most rookies don’t have much talent surrounding them when they enter the league but it seems Williams is going to have the likes of D’Andre Swift, Moore, Allen, and Kmet to use on offense. While the weather in Chicago can wreak havoc on quarterbacks (no less rookies), this could be a fantastic situation for Williams from day one. He’ll have a lot to prove but skill players like this are going to be the envy of a lot of veterans out there. The Bears are clearly taking no chances on creating an environment for their new quarterback to be successful and it’s exciting to see that in dynasty leagues.
Justin Herbert, QB LAC
The Chargers offense has been built around the talents of Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen over the last few years. Unfortunately for Herbert, he’s the only one who remains after Williams was released, Ekeler signed with Washington and Allen was traded. Herbert is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league but this is going to be hard to rebound from, His ADP is going to dip as the Chargers enter a rebuild and while he should still post QB1 numbers, it’s hard to see his production level reaching the same heights until the Chargers can replenish the cupboard.
Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, WRs LAC
With every move, there are winners and losers. It’s pretty easy to look at the Chargers depth chart and see a massive opportunity for this pair. Palmer has shown well in flashes but has always been in the shadows of Allen and Williams. As for Johnston, his rookie season of 38/431/2 was a massive disappointment. While the Chargers are bound to add more receivers in the NFL Draft (maybe in the first round), this is going to be a golden opportunity for both of these players to really emerge in fantasy and reality. Now is the time for both to establish themselves in dynasty leagues long-term.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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