John Hesterman: Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained

Welcome to another installment in our new series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2023 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft.

Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts. Valuation variability between players in the rankings can often be large but that variability can provide opportunity as well. Our DLF expert rankers should always be able to explain why they are higher, or lower, on a particular player.

While explaining our rankings will provide greater insight alone, we are also including a number of 2023 rookie draft selections interspersed with the players so you can get a better idea of how each of our rankers values those selections when compared to existing veteran players. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2023 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.

1 QB DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: JOHN HESTERMAN

Allow me to begin by admitting that this was both fun and a little challenging for me. In my fantasy football world, Super Flex is life. This project was accepted knowing it would be a challenge and an opportunity to dig a little deeper into how players are valued in single-quarterback situations. Of the numerous leagues that I am involved in, there are only two that remain that are single quarterback.

This format certainly changes the landscape as well as the draft strategy for me and can enrich a roster, especially in the early rounds where dynasty managers can choose to wait a little bit to grab their franchise signal-caller.

So, while this may not be a one-size-fits-all approach, let’s meander through the rankings and dissect the rationale.

Rankings: 1 - 24

The combination of Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase going as one and two overall, respectively, is not a variation to most rankings.

Garrett Wilson has risen in my rankings, climbing to six overall, especially with the current intention of Aaron Rodgers headed to New York to lead the Jets. Wilson accumulated over 1,100 yards as a rookie and with inconsistent quarterback play. We have yet to witness his ceiling, but I expect him to have a very good season ahead of him.

Panicking over recency bias is for redraft leagues. Jonathan Taylor has a career dating back to high school of being both productive and durable. Being penalized for battling injuries feels more like a mistake than a prophecy of future games to be missed. At 24 years old, and the most reliable offensive weapon for the Colts, Taylor comes in as my running back one and two spots above Breece Hall. Followed up by the rookie 1.01, which should be Bijan Robinson, assuming nothing cataclysmic occurs. Tee Higgins and Kenneth Walker are also firmly in the top twelve.

Chris Olave falls just inside my top-12, and I honestly fiddled back and forth with him in that range. Olave had a very successful rookie season, going for over 1,000 yards and four touchdowns. The Saints brought in veteran Derek Carr while retaining Jameis Winston. While neither offers a super high ceiling, both can be reliable deliverers of the football and Olave should pick up where he left off in being the focal point of the passing offense.

We do have a trio of vets over the age of 29 in this next group. Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Cooper Kupp are all in that age range but still offered their fantasy managers over 19 PPR points per game last season.

Rankings: 25 - 48

In this grouping, we’re adding elite quarterbacks and tight ends. Both top-tier production and positional scarcity are factors for their placements in this range.

Stefon Diggs and DeVonta Smith open this grouping before we get to our first quarterback. Patrick Mahomes comes in at number one for me. If there was any question as to whether or not Mahomes deserves to retain his QB1 status, last season should’ve cemented it. After losing Tyreek Hill, Mahomes led the Chiefs to another Super Bowl with a rag-tag group of receivers. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts slide in a few spots later.

Josh Jacobs is another player who bounced around these rankings a little bit before settling on his current position. At just 25 years old, he is still a couple of seasons ahead of the running back cliff. Playing on the franchise tag leads me to believe the Raiders have no intention of limiting his workload. After leading the league in rushing yards, there should be plenty of volume ahead of him.

Kyle Pitts comes in as my TE1, narrowly edging out Mark Andrews. Andrews has the better-perceived volume, assuming Lamar Jackson is under center in 2023. I am admittedly a sucker for overly-athletic tight ends. After Andrews, the rookie 1.02 slots in at 36 overall.

Sophomore Treylon Burks and Terry McLaurin follow up the rookie pick. These rankings reflect both some anticipated growth from Burks as the primary target for the Titans and McLaurin still basking in the ambiance of a revolving door of mediocre (at best) quarterback play.

I’m a little higher on Javonte Williams, who will most likely miss at least a few games to open the season and may not hit his stride until much later in the season. However, I still firmly believe in the talent.

Michael Pittman is another talented receiver that has yet to be blessed with consistent quarterback play. The expectation is that Colts acquire a rookie quarterback and they just signed Gardner Minshew as a very capable backup option. The ranking reflects more of Pittman’s talent as opposed to the current supporting cast.

I’ve Najee Harris a few spots lower than the consensus here. The allure for Harris is volume, not efficient production. The Steelers also have a shifty, explosive back in Jaylen Warren that they mixed in throughout the season.

Rankings: 49 - 72

I like this range of players and spent more time shuffling players here than in any other grouping and could spend even more time tinkering.

D.J. Moore fell a few spots for me. While it is reasonable to expect overall passing volume in Chicago to increase with a true number-one receiver, it is not reasonable to expect it to increase enough to put the Bears closer to the middle of the league average. Moore has had at least 118 targets in four of the previous five seasons. The target leader for the Bears last season was Cole Kmet, who only finished with 69 targets. At this point, it is challenging to project Moore to absorb the volume of targets he is accustomed to.

