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Brandon Haye: Dynasty Superflex Rookie Rankings Explained

A behind the scene look at ranking methodology and individual rookie rankings vs the consensus.

© Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

In our Dynasty Rankings Explained series, we have DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings, but also the thought process behind the list.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is than the consensus average.

This article will wrap up our series where we provide rankings for 48 dynasty rookies in a Superflex, PPR format. For a closer look at all our rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings and catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

SUPERFLEX DYNASTY ROOKIE RANKINGS: BRANDON HAYE

I have learned from mistakes in dynasty leagues when approaching the annual rookie draft. While I do think draft capital is important, it should not be the only thing we look at. Another thing I have learned is that just because a team has open spots at a position, it does not mean that the player will be successful. The prime example is Jalen Reagor in the 2020 draft. I picked him over other receivers like Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, and Michael Pittman Jr.

Since that time, I have researched rookies way more and give them my grade. It is weird since I am a data analyst and I am more of a film guy. I just don’t think analytics give a full picture. I incorporate that in my review but lean more on what I see on the tape.

I think especially in Superflex leagues that QBs should go at the top if I feel they have staying power. Then if I think RBs are difference-makers I go there. Even saying this, I am a huge hoarder of WRs, many times I go zero RBs in drafts because of this. So, in all that, I think each year it is different. I have different traits I look at before the draft and then after they have a team, I reevaluate that grade.

Rookies 1 - 12

RankAVG+ / -NamePosTeamAge
110Bijan RobinsonRBATL21
264CJ StroudQBHOU21
330Bryce YoungQBCAR22
451Jahmyr GibbsRBDET21
594Zay FlowersWRBAL22
671Jordan AddisonWRMIN21
74-3Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA21
82-6Anthony RichardsonQBIND21
98-1Quentin JohnstonWRLAC21
10155Marvin MimsWRDEN21
112918Tank DellWRHOU23
12175Sam LaPortaTEDET22

Out of the top 12 players only one matches with the consensus, and I think that is pretty unanimous with Bijan Robinson. 10 out of my top 12 players match with the consensus just in a different order. I am leery about Anthony Richardson, especially with Jonathon Taylor not being there. He will have a huge learning curve and he just has not played a lot of football. He has so much athletic ability but at Florida when he got nicked up, he would not run and that is such a big part of his game. Still, the potential means I could not put him any lower than eight.

The two players who did not make my top 12 compared to the consensus are Zach Charbonnet and Dalton Kincaid. I have been very vocal that I think Charbonnet is overrated and benefited from a great system with Chip Kelly at UCLA. I will say he looked good in preseason, but I still think Kenneth Walker is the better back. I think Kincaid is a good player, but I think he will be touchdown-dependent to be a top five tight end. I will only draft a tight end in the top 12 of a rookie draft if I think they have the potential to be elite.

The biggest movers into my top twelve are Tank Dell and Marvin Mims. Both players have looked very good in preseason and seem to be big parts of the team’s game plans moving forward.

Rookies 13 - 24

RankAVG+ / -NamePosTeamAge
132411Jayden ReedWRGB23
1410-4Dalton KincaidTEBUF23
15216Tank BigsbyRBJAC21
1614-2Kendre MillerRBNO21
1711-6Zach CharbonnetRBSEA22
1816-2Michael MayerTELV22
19201Josh DownsWRIND22
20288Cedric TillmanWRCLE23
21276Luke MusgraveTEGB22
2212-10De'Von AchaneRBMIA21
2319-4Rashee RiceWRKC22
2418-6Jonathan MingoWRCAR22

The second round is where I would feel comfortable picking the two best tight ends in my opinion. Iowa has been a tight end factory. As a Big Ten guy, I saw way too many boring Iowa games but he was the only option and still produced. He is going into a situation where he is going to be the starter in game one. Kincaid still has great upside and early in the second is where I would have him graded with the question of how he and Dawson Knox will be used.

This may get some hate but I have both Tank Bigsby and Kendre Miller over Charbonnet. I think they are better overall back and are dynamic enough to be three down backs. One of my favorite players who gained steam as people watched more of his tape, is Jayden Reed. He was just so NFL-ready when he was playing for Michigan State. If he had a better quarterback, he may have sneaked into the first round.

