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Lineup Advice, Team Tracking, Trends & 2023 Draft – Week Six

Week six! As always, I’m answering every question, every week! New this year are my weekly dynasty team tracking and strategy thoughts.

PLEASE READ FULL POST EACH WEEK!

Did you know: We have multiple chats going on each Sunday morning including Lineup Advice and AMA (As Me Anything) with multiple DLF’ers hosting. Join in!

Week Six

Hard to believe we’re entering week six already! Injuries continue to mount, concussions are shaping fantasy scoring and quarterback play has been, sub-optimal.

By the end of this next week, you should survey your teams to determine the what is nature of your team. Just after week six, is the perfect time to start having trade discussions in earnest with teams depending on your own situation. If it’s clear you’re out of the running, look to move older assets which still have value. If competing, don’t be afraid of moving young depth for producing players. which still have 2-3 years of viability remaining.

Remember, bad things can happen to good teams. Keep your wits about you, avoid knee-jerk reactions and don’t “get cute” with your lineup decisions.

We’ve added a new service! Every Sunday morning, you can join DLF’s new Discord server to ask those last minute lineup advice questions, or anything else which may be on your mind. In the very near future, we’ll cut off lineup advice on Saturday night and use this Discord channel to ensure your questions aren’t missed Sunday AM. This new channel is taking our community interaction to the next level.

2022 Team Tracking

Just as a refresher, in 2021 I sent 40% of tracked dynasty teams to championship games. While I’d love to say it was all due to my management, luck still plays a huge role in our favorite hobby and I don’t see a repeat of 2021. That doesn’t mean I’m not gunning for 100%, however. In 2022 I added three new leagues to be tracked, bringing my total to 13.

A good week with a 9-4 record, bringing my total record to 39-26 across the 65 total games. Should have been 10-3 (see below).

I don’t care who you are or your level of expertise, sometimes you will make poor decisions, even with all the metrics, trends and tea leaves which suggest a different play. That was the case with one of my favorite leagues in week five. I came into the week 4-0, but will leave 4-1 because of a lineup error. In this league, quarterbacks can score well but they are also penalized for taking sacks, fumbling, interceptions, etc. In a game where I thought I needed more points against a good team, I talked myself into starting Cooper Rush who takes care of the football but playing in L.A., over Travis Etienne who has been generally disappointing. He took care of the football but took three sacks and threw 102 yards, netting negative points. I should have taken the guaranteed touches of Etienne and hoped for the best. It was a poor decision and I make one of these a year which serves to remind me not to make them again. He still needed 30 points from Mahomes and Waller and I caught a break with Waller exiting early due to a hamstring injury but Mahomes when all Mahomes on the Raiders as expected. On a positive note, Mahomes helped me win in other leagues so it’s all good.

In another league, a 2021 championship winner, my three quarterbacks are Dak Prescott, Trey Lance and Baker Mayfield. This is one of the teams which started 0-2 but is now 3-2, but with no quarterback. I have work to do.

Again, considering my very slow start across my 13 teams, my current 39-26 record exemplifies why it is important to not over react too quickly when a season starts poorly. Now we’re getting to the point where I will be targeting other teams with poor starts, hopefully prying away key assets to help start their rebuild.

Strategy and Trends

This is what I posted for week one:

Starting in 2021, I began a process of a mindful strategy shift, prioritizing young WR1 players as my core and mid-career veteran receivers as my production anchors with a corresponding RB-light approach as I like to call it. While I haven’t updated my numbers-based research to prove out this strategy shift, it has been clear to me that the increased RBBC (running back by committee) usage continues to sap production from the position and when combined with injury potential, makes for a very high beta (risk) in your weekly lineup and long-term build. You just won’t see WR1 players play 50% of a team’s offensive snaps while rotating with the second player on the positional depth chart. It’s the WR3s and WR4s where the greatest rotations take place.

The trend away from running back scoring seems exceedingly obvious. I keep meaning to do a bit of historical research comparing running back scoring compared to 2022 but have yet to find the time. Even without the research, it’s clear the RBBC issues are wreaking havoc across the position.  When surveying quarterback and wide receiver scoring with an eye on the top-ten within each position, I continue to see the who’s-who of the positions. Sure, there are minor surprises but nothing stunning. At the running back position, it’s a slightly different story though, evening out some from last week.

