Navigating the Dynasty Waiver Wire Wasteland
What a desolate wasteland. In my 20+ years of playing fantasy football, I cannot remember waivers being picked clean to the levels we’ve seen this season. Furthermore, we’ve seen multiple significant injuries so far this season, and in years past, those injuries typically create an opportunity for other players, but that hasn’t necessarily held true this year. So, how are dynasty owners supposed to keep their rosters full of valuable players? Which players can you target today for pennies on the dollar before they become tomorrow’s hot, overpriced, priority waiver pick-up? I’ll share with you some of the tools I use to help me navigate waivers when there are no obvious options in deeper leagues.
Combing the depth of in-season waivers can be a time-consuming affair, especially if you’re in multiple leagues, and even worse if you play in IDP leagues as well. For example, I’m in a 12-team league with 65-man rosters, ten taxi squad spots, and ten injured reserved spots, and many teams have every slot completely filled. It’s bananas. With the top 1,020 players already rostered, you’ve got to put in the work to uncover hidden gems on the waiver wire. Barring the most shallow of leagues, any league worth its salt is going to have all the players worth having rostered, and you’ll really have to dig to find players who can help you through the byes and hopefully help you get into the playoffs and make a championship run.
Snap Counts
Every Monday, the first fantasy-related thing I do is look at the snap counts from the previous weeks and compare them to the current week. I like the layout Football Guys uses. You can get an idea of which players are trending up (or down) just by looking at how often they’re on the field. Yes, snaps don’t always equal touches, but it’s the first tool in my toolbox. As you look at snaps, be sure to keep in mind any injuries the team suffered during the year, too. A single-week jump or dip in snaps might be game flow-dependent or matchup-based, so it’s hard to read too much into it, but once you get deeper into the season, you can start seeing multiple game trends that tell a complete story regarding player usage.
Depth Charts
You always hear people say, “Next man up,” and that is never more true than in fantasy football. Several sites have NFL depth charts, but I find Our Lads to have the most accurate and actionable charts. Scouring depth charts is the most advantageous in the preseason and early weeks when NFL teams are getting settled and solidifying their pecking order and other fantasy managers aren’t keeping up with the moves. It’s a great way to find UDFA stash options early in the year. Players like Denver’s Jaleel McLaughlin and Chicago’s Tyson Bagent likely cost fantasy GMs an absurd amount of FAAB in the last few weeks, but they were probably free or close to it eight weeks ago.
Utilization Reports
Once I go through snap counts and depth charts, I put together a preliminary list of names that I may want to target on waivers, and then I’ll look at Fantasy Life’s Utilization Report. Sure, someone might be getting on the field more, and they might have moved up the depth chart, but are they running more routes? Are they being targeted more? Are they getting catchable targets closer to the line of scrimmage (hello, PPR leagues), or are they getting less catchable passes, but their ADOT is three times higher than anyone else on their team (hello, best ball)?
I find these three tools are the best options to help you find less obvious, up-and-coming, under-the-radar waiver options. But if (and when) you need to dig deeper, I’ve got some other options for you.
Positional Dart Throws
Most teams have some sort of well-known running back committee with a clear 1-2 tandem at the position. Because of this, almost every single team, RB1, and RB2, is drafted, along with multiple RB3s. If you want to get a leg up on your competition, add RB depth before a player becomes a known commodity.
For example, Ameer Abdullah is the Raiders’ RB2 on paper, but he would likely remain their RB2 if Josh Jacobs were to get injured, so the move is to add Zamir White before anything happens to Jacobs. Yes, in a dynasty, all of the decent young players will likely be rostered already, but this applies to veteran depth, too. The Bills’ 33-year-old Latavius Murray wasn’t on many rosters to start the season, and yet, as we approach the halfway point of the fantasy regular season, he’s been a reliable RB3/flex play thus far. If you’ve got the roster space, start snatching up RB3s.
