Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week Four

Peter Howard

Do players get on the field a lot and then earn targets, or vice versa?

I try to keep this series short and sharp, and sometimes sweet, so while I’d love to pontificate or investigate this question, I can’t here and now. Here's the quick version: yes, both, all of it. Context is just another way of saying that any trend can be good or bad, it depends on the result, and we spin narratives to try and make us faithful enough to chase one side or the other.

So, let’s get to it, shall we? Here’s my walk through the deeper nooks and crannies of dynasty data and my main observations in NFL usage and regression from the first four weeks.

You can find my tables for each team in my free weekly database here.

ARI: Michael Wilson Arrives

A lot will be made of his routes this week, or his targets maybe. However, my eye is on the spread of the offense. Wilson had 17% of the targets this week, but the team passed 41 times. Also, his red zone presence is potentially weak, having had 0, 0, 0, and 2 red zone targets by week in 2023.

Simply put, Wilson has arrived as someone we need to acknowledge in fantasy football. We’ve consistently noted his ability to earn routes, his Yards Per Route Run numbers are solid on those routes, and in week four he finally earned targets efficiently, 20% TPRR, with two coming inside the red zone.

But is his top-12 finish sustainable? No. His volume is top 36 at the position, adjusting for red zone work, and he can’t catch a touchdown every time. Rondale Moore still out-routes him, as does Marquise Brown.

ATL: This is where “Kyle Pitts is more a wide receiver” gets complicated


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