Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Running Backs
Each week throughout the 2023 NFL season, we have covered two or more rookies, looking at their performance to date and future potential. With the 2023 season now complete, the final report cards are due. I’ll only look at their time on the field, ignoring injuries that caused them to miss games. This week, we’ll look back at the 2023 rookie running backs.
Bijan Robinson, RB ATL
2023 stats: 214 carries for 976 yards and four touchdowns, 58 receptions on 86 targets for 487 yards and four touchdowns; 246 PPR points, RB9 overall
Robinson’s rookie season was a success; it just wasn’t the massive smash success we had expected. He was considered the RB1 in dynasty long before even being drafted eighth overall. That kind of hype was nearly impossible to live up to, especially considering everything we thought about his usage was utterly incorrect. Thanks, Arthur Smith. Don’t let the door hit you in the you know where on the way out.
Robinson was everything we thought he could be as a runner, but the most encouraging thing we saw was his passing game usage. His 58 receptions and four receiving touchdowns kept his fantasy production afloat. I don’t think many had him outproducing Jahmyr Gibbs in that phase of the game, but he did. The future is exceptionally bright now that we are out from under the previous coaching regime. Almost anyone Atlanta brings in should be an upgrade for the offense. If they can somehow address the quarterback situation in the same offseason, we could be looking at a juggernaut in 2024. All the other pieces are in place.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET
2023 stats: 182 carries for 945 yards and ten touchdowns, 52 receptions on 71 targets for 316 yards and one touchdown; 242.1 PPR points, RB10 overall
Gibbs finished with only 3.9 points fewer than Robinson and did it in two fewer games. The most surprising thing about his production is that it mostly came on the ground. We expected him to get 50+ receptions, but I don’t think anyone expected ten touchdowns on the ground with 26% of the snaps inside the five-yard line. Gibbs turned 21 carries into five touchdowns inside the opponent’s ten-yard line. Overall, he saw 55% of the snaps but only 42% of the rushing share, so there is room for his role to grow.
Gibbs’ dominant performances as a receiver were no surprise. If he hadn’t missed two games, he likely would have approached 60 receptions. I think the team really likes David Montgomery, and he is locked in through 2024 with an option to get out after next season. Gibbs proved he could be productive alongside Montgomery, but the fantasy production was undoubtedly better without him. In the 12 games with Montgomery, Gibbs averaged 14.4 PPR points, but in the three without him, that jumped to 22.2. In those three weeks, he finished as the RB1 in week eight, the RB2 in week ten, and the RB3 in week 11.
De’Von Achane RB MIA
2023 stats: 103 carries for 800 yards and eight touchdowns, 27 receptions on 37 targets for 197 yards and three touchdowns; 190.7 PPR points; RB24 overall
No running back had higher highs than Achane. We all know by now that yards per carry isn’t a great stat but it’s hard not to be impressed with his 7.77 YPC over 103 carries. His 51.3 PPR point performance against the Broncos in week three was followed by 27 in week four and 21.5 in week five. The middle of the season was rough as he missed the next six games (one touch in week 11) before returning in week 13 with a 25.3-point day. The ceiling for Achane is massive, both as a runner and a receiver, but the floor is lava. The dynasty community was concerned with his size heading into the season, and unlike Gibbs, he didn’t do enough to quell those fears.
Still, Achane is one of the fastest players in the league and is in the perfect offensive scheme to showcase his skillset. The Dolphins will likely bring in a bigger back to handle much of the dirty work, as Raheem Mostert will be entering his age-32 season, and Miami has an easy out on his contract if they choose to take it. Jeff Wilson is in a similar situation. He’ll turn 29 during the 2024 season, and the team also has an easy out should they choose to part ways.
Tyjae Spears, RB TEN
2023 stats: 100 carries for 453 yards and two touchdowns; 52 receptions on 70 targets for 385 yards and one touchdown; 153 PPR points; RB34 overall
Despite a challenging season for the Tennessee Titans, Spears showcased his dynamic abilities and carved out a role as a valuable contributor in his rookie season. The massive shadow of Derrick Henry loomed large, but Spears offered some versatility in an offense starving for playmakers. He impressed with his explosiveness, vision, and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and provided a completely different look for opposing defenses than Henry.
