Tim Riordan: Dynasty Superflex Rookie Rankings Explained

Earlier this year, we introduced a new series, called Dynasty Rankings Explained, where DLF rankers not only explained their dynasty fantasy football rankings, and included a number of the 2023 rookie draft pick selections so you could see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft. Now that we are well past the NFL Draft and looking forward to the NFL Season starting, we decided to bring it back, this time focusing on our dynasty rookie rankings.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is than the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 48 dynasty rookies in a Superflex, PPR format. For a closer look at all our rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings and catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

SUPERFLEX DYNASTY ROOKIE RANKINGS: TIM RIORDAN

Now that training camp has started around the NFL, we have the benefit of adjusting our rookie rankings based on camp hype and storylines. Obviously, these are dynasty rankings, so the impact of rookie training camp shouldn’t be massive, but we did see Romeo Doubs and Dameon Pierce fly up rookie rankings last year thanks to outstanding training camp performances.

My rankings do not depend much on analytics or numbers. I focus mostly on draft capital and team context. I also watch a great deal of film, research the players on my own, and listen to people I trust when it comes to analyzing rookies.

Superflex rookie drafts are my favorite drafts because of the valuation of quarterbacks. It adds a whole new wrinkle into the draft day strategy, and sometimes allows for some outstanding values to fall into the second round. This year is no different as a third of the first round picks in most superflex drafts will be quarterbacks. Meanwhile, there are two running backs, four wide receivers and a tight end that you could argue should be drafted before any of the quarterbacks. It’s an interesting year for the rookies, let’s dive into those rankings!

Rookies 1 - 12

In my time playing fantasy football, I don’t think there has been as obvious a number one rookie pick as Bijan Robinson. He should go number one in every single draft, regardless of format, team context, or even most trade offers. Draft Bijan and you can plug him into your lineup week one.

Next up comes the group of quarterbacks. I have ordered them differently than most people would, with Bryce Young leading the way, followed by CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson. There are several reasons why I have Richardson as the quarterback three in these rankings. First are bad vibes from Colts camp. Things have not been going well in Indianapolis since the start of camp. Jim Irsay is jeopardizing the team’s success on X and Jonathan Taylor has requested a trade. One thing that makes a running quarterback succeed is a good running back, and if something risks Jonathan Taylor’s future with the team, that has to be a ding on Anthony Richardson’s value. Furthermore, I’m loving the vibes for Bryce Young in Carolina. They came out right away and named him the starter. Reviews have been nothing but glowing for Young.

The second problem for Anthony Richardson is the format. In superflex and two quarterback leagues, I play the quarterback position much safer than I would in one quarterback leagues. Getting a quarterback pick wrong in superflex is devastating to your team, and can push your plan back a whole year, or even more. You need to get your early first round pick in superflex right when you’re picking a quarterback. Bryce Young and CJ Stroud may not have the ceiling that Richardson has, but you know that you can rely on them to be at least QB2’s on your team for several years to come. Richardson’s ceiling is massive, and it could be league-winning, but if he struggles to make it as an NFL passer, just like he struggled to make it as an SEC passer last year, then your dynasty squad will be in big trouble.

After the quarterbacks comes Jahmyr Gibbs and a run on wide receivers. Gibbs and Smith-Njigba are almost interchangeable to me, but the landing spot for Smith-Njigba makes him more of a rebuilding pick than a win-now pick. Zay Flowers has received glowing reports from Ravens’ off-season workouts, and it sounds like they are going to let Lamar Jackson throw the ball all over the field. That’s why Zay Flowers moved up ahead of Quentin Johnston.

Dalton Kincaid, Kendre Miller and Devon Achane wrap up the top 12. Kincaid has the chance to be an absolute stud at the tight end position for years to come with his ability to line up all over the field for the Bills. He is very deserving of a top-ten rookie pick.

Rookies 13 - 24

There are some second round picks that I have very high hopes for in this rookie class, leading to some large jumps in rankings over the ADP. Marvin Mims, Sam LaPorta, Roschon Johnson, Jayden Reed, and Luke Musgrave are all ranked several spots over their ADP. Mims is already dealing with an injury, which is really unfortunate, but I trust what I see on tape and believe he could be one of the best wide receivers in this class. I love that Sean Payton used his first pick in Denver to get Marvin Mims to pair up with Russell Wilson. His career isn’t off to the best start, but there’s plenty of room to grow.

