Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Tank Dell

There are only a few aspects of fantasy football that cause pure pride and elation. Winning championships, crushing some trades, and mercilessly trash-talking your league-mates after a victory are some of the strongest examples of this. But I think one of the best feelings is being right on a player.

Whether you were watching them as a prospect, reading articles, listening to podcasts, or watching the fantastic videos on the Dynasty League Football YouTube channel, we form opinions and sometimes feel so strongly that we plant our flag, saying: “I like this player. He will be good”. This can be easy when we are talking about players at the top of draft classes. Sure, we all knew Ja’Marr Chase was going to be good. Oh, you thought Breece Hall was talented? Cool, so did just about everyone else. But when you get further into the draft class and slide down a few rounds of a rookie draft, that is the sweet spot of planting your flag and screaming from the rooftops. The kind of proclamation that has you doing victory laps on social media (and sometimes in your living rooms on Sunday).

The next best part of being right on a player is the cost of acquisition. You are drafting these players in the third or fourth rounds of rookie drafts, or just getting them very cheap in auctions, and get to sit around and watch the value skyrocket as points start racking up on your team. The first, and strongest example of this situation this year was Puka Nacua. Nacua was drafted in rookie drafts on average as the WR16 at pick 49 and in February 2023, and his 1QB ADP was WR94 at pick 225. Leaving his draft capital in the wind, he then finished the season as WR5 in total points and now ranks as the WR7 at pick 10 in January 2024, 1QB ADP.

We aren’t talking about Nacua though. We are talking about the rookie wide receiver drafted on average one pick earlier in startups. We are going to look at the current value of WR93 at pick 224 in February 2023, 1QB ADP and WR12 at pick 36 on average in rookie drafts…

Tank Dell, WR HOU

Before breaking his Fibula in week 13, Dell was scoring as the WR10 in points per game with 17.2. Unfortunately for his points-per-game average, Dell broke his leg in the game before catching any passes, adding a goose egg to his scores. The season ended with the diminutive Texans receiver as WR17 in points per game with 15.7.

The reason I thought it would be more worthwhile to talk about Dell over Nacua is the very strong psychological phenomenon known as “out of sight, out of mind”. Both the Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans made the playoffs but we got to watch Nacua post a nine reception, 182 yards, and one touchdown stat line. Already logging in as WR7 in January, this can only mean another notch up the value belt loop for Nacua. January ADP had Dell ranked as the WR21 at pick 30 overall surrounded by receivers like DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Zay Flowers; with Metcalf being the only player to have a similar scoring season per game as Dell.

Tying all of this into last week’s article is the fact that there could be an advantage to trying to acquire injured players in the non-point-scoring season since we have gone so long without seeing them on the field we may have forgotten what they were capable of. As we get closer to setting lineups and scoring points we start to concentrate harder on how a player performed and what that means for our lineup going forward. So maybe you missed out on Dell in your rookie drafts, and maybe you decided not to trade for him at the peak of his point scoring, but is now the right time? Let’s dive into the DLF Trade Finder and Trade Analyzer and take a look!

12 team, 1QB, 0.5ppr, start 9.

I am a very big fan of Saquon Barkley. Talent-wise, I believe he is one of the most talented running backs in the league. But if you tell me I can turn a soon-to-be 27-year-old running back on a mess of a team like the Giants into a second-year wide receiver coming off of a very strong rookie year, on an up-and-coming team like the Texans, I will feel pretty good about it. And while only coming in at 91.3 points on the Trade Analyzer, I really like getting the dart throw of Roschon Johnson with the changes in Chicago. The analyzer has Dell worth more than Barkley straight up and I agree.

12 team, 1QB, PPR, start 9.

Every coin has two sides. Maybe you drafted Dell and had fun watching the points and value roll in but you aren’t a believer. Why not take advantage of the production and hype and see if you can use that to upgrade at the position? Moving from Dell to AJ Brown with adding the (unfortunately) practically valueless JK Dobbins seems like a no-brainer. Despite only being a rookie, there is only a two-year age difference between Dell and Brown. Plus, we have seen multiple years of production and talent from Brown. Even if I am rebuilding or trying to shed some age from my roster I need something major to drop multiple tiers down to Dell.

12 team, 1QB, PPR, start 10.

I would look to do this move with any roster of mine that has Stefon Diggs. With Diggs’ production falling steeply through the second half of the season and with him being 30 years old, we may see a cliff dive in dynasty value. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Diggs comes back next season and reverts back to elite production but given the ageism that exists in many dynasty managers, there may never be a time going forward where Diggs and Dell are this close in value again.

The only downside to making this move to Dell is the risk that he doesn’t return to form after the injury but at the risk of an already declining asset, I think this is every penny worth the bet. Not to ignore the other pieces in the deal – Jared Goff is a nice starter/streaming option in a 12-team, one QB league but chances are Mike Williams never makes his way into a starting lineup again. That just adds to the value of the Dell/Goff side.

We can’t get every player’s prediction correct but that doesn’t mean we can’t get these awesome players on our teams. There are spikes and valleys in every player’s value and the non-point-scoring season is the valley we are looking for when it comes to injured or overproducing players. This is just another example of this. Do any other young or injured players come to mind when reading this? Go send some offers!