The same can be said for the receiver position. Many teams frequently run three wide receiver sets nowadays, and often, the formerly unheralded WR4 is an afterthought for fantasy GMs and can be had on the cheap. To name a few, the Browns’ David Bell, the 49ers’ Ronnie Bell, the Packers’ Dontayvion Wicks, and the Buccaneers’ Trey Palmer are all an injury away from a prominent role in their respective offenses. Again, this isn’t an article to give you specific waiver targets, as I’m mentioning known dynasty assets, but rather a guide to give you some tools to help you churn the bottom of your rosters when waivers look to be picked clean. Familiarize yourself with team depth charts and what roles receivers play. If CeeDee Lamb went down, who is Dallas’ backup slot receiver? Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks might not see an increase in targets, but KaVontae Turpin might be the big winner, and he’s likely readily available.
Quarterbacks are different from running backs and receivers. My first targets are backups to the running quarterbacks. We’ve seen multiple injuries to quarterbacks over the years, and they disproportionately affect the runners. In most deep superflex leagues, many of these players are already snatched up. However, we usually see the backup quarterback have a similar skill set as the starter, so the backups to running quarterbacks are often running quarterbacks themselves, who are then subject to injury, too. In these cases, the QB3 is in play.
The Ravens have seen Lamar Jackson miss games throughout his career. Tyler Huntley has come in as the backup, and then Huntley has also missed time, opening the door for their third-stringer to get a handful of starts over the last several seasons. In dynasty leagues – especially superflex – all young signal callers are snatched up in draft season. In single QB leagues, that isn’t always the case. Either way, lean towards the youngsters when you can. For example, as we’ve recently seen with the Las Vegas Raiders, Jimmy Garoppolo was the starter, Brian Hoyer was the backup, and fourth-round rookie Aiden O’Connell was the third-stringer. But when push came to shove, and the team was packing it in and looking to the future, O’Connell got the nod ahead of the veteran Hoyer. We’ve seen Dorian Thompson-Robinson get a start this year. Jaren Hall has gotten on the field, and Clayton Tune even got some playing time. The Saints should kick the tires on Jake Haener at some point, and if Jordan Love keeps struggling in Green Bay, why wouldn’t Sean Clifford get a few starts? And oh yeah, don’t forget, a year ago, Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant, and now he’s a fringe QB1 according to most scoring systems. You can go extraordinarily deep at the position if you’ve got the roster space and can keep your fingers crossed long enough.
Bye Week Scavenging
When bye weeks and injuries hit, dynasty managers need to fill starting spots, and oftentimes, they’ll cut players on the bye to fill a starting role. Jumping on those players can be an advantageous move. Additionally, many other managers won’t make a waiver claim on a player who is not playing during the current week. A recent example I experienced was during Tennessee’s recent bye week. In multiple redraft leagues, I saw Will Levis was available. At the time, Levis was listed behind Malik Willis and a banged-up Ryan Tannehill. I figured why not throw a dart on him, and I got him for $1 in a couple of spots. A week later, he ended up being the most added player in fantasy, but I snatched him up for nothing because he was on the bye. You’re usually competing with no one on the bye week players, and the bye weeks are when teams will start changing things up with personnel, so it’s the best time to grab sleepers.
Fantasy football can be difficult. Dynasty leagues can be even more challenging- and extremely deep dynasty leagues can be obscenely strenuous. You won’t get opportunities like the Will Levis example listed above. When waivers appear to be picked clean, it’s hard to know which player to target. I hope this helps give you some new ideas or a way to reexamine old ones as the fantasy regular draws to a close; many playoff rosters will contain savvy waiver pick-ups who now play a pivotal role in teams’ success. Other waiver pick-ups remain stashed on taxi squads and become significant contributors in future seasons. Either way, never stop churning the bottom of your rosters, no matter how deep the league. Put in a little more work than your league mates, and more often than not, you’ll reap the rewards at the end of the season.
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