August Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Quarterbacks
It is time to take a look at startup ADP risers and fallers for the quarterback position. Here we will examine which signal callers are on the move, ADP-wise, in single quarterback leagues from July to August.
Keep in mind the ADP can vary considerably from single quarterback to super flex or two-quarterback formats. For the most recent and complete ADP data, click here.
INTRODUCTION
The quarterback position, especially in single QB formats, is less volatile than the running back and wide receiver positions. Still, there is movement, and it is worth continuing to track for startup draft purposes and any shifts in value among the position.
Let’s dig in and see what has changed over the last month.
QUARTERBACKS
Here is the current visualization of where quarterbacks are going, per the July ADP.
RISERS
Kenny Pickett, PIT (166.67) +10.16
Was it an impressive rookie season for Kenny Pickett? Unless you consider a touchdown percentage of 1.8% versus an interception rate of 2.3%, impressive…well…no.
Allow us to skip the small talk. Pickett had two games of three interceptions against zero games of more than one passing touchdown.
However, as a rookie, it remains difficult to gauge the entirety of a player’s career based on their introduction to the big leagues. The question becomes, can this young signal-caller show some growth under center? Can he take a step forward?
According to the limited preseason action that has been on display and the corresponding rise in ADP, the general consensus is yes, he can. A little.
Pickett moves up 10 spots and climbs from QB24 to QB20. He represents a bye-week bench option with some upside based on the weapons around him.
Brock Purdy, SF (169.83) +8.34
Savvy dynasty managers were already taking their shot on Brock Purdy in the 14-ish round of their drafts. Operating as the converse to Pickett, all Purdy did was throw for multiple touchdowns per game during his starting run. From week 12 to week 17, Purdy threw two touchdown passes in every game but one, in which he threw three.
Purdy also has the benefit of an impressive cast of skill players around him and an offense that accentuates those players’ ability to make big plays.
Purdy has long been expected to be named the starter heading into the season and the continued silent confirmation has led to a small rise in ADP. He is on the QB2 level with both streaming and bye-week intrigue.
Justin Fields, CHI (58.83) +6.84
So you spent the first four rounds of your startup selecting wide receivers and running backs. While there are still tantalizing options at both positions and a few tight ends lurking about, maybe it is time to start evaluating the quarterback position.
May I present to you Justin Skyler Fields.
Fields led all quarterbacks in rushing yards (1,143) last season. In fact, he had more rushing yards than Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne, and a pile of other running backs.
Three total quarterbacks have eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing threshold. Michael Vick, Lamar Jackson (twice), and Justin Fields.
While I am not suggesting that Fields repeats this feat, he was known as a great passer at Ohio State, and has publicly stated that he is going to be the Bears’ first 4,000-yard passer. We have yet to see that facet of his game truly unlocked.
Over the last few seasons, we have seen quarterbacks benefit from the addition of a high-level wide receiver. Josh Allen cranked it to 11 when Stefon Diggs landed in Buffalo. Jalen Hurts leveled up when A.J. Brown started devouring Philly cheese steaks. And now, D.J. Moore has landed in the windy city.
Fields represents both a safe floor due to his rushing ability and the potential of a higher ceiling if he takes a step forward as a passer, despite the low passing volume on display last season.
Based on his incremental rise in ADP, dynast managers are taking the shot on his ceiling.
OTHER RISERS
Justin Herbert, LAC (47.33) +7.84
As it turns out, playing with broken rib cartilage is not ideal for living up to a QB3 redraft ranking. The newly minted highest-paid quarterback in history is looking to pay dividends to those who already had him and reward those who are currently drafting him.
With Kellen Moore stepping in as the new offensive coordinator, a healthy offensive line, and a shiny new toy in Quentin Johnston, Herbert, despite the rise in cost, may be one of the better values on the board.
Daniel Jones, NYG (115.33) +5.84
Even with a depleted receiving room, Brian Daboll squeezed fantasy points out of Daniel Jones in his first year at the offensive helm. Jones finished as QB9 despite throwing only 15 touchdowns during the 2022 season.
During the offseason, the Giants treated slot receivers like Pokemon and pursued their quest of capturing them all. Oh, and they added a premiere tight end talent in Darren Waller. Then, for good measure, they drafted a vertical threat in Jalin Hyatt to complement Darius Slayton.
