The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
SITUATION
Name: Rashee Rice
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Kansas City Chiefs
College Team: Southern Methodist University
Draft Status: Round two, 55th overall
Rashee Rice is a fourth-year WR prospect from the American Athletic Conference who failed to break out until his senior season. Rice was off most dynasty managers’ radars until he was drafted in the second round by the Kansas City Chiefs. Now the question has become, which do we trust more, the talent or the situation?
TALENT
Rashee Rice Combine Results:
Height: 6′ 1″
Weight: 204 lbs
Arm: 32 ¾ “
Hand: 9 ½ ”
40-Yard Dash: 4.51 Seconds
10-Yard Split: 1.49 Seconds
Vertical Jump: 41″
Broad Jump: 10′ 8″
It’s difficult to trust the talent of Rashee Rice, as he never did anything truly special while playing for a small school program in college. While his 40-yard dash time is relatively average, Rice’s vertical and broad-jump metrics are near-elite. Rice has the ideal size for the position.
Looking at the film, the burst doesn’t show up much, and we see a lack of separation in quite a few plays. That lack of separation likely explains why Rice didn’t surpass 700 receiving yards in a season until his senior year, despite his QBs averaging 3,551 passing yards per season in 2019-2021.
While Rice finally broke out in his senior year, it was likely due to Danny Gray and Reggie Roberson moving into the NFL. Both players had similar or greater production than Rice in 2021, so I believe that explains more about the boost in production than a considerable step-up in play by Rashee. Adding to the list of concerns for Rice, Gray, and Roberson struggled to see the field as NFL rookies in 2022.
OPPORTUNITY
Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart:
Data courtesy of 4for4.com
The opportunity section is where we can actually get a little excited about Rice. Being drafted by the Chiefs in the second round of the NFL Draft, Rice has ample opportunity for early playing time. 4for4.com has thrown at least a little cold water on the fire by placing Rice third on the WR depth chart, but it won’t take much to pass the two players ahead of him, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney. If Rice can carve out a role in this offense early on, his value could easily prove to be worth rookie draft investments. The Chiefs receiving corp is nothing if not wide open.
Although it is possible for Rice to beat out the rest of the wide receivers on the team, it will be tough for him to become the number-one receiving option anytime soon without a step-back in play or an injury to Travis Kelce. Without predicting an injury, it’s safe to assume that Rice will, at best, be the number two option in 2023.
RISK
Data courtesy of Sports Reference
While Rice has a great opportunity ahead of him, his lack of college production at a small-school college program makes him unlikely to succeed, especially early on in his NFL career. Add in the possibility of Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and even Justyn Ross taking a step forward in year two (year three for Toney), and the odds of a rookie-year breakout seem less and less likely.
Another knock on Rice is that Andy Reid’s system is considered one of the more challenging to learn, and the best rookie WR production from that system in the past decade was Tyreek Hill, with 593 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
MARKET
Courtesy of May DLF SF Rookie ADP
Rice is being drafted as the WR7 in the class, ahead of better WR prospects like Marvin Mims and Jayden Reed. Sam LaPorta and Roschon Johnson also offer upside and opportunity at other positions, which leads me to believe that Rashee Rice is being over-drafted by managers in rookie drafts.
Courtesy of DLF’s Trade Analyzer
The trade analyzer seems to agree with my valuation of Rice because it shows his teammate Kadarius Toney and the 2023 2.07 rookie pick as substantially more valuable.
Rashee Rice is a risky prospect who will likely take time to earn a role in the NFL, but because of his landing spot, he is on dynasty manager’s radars. The best advice I can give you is to let someone else draft him in your rookie drafts since there are still quite a few quality prospects going after him.
If you got caught up in the hype and already drafted him (it’s ok, we’ve all been there), there’s still time to pair Rice with another player or pick to move up to a safer prospect or veteran player. When in doubt, remember that it’s best to value talent over the situation, and you’ll usually come out on top!
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Understandable to be cautious of prospects like this from small schools, but it really feels like a lot is missing from this analysis. Contrary to this article, the previous receivers from SMU (gray and robberson), actually never came close to rices production, having never topped 800yds to rices 1300. It also fails to mention the exciting parts of rices skillet. He pairs elite athleticism with excellent ball skills, and was one of the most effective receivers on deep balls and contested catches this past year. Better yet, he also displayed an excellent ability to force missed tackles and generate yards after the catch from screens. He worked all over the field. I don’t think we should be undercutting him this much, and while concerns exist about his late breakout and competition, there is far more to his profile than this article would have you believe.
One thing missing from this analysis is that Rice broke his toe in his third game against Maryland and played the rest of the season on a broken toe (and ran his 40 on one).
Before he did that he was up against a first and second round DB on Maryland and absolutely roasted them for 13 catches and 195 yards.
His 40 time is also suspect, as is Hyatt and Addison. PFF suggested it had to do with the laser. In any case, the rumor is he ran in the 4.4s for the Chiefs and since he was part of that Mahomes practice thing down in Texas they saw him first-hand post foot healing.
I could be wrong but I think the Chiefs got a steal. He does things Skyy Moore can’t do and I LIKE Skyy Moore.
