2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Devon Achane

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.

SITUATION

Name: Devon Achane

Position: Running Back

Pro Team: Miami Dolphins

College Team: Texas A&M

Draft Status: Round three, Pick 84 overall.

Each year, dynasty managers get excited about certain rookie players landing in the “perfect situation” before the NFL Draft. This year was no exception, as we all dreamt of Zach Charbonnet getting a workhorse role somewhere and Josh Downs being drafted into a pass-heavy system. Unfortunately, these NFL teams have different ideas. Now we have Charbonnet in a possible 50/50 split with another quality RB, while Josh Downs is on a rebuilding team with an inaccurate, rushing QB, who also happens to be a rookie. Those are just two examples of what happens each year, but every once in a while, the fantasy gods smile down upon us, giving managers the perfect landing spot.

In 2023, that perfect situation was Devon Achane being drafted by the Miami Dolphins. Throughout the offseason, speculation abounded that Miami would bring in a veteran workhorse running back, with Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Leonard Fournette all as rumored additions. Despite those rumors, no one was ever added to the backfield, as Miami re-signed most of its 2022 running back corp. While there is definitely competition for touches, that competition isn’t what it could have been with a more proven back. What really makes it the perfect landing spot is Achane’s fit into Mike McDaniel’s “wide-zone” rushing scheme, which utilizes speed and burst to break off big plays.

As perfect as the landing spot is, it doesn’t answer every question we have for Devon Achane, so let’s dive in and see what we find out!

TALENT

Devon Achane Combine Results:

Height: 5′ 8″

Weight: 188 lbs

Arm: 29″

Hand: 8 1/2″

40-Yard Dash: 4.32 seconds

10-Yard Split: 1.51 seconds

Vertical Jump: 33″

Broad Jump: Did Not Participate

3-Cone Drill: Did Not Participate

20-Yard Shuttle: Did Not Participate

Bench Press: Did Not Participate

Achane’s speed is apparent, running a 4.32 40-yard dash with a 1.51 10-yard split, but so is his lack of size. While he averaged 23.2 touches per game in his junior season at Texas A&M, we still have to wonder if an NFL team will commit to giving such a small player that same role.

Achane has proven his talent in college, rushing for over 2000 yards in the past two seasons while adding another 457 receiving yards during that span. I believe the true question will be what opportunity will he be given in the NFL.

OPPORTUNITY

Data courtesy of 4for4.com

4for4 already shows Achane atop Miami’s depth chart, and I tend to agree. While I don’t think Achane will completely usurp Mostert and Wilson, I see him being the touch leader by the end of the season.

It could be a slow start to the season, with the Dolphins working on getting Achane up-to-speed at all things NFL, especially pass-blocking, but talent wins out in the end. I expect Achane to be the official starter by at least mid-season and keep that job, assuming health. Raheem Mostert is 31 years old, and last season was the first time he was healthy enough to play more than eight games in a season since 2019. Jeff Wilson is a younger veteran, at 27 years old, but has never proven to be much more than a solid backup, with little receiving production.

Achane will likely never be a “workhorse” running back, but if he can consistently get 15-18 touches weekly, he could easily be a top 12 RB because of Miami’s zone system.

RISK

Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

In the chart below, of all players 190 lbs or less drafted by the NFL since 2007, we don’t see too many hits. Funny enough, one of the players closest to Achane’s weight is Raheem Mostert. Mostert has only played 16 games twice in his eight-season career and has struggled to stay healthy. Philip Lindsay had two quality NFL seasons to start his career but also struggled to remain on the field. The only true long-term success story from this list is Darren Sproles, but while Sproles was an outlier size-wise, his BMI dwarfs Achanes, so it’s possible he was better built for the game. Sproles was also primarily used in the passing game, which could have added to his longevity.

Courtesy of FF_Spaceman’s Raw Database

Unfortunately, we don’t see many sub-190-pound running backs with substantial NFL careers. While there are already reports of Achane being closer to 195 lbs in rookie mini-camp, I’m not sure that a slight uptick will be enough to guarantee success. While I love the prospects of Devon Achane, we’re hoping for more of an outlier situation.

MARKET

Courtesy of DLF’s Rookie SF ADP

Achane’s great landing spot and exciting speed have pushed him all the way into the late first round of rookie drafts, becoming the RB3 for 2023. In the drafts that I’ve been involved in, I have yet to see him fall beyond 2.05 and RB5. There are obvious question marks about Achane, but the other RBs being drafted around him(Charbonnet and Miller) also have problems that are tough to ignore. In my personal rankings, I still have both of those players ahead of Achane, but I understand the desire for the upside.

Courtesy of DLF’s Dynasty Trade Analyzer

I’m afraid I honestly have to disagree with Achane’s trade value in the DLF trade calculator. Unfortunately, there haven’t been too many actual trades made with Achane involved to get an idea of his value. If this is actually how he is being valued, I would take Achane over every single player on the “suggested players” list and would trade any of those “suggested picks” for him. I think that Achane is closer to a late-first valuation than a mid-second.

Devon Achane is an exciting player that fell into the perfect situation. If it weren’t for his size, we wouldn’t be talking about a late-first to mid-second type pick. Unfortunately, we can’t completely dismiss the risk, but the player’s upside is worth the investment at those costs if you end up drafting or trading for Achane.

Keep in mind what we learned from FF_Spaceman’s database. We can likely assume that even if Achane hits, he could have a shorter career or at least miss quite a few games. It may be best to hope for an increase in value in year one and then take advantage of that boon by trading for another player with a less volatile profile.

2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Devon Achane