As expected Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not been able to keep up his torrid scoring and falls to RB9 (PPR). Saquon Barkley was the RB1 but falls to RB3 following strong games by Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb. After Barkley, those fading Josh Jacobs in dynasty are having their hearts ripped out as Jacobs is now the RB4 after a strong 30 point night against the Chiefs (also securing a win for me in the process). McCaffrey at RB5 is good to see followed by common names Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette. At RB8, rookie Breece Hall makes an appearance and he’s gaining momentum and he’s joined by another rookie, Dameon Pierce. Once again, it’s clear why NFL teams continue to fade the running back position during the draft. With recent success stories such as James Robinson, Dameon Pierce, Jeff Wilson, Khalil Herbert, etc. good backs don’t necessarily need to carry draft premium. Breece Hall, however, looks like a different cat.

The running back position in fantasy is quickly becoming a have or have-not proposition. If you’re stuck in the middle, it’s going to be painful. RB13 is currently 40 points from RB1, or 64%. I took a quick look back at how RB1 to RB13 finished in 2021 and the spread was 55%. In 2020, the spread was 51%. Currently, 2022 is showing more compression through five weeks, but this could very well be due to early-season trending, meaning that as the season drones on, the “haves” pull away from the “have-nots.”

This all said, I continue to look for opportunities to trade away running backs in return for young starting receivers with upside. We continue to lose backs on a weekly basis, this week it was Rashaad Penny, who is done for the remainder of the season due to a broken fibula. Saquon Barkley owners received a scare when he left in the second half with a reported shoulder injury, only to return a series later. We are losing receivers to concussions as well, but the prospects for the position continue to trend well.

This is also a good time to start targeting early-to-mid second-round rookie selections in 2023 IF you find yourself needing a developmental quarterback. This is the perfect time to move depth for one of these selections, a great place to add the first quarterback off the board in 1QB formats. I never mind taking the first quarterback off the board late in the first round if needed, but I prefer to wait until somewhere in the 13-15 (overall) range. As we’ve seen with running backs (Dameon Pierce), the early-second round is not a horrible place to select a developmental back.

Speaking of the 2023 draft class, the top has come off the group a bit with generally poor performances by the receivers. It’s s till expected to be a quality running back class, especially at the top, but the top receivers, almost across the board, are having a poor showing. Only USC’s Jordan Addison is maintaining his momentum. Keep an eye on big receiver Quentin Johnson (TCU) who is starting to assert himself. 2023 isn’t a year for big receivers at the top of the board, so it’s not necessarily a bad strategy to consider selling projected late-first rookie selections.

The quarterback class continues to be relatively deep and impressive.

Lineup Advice Rules & Format

DLF continues to see amazing growth in our membership and each year I wonder how I’m going to keep up with all of your questions while also holding to a level of service and quality you’ve all come to expect from me. I’ve been VERY happy with my level of accuracy but, for that to occur, I need your help. Each question can take up to 10 minutes for me to research as I research up to a dozen different variables and trends. I do everything I can to get my answers correct. For that reason, I need you to read the following rules and guidelines to help me maintain efficiency:

  • Please don’t ask me to set your entire lineup
  • Put “TNF” as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
  • Please also make sure to tell me who YOU would be starting if not for my advice. It helps me to understand your gut feeling.
  • Include your scoring format  (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
  • Keep your questions as brief as possible – Story questions add a lot of time
  • I prioritize questions involving the earliest (Thursday, etc.) games first. If I skip over your question, don’t worry, I’ll be back to it.
  • It’s easy to miss responses to my responses in thread. When in doubt, always post a separate new question

Lastly, I work very hard to get my advice correct and I do not mail it in. When I’m wrong, I feel every incorrect answer so, go easy on me! That said, the DLF community has been absolutely fantastic to work with which is why I’m still doing this after so many years.

Have a great week! Have an even better season!