Say what you will about the Giants, but they have built around Daniel Jones and seemed to hone in on what he does best.
Jones is going as the QB14 in startup drafts and on top of having an array of receiving options around him, still offers upside with his legs.
FALLERS
Dak Prescott, DAL (101.17) -15.34
If Dak Prescott had only been dealing with injuries, his ADP might not have continued to buoy. However, his QB18 finish last season was mired with a career-high 15 interceptions. Full disclosure, a broken thumb sustained in week one may have had something to do with the accuracy struggles.
Despite the addition of Brandin Cooks and what many hope to be a healthy Michael Gallup, Prescott fell 15 spots overall in ADP this last month. While he still retains his QB11 positional rank, managers are passing on Prescott for over a full round in lieu of other skill positions compared to last month’s data.
Jordan Love, GB (170.5) -17.83
There have been positive reports out of camp about the new-look Packers offense. Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and even rookie tight end Luke Musgrave have all had hype for their roles in the passing attack.
Yet, it has not led to much other than bouncing between QB19 and QB23 over the last month. This is not necessarily an indictment on Love or his potential to not only lead this offense but also produce for fantasy football. What it seems to be is dynasty managers adopting a wait-and-see approach to valuation.
Currently, Love seems more like a QB2 dart throw for most dynasty managers. For managers operating in multiple leagues, he is one I do not mind having some exposure to in case he hits.
Trey Lance, SF (208.33) -38.83
The Trey Lance party has ended with a whimper. Just when Lance had the chance to prove it as a starter, injury derailed his season. Enter Brock Purdy from stage left, whom we covered just a few paragraphs earlier, and did enough to warrant the starting job waiting on him as he returns from elbow surgery.
Recently, Sam Darnold was named the backup quarterback in San Francisco, leaving Lance as the odd man out and most likely listed on the NFL’s Facebook Marketplace.
The best thing that can happen for Lance moving forward is a new team to call home and a new opportunity to prove he can play at this level. Something no one really knows at this point.
Dynasty managers who invested or traded to acquire, it is best to hold for now and see what develops. There is not enough trade value to warrant an attempt to sell. Wait it out if the bench space is available.
OTHER FALLERS
Sam Howell, WAS (216.5) -13.67
The current expectation is for Sam Howell’s ADP to come up a handful of spots. He has been named the starter and looked capable and athletic during some preseason action.
However, between July and August, Howell fell from two spots above Will Levis to one spot below at QB28.
Kirk Cousins, MIN (152.17) -13.34
Yes, Kirk Cousins is kind of a dork and not everyone’s particular cup of tea. That’s understood at this point. However, Cousins has finished as a QB1 in seven of the previous eight seasons. In the one season, he fell outside that range, he was QB18, so still a viable QB2.
Is he going to choke in prime-time, must-win matchups? Yeah, very probable. But, is he going to throw right around 30 touchdowns a season? Also yes, very probable. Is he tied to arguably one of the best, if not the best wide receivers in fantasy football? Also, yes.
His current ADP price tag of QB18 is already a value, he at least makes for a reliable, consistent QB2 for managers who chased upside at the position or in the case of injury.
Russell Wilson, DEN (178.5) -17.33
Russell Wilson not only annoyed the football community with his cheesy commercials and laughable catchphrases last season, but he was also one of the bigger disappointments based on expectation.
His ADP briefly rose to QB20 after Sean Payton landed in Mile High, but has since dipped over a full round. Positionally speaking, he is now going off the board as QB24.
Wilson managers are better off holding than trying to sell at a deflated cost. It may be worth seeing if Payton can correct the course for Wilson and he has an offense with enough weapons to improve on last season’s dumpster fire.
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
For visualization purposes, here are the top 30 quarterbacks based on August ADP and their respective movement.
While the quarterback position remains less volatile when compared to wide receivers and running backs, noting the trends can be helpful in assessing broad-range value as well as positional value.
Moving forward, expect some changes to quarterbacks whose situations have been altered, such as Brock Purdy/Trey Lance. Sam Howell is another that may be due for an incremental bump up. In contrast, players like Matthew Stafford, Mac Jones, and Ryan Tannehill seem to have something to prove to their respective managers.
- January Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers - February 4, 2025
- August Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers - August 27, 2024
- July Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers - July 31, 2024