A couple of other players that are way higher for me than the consensus is Cedric Tillman and Luke Musgrave. I thought Tillman was a better prospect than Jalin Hyatt. His injury last year opened the door for Hyatt to get more targets. I think he could eventually take Donovan Peoples-Jones’ spot and will get run before that as well. Musgrave has been said to be getting open all the time and his athleticism will cause matchup nightmares. Aaron Rodgers is gone, so I think Green Bay will utilize the tight end more consistently.

Rookies 25 - 36

RankAVG+ / -NamePosTeamAge
2522-3Tyjae SpearsRBTEN22
2623-3Roschon JohnsonRBCHI22
2725-2Jalin HyattWRNYG21
2826-2Hendon HookerQBDET25
2913-16Will LevisQBTEN24
30300Chase BrownRBCIN23
314312Sean TuckerRBTB21
32375Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQBCLE23
3331-2Israel AbanikandaRBNYJ20
345319Brenton StrangeTEJAC22
35449Evan HullRBIND22
3632-4Luke SchoonmakerTEDAL24

So the beginning of the third round is when I take some of the running backs that could hit but I would rather be safe. People love Tyjae Spears but with his knee issues his shelf life is short and when will Derrick Henry be done in Tennessee? I am not nearly as high on Roschon Johnson but there is a possibility that he could carve out a big role in Chicago. I am a big Khalil Herbert fan and at best I see that as a 50/50 split for Johnson. With Justin Fields running, I just don’t see the upside but the third round is about dart throws.

Another player I just was never sold on was Will Levis but in the third round he is worth taking. The Titans will be moving from Tannehill soon and you always need young QBs in SF dynasty leagues. I will say I put Hendon Hooker ahead of Levis because I just think he is better but both have too many flaws for my liking.

Two players who were afterthoughts before but now are getting some hype are Sean Tucker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. I was a big fan of Tucker and the medicals really killed him. I think he could get serious play time this year and may have some staying power with Tampa Bay. Thompson-Robinson, I was always intrigued by in college but never to put it all together. I know it’s preseason but he definitely looks the part.

I may be a total homer but I think Brenton Strange could be a steal in the third round. He is in many of the two tight end plays for the Jaguars. He probably won’t get enough targets to be fantasy relevant this year but I could see Strange being the eventual replacement for Evan Engram.

Rookies 37 - 48

RankAVG+ / -NamePosTeamAge
375720AT PerryWRNO23
38391Deuce VaughnRBDAL21
39412Darnell WashingtonTEPIT22
40422Kayshon BoutteWRNE21
41509Charlie JonesWRCIN24
4235-7Zach EvansRBLAR22
43463Jake HaenerQBNO24
446117Aidan O'ConnellQBLV23
4540-5Puka NacuaWRLAR23
46548Malik CunninghamQBNE24
47558Parker WashingtonWRJAC21
4845-3Eric GrayRBNYG23

So, the fourth is for swinging for the fences. Also, it is for players that I like and want to avoid having to hope I get off waivers. So based on preseason, I think both AT Perry and Deuce Vaughn could have major roles on their teams. Vaughn could be the change of pace back to Tony Pollard and AT Perry could find his way into the top four WR rotations.

Next as a Devy guy and avid college fan, I put a few players that I saw flashes and with the right situation could become fantasy relevant. Charlie Jones was uncoverable in his one year at Purdue and was wasted earlier in his career at Iowa. Zach Evans had a weird journey in college, but he is very talented and with the rotating backfield for the Rams, he could get a chance. Kayshon Boutte is just so talented but really struggled after injury and coaching change at LSU. The Patriots need playmakers, and he could be the guy that can provide that.

I put two backup QBs in here with Jake Haener and Aidan O’Connell. These are truly stash guys but they are behind veterans and we do not know how long their tenure will be. I ended with two players that are a wait-and-see. Malik Cunningham is electric and is willing to play different positions. He is the prime example of swing for the fences if he can find a role. Parker Washington I really liked coming out of college and was surprised that he fell in the draft. Doug Pederson has mentioned he can learn from Christian Kirk. I think he could eventually replace him, so yet another stash.

Be sure to check out our complete Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings
Brandon Haye: Dynasty Superflex Rookie Rankings Explained
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