Dynasty League Football


Campus to Canton Series: Which Players Hit in the NFL?

How often do the top college recruits actually hit as fantasy stars in the NFL?

Bijan Robinson

Here at DLF, we strive to evolve and grow with the game of dynasty fantasy football. In that spirit, we have started a new article series, introducing the latest dynasty craze – Campus to Canton leagues. My goal is to start by focusing on the basics while establishing an understanding of how everything works. As we progress through the series, I aim to dive into strategies, player values, buys and sells, and more! If you’re new to C2C and missed the earlier parts of the series, make sure to go back and check them out, starting with part one.

Welcome back! If you’ve been keeping up with this series, you know that we’ve been focused on freshmen hit rates for the past couple of articles. Along the way, we’ve gained some insight into increasing our odds of hitting on a freshman player, but I felt like there’s still more to learn. While the previous articles focused on the recruits themselves, this time we’re turning our attention to the NFL. What better way to figure out who hits in the NFL, than by looking at who has hit in the NFL?

In order to do that, I utilized @FF_Spaceman’s NFL Database, which can be found on his Patreon account. I only took players who have had a top-24 fantasy football season in the past seven years. From that group of players, I narrowed it down to players who were drafted in or after the 2016 season, so we can look at the same time frame as the last article (2013 recruit class=2016 draft class). What we are left with is 128 players who have had at least a top-24 fantasy season, since being drafted. 77 of those 128 hit a top-12 and 42 hit a top-five season.

Gain Instant Access to this content and so much more.
A full year of DLF Premium access is only $49.99.
Try DLF Premium for only $9.99 with a Monthly Subscription.
Or better yet, get a DLF Annual Membership for FREE! Find out how
Premium membership provides access to all of our awesome dynasty content. No confusing plans, no shell games, just everything you need with one simple subscription.
  • The best dynasty rankings in the industry
  • Dynasty, Rookie & Superflex ADP
  • Dynasty Trade Analyzer and other awesome tools
  • Our annual Dynasty & Rookie Draft Guides
  • 365 days of content, tools, advice and support
  • And so much more!
Want more information about DLF Premium? Find out more
Have questions or need some help? Contact Us
Already a DLF Premium Member? Log in now

Campus to Canton Series: Which Players Hit in the NFL?
5 2 votes
Article Rating
Notify of
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Chris Mertz
2 months ago

Isn’t it essential to also consider the pool size for 5-star, 4-star, and 3-star players, as well, when making these types of comparisons? I see no accounting for the discrepancy in sample sizes of each grouping. Each year, there are roughly 30 5-star players, yet another 300-ish 4-star players, and then literally thousands of 3-star and below players. Isn’t it simply a matter of disproportionate mathematics that lead to a higher percentage of hit rates for those players if you are merely looking at players that have had a top-24 fantasy season and not accounting for the pool of players from which they originated? I guess I just don’t think it is particularly surprising that out of a group of thousands of players that you have more hits than you do from a group of 300 or 30.

Recruiting and player ranking is an inexact science, especially because it involves 18-year old kids, all from different backgrounds, with different work ethics, different situations, and different goals. This is especially true for positions like offensive and defensive line, where most kids get by early in middle and high school by simply being bigger than everyone else. At those positions, technique, nutrition, weight training, and development happen much later and projecting that in recruiting is so difficult. Other kids simply get overlooked because of where they come from, their economic status, and their opportunity for exposure by participating in skills camps and 7v7 events. The internet has made visibility less of a hurdle, but there are still hundreds of “diamonds in the rough” out there that go unnoticed every year. It’s how guys like Justin Jefferson, Josh Allen, and Austin Ekeler come out of nowhere and become all-pros.

Players are going to both wash out and rise to success across all levels, but when one group of those players is so disproportionately larger than the other two, I’m not sure you can accurately make a comparison on their hit rates without accounting for the discrepancy in their initial size.

To Top