Sam LaPorta may be getting more off-season hype than any of the other rookies in this class. The Lions are desperate for pass-catchers, thanks to Jameson Williams’ injury and suspension, so LaPorta could see the ball early and often in Detroit.

Roschon Johnson has been in Bijan Robinson’s shadow for years, and now he is in Khalil Herbert’s. Herbert is no Bijan Robinson. Johnson is a large, patient runner who runs with toughness and physicality. He could be the perfect early down back for the Bears, who need to lean on the running game with Justin Fields as their quarterback.

The pair of Packers I listed above, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave, are both extremely talented players going to a team that desperately needs an influx of pass-catchers. Christian Watson had an explosive rookie year and Romeo Doubs showed well, but Jordan Love needs more help than just those two. Musgrave is a massive target with outstanding athleticism. He was one of my favorite players to scout in this pre-draft process. Jayden Reed impressed at the Senior Bowl and his versatility shined through on tape. While he wasn’t my favorite study, he earns a second round pick with his situation, draft capital, and run after the catch ability.

Zach Charbonnet fell down a few spots to 16 overall thanks to the injury that popped up this past weekend that will keep him out indefinitely. He needed a good camp to steal touches away from Kenneth Walker, but this shoulder will keep him off the field for now.

Rookies 25 - 36

Tank Dell and Michael Wilson are two of my favorite third round picks in superflex drafts, so they move up my rankings compared to my ADP. Dell is a tiny player, but his motor is off the charts and his attitude and work ethic will make him a coach and quarterback’s favorite player. That is already evident with Stroud reportedly suggesting the Texans draft Dell after they selected him. The path to fantasy production isn’t an easy one, thanks to his size, but he is a great third round pick in this format.

With DeAndre Hopkins out in Arizona, there is a huge hole for someone to step up as a pass catcher for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Hollywood Brown will lead the way, and Rondale Moore could step up from the slot, but Michael Wilson is the only big-bodied wide receiver that the Cardinals have on this team. He’s 6’2” and has the speed to win on the outside. He’s much more like DeAndre Hopkins than either Brown or Moore are, and could slide into that role as a starting outside receiver for this team right away.

There are three Tennessee Volunteers in this range who each moved down three spots in these rankings from their ADP, Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt, and Cedric Tillman. While I don’t necessarily hate the value of any of these players, I moved up some players above them that I liked more, pushing them down the board. Hooker in particular concerns me, so I wouldn’t use a second round pick on him. Strike one: his injury, which will keep him off the field for most of his rookie season. Strike two: his age, which will put him at 26 years old when he takes his first training camp snap. Strike three: his landing spot. I believe in Jared Goff and I don’t believe the Lions drafted Hooker to take Goff’s job. I believe Goff will play out the two years he has on his contract as the Lions starter, and could even earn another contract after that. Three strikes for Hooker, and he is out for me.

Moving a bit deeper into the third round, we have Eric Gray ranked six spots above his ADP. This ranking was even higher before Saquon Barkley signed his contract with the Giants. I like Gray’s talent a lot, and in New York, he could be Saquon’s primary backup as early as this season.

Rookies 37 - 48

The fourth round of rookie drafts are all dart throws at this point, but there are some players who are landing a bit closer to the bullseye than others. One of the shocks of the NFL Draft was seeing Sean Tucker go undrafted. Reports came out about injury issues, but he is healthy and on the field for Buccaneers training camp. It is an outstanding situation for a late-round or undrafted rookie to make some noise right off the bat. I really like Rachaad White for this year and the future, but he had a horrible rookie season running the ball. He will not be able to handle a full workload and be a bell cow back, someone has to split that backfield with him. Todd Bowles said he’s “throwing him right in there,” in camp. “He’s got just as good of an opportunity as anybody over there.”

Kayshon Boutte has already been a target of the New England media early in his Patriots tenure. He reportedly struggled in the offseason program and there’s even video out there of Bill O’Brien yelling at Boutte during a training session. He’s reportedly at risk of not making the team his rookie season. The Patriots have a bad history of drafting wide receivers, and Boutte could be another draft-day mistake by Bill Belichick.

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Tim Riordan

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Tim has spent over a decade in sports radio as a host, analyst, play-by-play broadcaster and a producer. He’s been called the Tom Brady of dynasty commissioners and an expert of player values.

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