The rookie 1.03 pick is followed up by Jameson Williams, who should enter the 2023 season ready to roll. Prior to his injury in the title game, he was one of my favorite receivers in that class.

Lamar Jackson is interesting in this range. Back-to-back seasons battling injury, followed by the contract situation, have made him a little more complicated to rank. Jerry Jeudy is a receiver on the rise, but he is currently still tied to a version of Russell Wilson that was difficult to watch last season. Justin Fields climbs a little here after adding D.J. Moore to the offense. We already know what he is capable of with his legs, now the expectation is to see some growth as a passer.

The middle of this grouping could be shuffled around. There are some that represent a wide range of outcomes, like Christian Watson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Dameon Pierce who all represent questions at quarterback. Miles Sanders also gets a bump here after signing to be the lead dog for the Panthers, a team that should be running the ball quite a bit.

One of the biggest risers in this range also adversely affects a running back I was too high on last season. David Montgomery climbs a few spots after signing with the Lions. He represents the capable three-down skill set that the Lions want to deploy. He is also reliable on the goal line, a position they utilized with Jamaal Williams in a league-leading fashion last season. The adverse reaction here was having to push D’Andre Swift down quite a bit. The Lions obviously have questions about his durability and the backfield split will most likely favor Montgomery.

This grouping wraps up with the annually undervalued Mike Evans. Yes, there are questions at the quarterback position. Is Kyle Trask a thing or is this another opportunity for Baker Mayfield to dive-bomb the value of a talented wide receiver? Evans has done nothing but annually put up 1,000 yards. Honestly, I could move him up here, but the questions at quarterback are holding me back and suppressing his ranking here.

Rankings: 73 - 96

This grouping opens with a receiver I want to have higher. Christian Kirk quietly had a WR12 finish last season. So many are clamoring over Calvin Ridley being reinstated, but I have concerns. The first of which is that he has not played football in over a season. The second is that it is a new offense and quarterback to learn and build rapport with. Kirk could continue what he started last season and therefore be ranked too low here. The ranking reflects his range of outcomes in which the Ridley factor should be accounted for.

Both George Kittle and Dallas Goedert are in this range, so if it were ADP, this is where to grab reliable tight ends with upside. Tyler Lockett and Mike Williams are intriguing in this grouping as reliable pieces of their offenses who can sometimes disappear on the stat sheet.

Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Deshaun Watson all fall in this range. Kyler Murray may not be back on the field until well into the season and Watson did not play well in his return to football. Prescott has a new target with the recent acquisition of Brandin Cooks. The three could easily be shuffled around a bit, but seem to fit in this range.

Two rookie picks land here and represent some upside. This group is rounded out with some definite question marks in Elijah Moore (whom I still believe in), Cam Akers, and Alvin Kamara who is facing possible legal trouble and league discipline.

Rankings: 97 - 120

This group has some intriguing options and alterations to their respective rosters at current costs. At the top, Brandin Cooks lands in Dallas, feels like an immediate secondary option for Dak Prescott, and can take some heat off of CeeDee Lamb.

There are a few tight ends in this grouping. Pat Freiermuth, Darren Waller, David Njoku, and Dalton Schultz are clustered in this range. Waller steps into a positive situation and would be the primary target for Daniel Jones with the current supporting cast. Njoku is the second or third read for Deshaun Watson. Schultz takes a skinny deal in an offense that could look decidedly different as free agency tapers off and we head into the draft.

For receivers, there are a few younger players with opportunities to grow in their respective offenses. Alec Pierce will not be playing behind Parris Campbell anymore. Wan’Dale Robinson has an opportunity to grow into a more reliable role. But, the one I’d like to draw some attention to is Rondale Moore, who may be too low here, but I struggled to move him above some of the other options. While I like his floor, he does not represent the same potential ceiling as some of the other receivers in this range.

The running backs in this grouping are interesting as well. Brian Robison has steady volume as a runner, but offers little value from a PPR standpoint. Isiah Pacheco has a role that is similar but on a much better offense. Elijah Mitchell remained involved in a committee approach even with a healthy Christian McCaffrey turning back the clock on his per-game production. Damien Harris slides in as basically Devin Singletary 2.0 for Buffalo, while James Cook should handle passing downs and hurry-up offensive schemes.

All in all, I have discovered that I personally value proven talent slightly above the less-sure lottery tickets that rookie picks can sometimes represent. There were a couple of rookie picks that landed in this range, and as rankings are fluid and responsive, I am sure that many of these can be tweaked once we are beyond the rest of free agency and the draft.

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John Hesterman

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

John Hesterman has been playing fantasy football for well over a decade. His passion has been spread across multiple formats. He has written redraft fantasy for lastwordonprofootball.com and ffstatistics.com before joining the DLF family and is a member of the FSWA. His off-the-wall humor gets sprinkled into his statistical-based analysis. When not writing for fantasy, he is spending time with his family, chasing poorly hit golf balls, and playing video games. John is a die-hard LA Chargers and Chicago Cubs fan.

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