IDP Improvements: Moves to Make Before Week Eight
As the midway point of the season approaches, some fantasy managers panic and grow frustrated with underperforming players. Conversely, some fail to identify players who are overperforming, confusing spikes in production with a sudden increase in talent or opportunity. These are situations you should consider taking advantage of.
Quinnen Williams, DT NYJ – TRADE FOR
Williams entered the season as the consensus dynasty DT1 after finishing second at the position with 13 sacks in 2022.
DLF Dynasty Ranking History Tool.
The 25-year-old has played six games in the current campaign and is still searching for his first sack of the year. The frustration of fantasy managers who invested draft capital in the talented interior defensive lineman is entirely understandable.
However, we see examples like this every season, and it’s time we learn from our mistakes. After seven games of the 2022 season, Javon Hargrave had one sack and finished the year with 12. Cameron Heyward had two sacks and went on to amass ten more.
Granted, for every example of a Hargrave or a Heyward, there were others who failed to build on their slow starts. Reassuringly, what Williams has in common with those who went on to improve is his underlying metrics.
Before the New York Jets’ bye last week, Williams ranked second only to Aaron Donald among all defensive tackles with 25 pressures, per Pro Football Focus. Williams’ win rate, or the frequency at which he beats blockers, ranked 12th among all DTs.
Williams hasn’t forgotten how to play; he’s been unlucky not to generate more sacks. Crucially, history shows that if he can continue to create pressure and win at a similar rate, the sacks will come. Dexter Lawrence was in a similar position before week seven, and he went off for eight pressures and three sacks last weekend.
Float a trade offer to Williams’ fantasy manager, hoping they have grown frustrated with his lack of production. Jalen Carter is narrowing the gap, but three out of four rankers still view Williams as the dynasty DT1 in the DLF IDP top 150 rankings.
Jack Campbell, LB DET – START (DEEP LEAGUES)
Seven weeks has felt like an eternity, but we’ve finally got to a point where we can start to trust Campbell. His snap share was frustratingly low through six games, but he was on the field for a season-high 90% of the defensive downs in week seven.
Campbell played more poorly than he had in previous weeks, but the entire Lions’ defense struggled to contain a red-hot Lamar Jackson, who put up 38 points on what had been, until that point, one of the better defensive units in 2023.
Jack Campbell might still be looking for this ball pic.twitter.com/hMQnIJR3Oe
— Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) October 24, 2023
The optimist in me wants to believe Campbell will not be viewed as a scapegoat, recognizing that we can begin to trust him as at least an LB3 if he continues to play a similarly significant role.
The cynic in me has to remind dynasty fantasy managers that we’ve seen similarly talented players fail to realize their potential. The jury may still be out on Zaven Collins and Jamin Davis, but Isaiah Simmons was supposed to be a superstar, and Devin Bush, Jarrad Davis, and Darron Lee were all taken within the first 20 picks in their respective drafts. This will not be what Campbell’s patient fantasy managers want to hear, but the fact that this is a dynasty-related site allows me the latitude to mention it.
Nevertheless, Campbell has the potential and the opportunity to become an every-down, productive linebacker in the league. Alex Anzalone has performed better than expected in 2023. Still, as we look ahead to next season, $7.3m seems a lot of money to pay a 29-year-old, considering the team invested the 18th overall pick in his supposed successor.
Jamin Davis, LB WAS – TRADE FOR/START
David Mayo will be a hot commodity on the fantasy waiver wire after leading the team with eight combined tackles after Cody Barton exited the Washington Commanders’ loss to the Giants with an ankle injury.
Some fantasy managers may overlook that Jamin Davis is the next man up in the pecking order, having played at least 78% of the defensive snaps in the previous four games. And in Barton’s absence last week, Davis played every down.
Davis has his faults. He has been involved in troubling off-field incidents, and Commanders’ defensive coordinator, Jack Del Rio, called him out for poor performances last year. However, the young linebacker has demonstrated signs of improvement this season:
Jamin Davis' first career INT wins it for the @Commanders ‼️ @jamindavis25 | #WASvsATL pic.twitter.com/I7la5EfTkW
— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023
It is concerning that the former first-round pick could not supplant Cole Holcomb for two years and found himself behind Cody Barton this season, but Barton is set to become a free agent after 2023. Davis now has the perfect opportunity to prove that he deserves a more significant role in Del Rio’s future plans.
Mike Danna, EDGE KC – TRADE AWAY
Danna has been surprisingly productive to start the season. The 25-year-old has recorded five sacks in seven games, equalling his season-best number in that category through only seven games.
That’s where the good news ends. Danna has produced only 19 pressures despite rushing the passer 226 times – ninth-most among all edge defenders. His 8.4% pressure rate ranks 62nd out of 77 players at the position.
Danna’s snap share last week was his second-lowest of the season following the return of the underrated Charles Omenihu. 2023 first-round rookie Felix Anudike-Uzomah will presumably challenge for a more significant role, irrespective of whether Danna’s contract is extended beyond this year or not.
Consider trading Danna while you can; his value may never be higher than it is right now. Haason Reddick is five years older than Danna, but I would immediately accept any trade similar to this:
Conclusion
You won’t be able to execute every trade decision in this article. Hopefully, you can manage at least one of them. There are other players not mentioned here you can pivot to if needed. I’ll prioritize trade suggestions in future articles over the next few weeks.
