2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Keaton Mitchell, RB East Carolina
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with the analysis of 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Keaton Mitchell, RB from East Carolina. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analyses right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
One of the cornerstones of a successful dynasty portfolio is a roster deep with RB talent – providing spot start opportunities, quick value spikes, and a contingency against injury risk. The 2023 rookie class offers an ample opportunity to add further RB depth to existing dynasty rosters. Adding RB depth can come in all shapes and sizes, with my preference for targeting players selected on day one or two (rounds one to three) or for late-round guys with pass-catching upside.
The latter is true of Keaton Mitchell, a late-round dart throw who has produced in the receiving game. What should the expectations be for Mitchell in dynasty? Let’s take a look…
THE STATS
Credit: Sports Reference CFB
Mitchell is a three-year junior at East Carolina, amassing 33 games, averaging over 14 carries per game, and delivering two seasons with over 20 receptions.
As a runner, his output was excellent – averaging over 90 yards per game, 25 TDs over three seasons, and a pair of 1000+ yard seasons. His efficiency, workload, and output improved every year – encouraging signs for continued development.
As a receiver, he excelled, averaging 20 receptions a season and an improvement in catches year after year. Mitchell produced an 8.7% college target share – 70th percentile, as per Player Profiler. Finishing his college career with 9.7 yards per reception indicates an explosive nature.
Mitchell was outstanding overall, the key to the offense, highlighted by a 30.7% college dominator rating (71st percentile) – a metric consisting of the total percentage of a team’s offensive yards and offensive TDs. Mitchell has had an excellent college career, with improvement in all areas, pass game usage, and solid as a TD scorer.
THE FILM
Credit: Prince Highlights
Like my previous rookie prospect profile on Dorian Thompson-Robinson, there are a couple of considerations with the Mitchell clips: this is a highlight-only video against a weaker level of competition. Comparing these clips like for like with a player such as Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs would be unwise.
The first trait which stands out in the film is the sheer explosiveness from Mitchell, with several outside runs where he makes a huge gain or takes it to the house. He also displays this trait in the receiving game and on a kick return – highlighting a versatility to add value in all phases of the game.
Also, there are several successful rushes to the outside where Mitchell, either by design or traffic in the backfield, is able to bounce it outside and make positive chunk plays. As a receiver, he displays further success in this area, taking a pass in the flat and an option route dragging across the formation – delivering explosive plays on the boundary, where he becomes a dangerous weapon.
Occasionally he shows the ability to remain patient and then change gears in exploding north-south. However, there are too many runs where Mitchell bounces outside early – a trait that he will need to clean up against quicker, faster athletes in the NFL.
Despite the tendency to do his best work on the outside, he displays the power to break arm tackles and the ability to punch his way in for the TD at the goal line. With his relatively small size, solid explosion, and success as a bullet at the goal line, Mitchell reminds me of a guy like Phillip Lindsay from his highlights.
Overall, Mitchell shows incredible explosion, work in the passing game, and versatility to land on the game-day roster. His highlights are enticing, with plenty of huge plays, with several TDs from all over the field. I can see flaws in the run style, bouncing everything to the outside, and it will be system dependent – with a preference for a pass-heavy spread-type offense.
THE MEASURABLES
Credit: RAS Football
Mitchell is a smaller-sized prospect at 5077 (five feet and eight inches tall, rounding up) and 179 pounds. A below-average bench score displays a lack of strength overall – despite his highlights showing broken arm tackles. Where Mitchell excels is explosiveness and straight-line speed, which is hugely valuable for an undersized – you don’t ever want to be small and slow. Another area of concern in the prototype is the agility scores displayed via the shuttle and 3-cone drill. There is an association where smaller athletes are expected to be fast and agile – Mitchell misses the mark on agility, providing concerns as a runner who routinely bounces plays outside, relying on cutback ability over power.
DYNASTY VALUE
Credit: DLF April 2023 Superflex Rookie Dynasty ADP – RB
Mitchell is currently going as the RB19 and has an average draft position of 47.9 – essentially the last player in a four-round, 12-team rookie draft.
He fits the archetype of a player you want to target late in rookie drafts: an RB with pass-catching upside and explosiveness to make the most of limited touches.
The big concerns for Mitchell are size, level of competition, and draft capital. While size concerns are valid, the NFL continually moves towards smaller and faster players – particularly at RB and WR. There have been successful smaller-school RBs have success in the NFL – if you’re good enough, the lack of name in the alma mater is insignificant. Mitchell looks firmly on the day three radar in the NFL Draft, which is far from ideal – but not a death sentence for his dynasty value.
Reverting to the original question in the intro, I think Mitchell is a fantastic lottery ticket in round four of rookie drafts. The expectation is low, but the upside is intriguing – I mentioned Lindsay earlier; he was an outlier, but I think with luck on the landing spot, getting Mitchell in a spread system or one that maximizes touches outside the hash marks – I genuinely believe he could end up being a steal in real life and well worthy of a dynasty roster spot or worst case scenario a taxi squad designation.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
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