Welcome back to my series comparing rankings to ADP to try and find opportunities in our dynasty leagues.
This is the week we say goodbye – as far as the off-season series is concerned – as it’s time to start making weekly projections, looking for regression and tracking opportunity changes as the season finally arrives. It’s been fun and (I hope for you as well) informative as we’ve plunged into DLF rankings to look for potential edges.
We have just enough time to take one more dive into who, overall, DLF rankers prefer more than ADP at each position.
So, let’s get to it already.
You can find links to DLF rankings and rankers here and the current superflex ADP here.
The view from 250
Here’s how DLF and ADP compare in up to round 21 (252 players drafted, 250 players ranked) in the rate of players at each position.
Rankings are still heavily favoring the wide receiver, specifically in rounds three to seven (or rather the first 38 WR rankings are significantly higher than in ADP). Running back doesn’t really catch up until after round 21, although they are in lock step in the middle of the rankings/rounds (at least in terms of the number who are interesting).
Significant changes this off-season include DLF’s increasing interest in the tight end position after round 17 especially (tight ends rank 81 plus in consensus ranks) over the running back position.
DLF has also increasingly faded early QBs – especially after the first round or the first seven and they still only disagree on whether Justin Fields or Dak Prescott belongs in that first seven, with DLF preferring Prescott and ADP preferring Fields.
Let’s look at the top differences at each position.
Wide Receiver
There’s no need to filter the table because 14 of the first 15 players higher valued by DLF, over ADP, are all wide receivers.
The first clear tier of players DLF values more than the average drafter has changed since we started a few months ago. Notably, the addition of Treylon Burks – who is proof even a disappointing rookie season can result in position-value changes in dynasty.
This is Jaylen Waddle‘s second year in the top group in rankings and DLF in general is much less concerned with players ranking as their team’s WR2, compared to fantasy WR1s. Waddle has finished inside the top 12 in both of his NFL seasons and increased his overall production from over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie to over 1,300 as a sophomore.
Deebo Samuel ranks outside the top 20 players at the position in ADP but is still the upside player DLF is interested in the most inside the top 24. DLF ranks him inside the top 16 and that’s despite an increased price for the position in general average as running backs continue to fall.
Now, let’s consider the greatly maligned running back position.
Running Back
I really don’t understand the fascination with the end-of-career team changes in rankings this off-season. The NFL, for fantasy, is due more breakouts not career resurgences historically. Despite this DLF has Dalvin Cook, and (yet to find a team) Kareem Hunt still on the “worth a top 100 dynasty roster spot” list.
To be clear, ADP has not had a chance to adjust since the latest… lack of news on Jonathan Taylor, or the recent trade rumors with Green Bay, whereas rankings have. Yet, DLF continues to hold him as a top-three running back. Here is the list of players ADP prefers to Taylor right now (DLF prefers Taylor to these players):
- Austin Ekeler, RB2
- Saquon Barkley, RB4
- Jahmyr Gibbs, RB5
- Breece Hall, RB6
For my part, I only have Breece Hall and Saquon Barkley over him in my own rankings.
Aaron Jones and D’Andre Swift are two of the most common names we have seen on this list of players, and DLF prefers them a lot more than ADP.
Tight End
So, what can we see on DLF’s position of choice outside of round 17?
Pat Freiermuth and David Njoku continue to be the only top 12 players at the position that DLF is interested in trading for.
Personally, I’ve traded for as much Freiermuth as my dynasty leagues can hold already, so I won’t be able to take advantage of that anymore. 100% of rankers have him ranked close to his consensus ranking here, whereas only 77% have David Njoku close to TE10 – a similar percentage of rankers prefer Jake Ferguson.
Dalton Schultz stands out to me as a relatively inexpensive player who both rankings and DLF agree should be valued inside the top 20, but DLF has more interest in holding him inside the top 15 at the position.
Quarterback
DLF has strongly shunned the increase in ADP at the quarterback position of late, and it leaves only five players with even marginal value difference right before the start of 2023.
Joe Burrow is on the list because DLF prefers him to Justin Herbert, whereas ADP prefers Herbert to Burrow. I stand with ADP on this issue.
Dak Prescott continues to be the most striking name to me. DLF ranks him well inside the top 12 instead of on the fringes of the QB1s. That’s with 77% consensus among the rankers.
Trevor Lawrence is also ranked above Justin Fields, and all but one DLF ranker agrees. I’ll let you discover who on your own. (It’s not me, by the way.)
Anyway, that’s it’s, that’s all the time we must look for advantages DLF ranks offer us in dynasty…for this series at least. I’ve uploaded the final table in its entirety just in case you have any more questions about how DLF rankings compared to ADP right now.
Once again, I hope you were able to take something away from it and managed some great trades that will pay off this season because of the hard work of the DLF crew.
For now, we’ll have to leave it here and revisit it after the season. Good luck, and thanks for checking this series out!
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week Two - September 23, 2023
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week One - September 16, 2023
- Running Back Breakout Trends for 2023 - September 7, 2023
