2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Marvin Mims

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.

SITUATION

Name: Marvin Mims

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: Denver Broncos

College Team: Oklahoma

Draft Status: Round two, 63 overall

After a frustrating season, the Denver Broncos decided to get Russell Wilson a new ingredient for him to cook with. The former Sooner wide receiver will use his incredible speed to help clear things out for Jerry Jeudy and the rest of the wide receivers on the depth chart. During his three-year collegiate career, he had a 16.7 average depth of target while also averaging 19.5 yards per reception. This Broncos offense needs his ability to get downfield and make plays happen.

Many people were in love with Mims’ talent going into the draft. He has a good production profile, along with top-tier athleticism. The main question with him was where he would go in the draft. With him being a smaller wide receiver, Mims needed to go to the right situation for him to provide optimal fantasy results.

The 2023 wide receiver class was weak, making the odds of him falling deep into day three almost impossible. The fact that the Broncos got him in the latter part of the second round is a testament to how badly they wanted him.

TALENT

Marvin Mims Combine Results:

Height: 5’11’’

Weight: 183 pounds

Arm: 31 5/8’’

Hand: 9’’

40-Yard Dash: 4.38 seconds

10-Yard Split: 1.55 seconds

Vertical Jump: 39.5’’

Broad Jump: 10’9’’

Three Cone: 6.9 seconds

Courtesy of Mockdraftable

Mims said at the NFL Combine that he should be in the discussion as one of the top wide receivers in this year’s draft class. He posed an impressive 4.38 40-yard dash, ranking in the 90^th percentile among wide receiver prospects. He also jumped out of the building with a 39 ½’’ vertical, which ranks in the 89^th percentile.

His numbers from the combine indicate that he is more than athletic enough to compete at the NFL level. His size is the only thing in his athletic profile that could hold him back. His height, weight, and arm length all rank below the 50^th percentile. There’s a chance that his size could limit his ability to hit his upside. Not many productive wide receivers are listed around his height or weight, making him an outlier if he delivers top-tier productions.

OPPORTUNITY

Courtesy of 4for4

There’s a lot of opportunity inside the ambiguity in the Broncos’ passing game. Courtland Sutton is 28 years old and has often been injured throughout his career. He also has an out due to a dead cap after the 2023 season. Tim Patrick is coming back from an ACL injury and turns 30 years old in November. He also has an out on his contract at the end of the 2023 season. KJ Hamler has dealt with injuries throughout his career and has caught just 42 passes in three seasons.

Sean Payton is the new head coach, and he is walking into an offense that struggled last year. He knows things need to improve, and the best thing to do if there’s not an immediate uptick in production from last year is to start allowing the younger players to get opportunities.

Mims profiles as a field stretcher who can also play in the slot. His versatility meshes well with what they already have on the roster. Jerry Jeudy is locked in as the talented young receiver you can move inside and out. Sutton can be used as a big deep threat. Mims allows you to have a mix of utility, enabling the offense to be more malleable for situations. Simply being on the field will present opportunities for him to be productive.

Many are projecting Russell Wilson to bounce back this season. Last year he completed just 60.4 percent of his pass attempts while having an 8.8 average depth of target. He finished the season as the QB25 in fantasy with just three QB1 games. Going into the season, Wilson was valued as the QB10 in August Startup Dynasty ADP. Mims’ upside is predicated on the renaissance of Wilson. If they let Russ Cook memes hold true, and we get Gordon Ramsey slinging the rock in Denver, then Mims can be very productive for fantasy football.

RISK

Courtesy of Sports-Reference

Oklahoma experienced many ups and downs during Mims’ tenure there. It started with the Spencer Rattler experiment. Rattler was a five-star quarterback who, at the time, was considered one of the best prospects in the country. Everything imploded with Rattler in 2021, and Caleb Williams had to come in to clean up the mess. Once the season ended, head coach Lincoln Riley took his talents along with Williams to USC.

This delivers some context to Mims’ counting stats, as he wasn’t the most productive wide receiver at the college level. At age-19, during his sophomore season, he broke out with a 20.59 percent market share of the passing offense. This was during a time when the offense was in flux. Mims improved during his final season with a 32.72 percent market share of the team’s passing production while eclipsing 1,000 yards for the first time in his career.

Courtesy of DLF’s College Market Share App

His production profile is solid. However, the big factor in his profile is his counting stats leave you wanting more. He only has one 1,000-yard season and barely made it past that threshold. Mims only has one season with over 50 catches. He also did not have a season with double-digit touchdowns. All of these are risk factors because his counting stats questions his ability to dominate at the college level. He has good rate stats in terms of market share. Mims’ production profile would be much stronger if the counting stats were as strong as his market share stats.

Another thing to note is when it comes to his baseline regression which is trained on the average metric value of the top 36 Positional finishes in fantasy. That said, it’s not like he’s crushing the thresholds. He’s barely exceeded them. This is another red flag that he might not be able to hit his upside in fantasy.

The big elephant in the room is his size. At the NFL Combine, he measured at 5’11” and 183 pounds. There are not many productive receivers of his size at the NFL level. There are some outliers, but the vast majority don’t render top-tier results with that frame. On the contrary, he has the speed, ball skills, and nuance to create separation, which could be enough to allow him to develop into a vital piece of the offense.

How does this team transition with Sean Payton and Russell Wilson? Does this offense start to click and resemble some of Payton’s old teams back when he was with the New Orleans Saints? Or will this be a dumpster fire that could impact most of the players on the roster?

MARKET

Courtesy of MFL Rookie ADP

Mims is currently being drafted in the middle of the second round with an ADP of 22.72 as the WR7. When you combine his upside with his red flags, he is appropriately priced. The market tells us through ADP that they like him as a prospect, but he’s also not 100 percent bulletproof. When drafting in the second round, he is one of the last wide receivers available with a good production profile and day two draft capital.

From what I’ve seen from my experience of drafting and looking through other people’s drafts, Mims will get drafted just about anywhere in the second round. He will more than likely fall somewhere closer to ADP. There are rare occasions when you will catch him at 3.01, but those are rare.

Courtesy of DLF’s Trade Analyzer

The DLF Trade Analyzer has Mims valued around the 2.09 pick in rookie drafts, making him the 21^st player off the board, which is not far from ADP. Some suggested players to try and trade for using his value are David Njoku, Khalil Herbert, and James Conner. The analyzer also suggests picks in the 2.03-2.06 range for you to try and up-sale in value.