With Henry likely moving on from Tennessee, Spears’ potential in 2024 is tantalizing should he receive a starter’s workload. It’s unlikely he will get the backfield to himself, but he can score fantasy points in various ways, so I’m not afraid of any potential competition coming his way. So far, his lack of an ACL has not been an issue. He receives a slightly lower future potential grade than he otherwise would have due to uncertainty in his career longevity. However, the next two to three seasons could be really fun for Spears managers.
Zach Charbonnet, RB SEA
2023 stats: 108 carries for 462 yards and one touchdown, 33 receptions on 44 targets for 209 yards; 106.1 PPR points; RB45 overall
As a huge Charbonnet fan, I have to admit that his season was a mild disappointment. I expected him to force a 50/50 timeshare, which he did, but it resulted in a 33% rushing share to Kenneth Walker’s 67%. I also expected him to take a significant amount of the running back target share, but instead, he simply matched Walker’s 8%.
On film, he looked good, even great, at times. Outside of the two games Walker missed, there simply wasn’t enough usage for Charbonnet to have any consistent production or ceiling. The future is uncertain. Walker still has two seasons remaining on his rookie deal and is unlikely to go anywhere else until 2026. To complicate matters, we’ll have a new coaching staff coming in, and we have no idea how the new regime will view these two backs.
Honorable Mentions
Tank Bigsby (RB88) and Kendre Miller (RB70) had to be the two most disappointing running backs in the class. I thought Bigsby was good enough to force a 1a/1b situation with Travis Etienne. Still, he fumbled away his opportunities early in the season, and by week ten, he was eclipsed by D’Ernest Johnson as the second running back for the Jaguars. Miller only played in seven games his rookie season but finished with an excellent 14.9-point performance in week 18, which was good for an RB13 performance in the season’s final week.
Roschon Johnson was the best all-around back for the Chicago Bears. He came out of the gate strong in week one with 17.5 points, good for RB8 overall in his first game as a professional. Khalil Herbert is a UFA after the 2024 season, and there’s a chance Johnson could overtake him as the lead back next season anyway. He’ll be a strong buy for me this off-season.
Keaton Mitchell was lightning in a bottle for the Baltimore Ravens when he emerged in week nine with a 20.4-point RB5 performance. He put together a few more solid performances before missing the season’s final three games with an ACL tear against the Jaguars in week 15. Jaleel McLaughlin woke up the Broncos offense in week four with a 19.4-point RB10 performance and followed it up with 17.9 points and an RB8 finish in week five. McLaughlin’s role declined as Javonte Williams got healthier, but he showed he belongs on a football field. McLaughlin doesn’t profile as a feature back, but Williams is entering the final year of his rookie contract, so there could be more opportunities ahead.
Emari Demercado was a pleasant surprise playing in relief of James Conner. He popped up with four usable fantasy weeks this season. Chase Brown may have the most room to grow of any running back we have discussed thus far. He had several plays this season that made us stand up and take notice. His 105-yard receiving performance in week 14 against the Colts was a real eye-opener to what we could be looking at in Cincinnati, assuming the Bengals finally part ways with Joe Mixon. Even if they don’t, it’s clear Brown has more to offer at this point in their careers.
The Rest
Chris Rodriguez did his best Brian Robinson impression in limited work, but I’m not sure there’s anything more than a career backup role in store for him without injuries ahead on the depth chart. Israel Abanikanda, Deuce Vaughn, Eric Gray, and Sean Tucker didn’t see enough work for us to be confident in evaluating their rookie seasons. Hopefully, there are better days ahead. Evan Hull looked like he had potential before suffering a season-ending knee injury in the third quarter of week one, but now, with Jonathan Taylor healthy and with a new contract, it’s likely Hull’s near-term ceiling is as a change of pace back and direct backup to the starter.
Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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