Let’s do this…

Jeff Haverlack
Lineup Advice, Team Tracking, Trends & 2023 Draft – Week Six
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Ashley Moser
1 month ago

12 team PPR/1.25 PPR TE

Pick one of: Dobbins, Isaiah Mckenzie, KJ Osborn, Deon Jackson

Thanks!!!

Mike Wendland
1 month ago

After already bumping DJM from his WR spot in favor of Olave, is it also time to bump him from the Flex in favor of McKenzie going forward? I still believe in his talent, but don’t expect the CAR offense to improve at all for the rest of this season.
Thank you.

Peter Paguaga
1 month ago

TNF

Assuming Jonathan Taylor plays

Going
RB: JT, Ekeler and Aaron Jones (flex)

Choose 2 WRs
Stefon Diggs (he’s a lock)
Dionate Johnson
Jerry Jeudy
Terry McLaurin (TNF)

IF JT is OUT

RB: Ekeler, Jones

WR choose 3
Diggs
Dionate Johnson
Jerry Jeudy
Terry (TNF)

Appreciate all the help as always!

Vincent Modrak
1 month ago

Salutations!

10TM, PPR

Current starting roster I’m leaning:
QB: J. Allen @ KC
RB: J. Taylor vs JAX
RB: L. Fournette @ PIT
WR: J. Chase @ NO
WR: D. Metcalf vs ARI
TE: K. Pitts vs SF (returning to practice?)
WRT: J. Waddle vs MIN
WRT: T. Etienne @ IND

Bench options:
RB: Akers vs CAR, M. Gordon @ LAC
WR: London vs SF
TE: Hurst @ NO

Would you switch anything currently? If J. Taylor is OUT would you plug Akers or Gordon in at RB or slide Etienne up to RB and start London in the flex? If Pitts plays this week is he a must start over Hurst still?

Thank you for your time!
P.s. I’m playing the second best team so ceiling plays might be the way to go this week.

Last edited 1 month ago by Vincent Modrak
Glen Potter
1 month ago

Hey Jeff,
I hope all is when in pacific northwest.
I have Chase, Diggs, Lamb, Deebo, Evans on my squad as well as a few lesser names.
I have been starting Diggs, Chase, Lamb and Deebo every week. I am leaning towards starting Evans over Lamb this week. I have not really gotten a lot of scoring(expected) from this group on a regular weekly basis. Diggs and Evans are my top scorers on per game avg. Lamb is behind Chase and Deebo in weekly avg. Maybe wait till Dak gets back?
Your thoughts?
Thanks

Andrew Walinsky
1 month ago

12 team PPR
I need two of: Dobbins, M.Gordon, Brian Robinson, Boone
I’m leaning toward Dobbins (though very concerned about his usage) and Gordon (backfield could be a mess, but LAC can’t stop the run).
Thank you!

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

TNF –
Hi Kemo. Glad things were positive regarding your father-in-law.
PPR
1) Need both my third WR and second flex from this illustrious group – Mooney, Lazard, Jeudy, Aiyuk, Alec Pierce, and MVS. I like Pierce and almost played him last week but worry about Ryan and the Jax DST. It’s hard to keep faith in Jeudy having been burned two of out the last three weeks now. Lazard is still getting some love from Rodgers and Mooney seems to be getting somewhat better QB play lately, so which two are my best shot?

2) Similar situation – Need my third WR and both my two flex from Mooney, MT, Gallup, Alec Pierce, Duvernay, and Hollins. What sayeth your crystal ball?

Kris H
1 month ago

10 Team ½ point PPR
Need two of four RBs:
S Barkley vs BAL, J Robinson @ IND, C Akers vs CAR and M Gordon @ LAC. Also where would R Mostert fall in with this group as he is currently available?
Need three of five WRs:
K Allen vs DEN (assuming he plays), R Bateman @ NYG, M Evans @ PIT, C Lamb @ PHI and DJ Moore @ LAR.
Thanks in advance

Mark D'Angelo
1 month ago

0.5 PPR
2 Flex: James Robinson, Gabe Davis, Keenan Allen (if healthy), Tony Pollard, Garett Wilson (Not sure, Gabe Davis & Pollard maybe? Robinson looking iffy, Allen still struggling to get healthy, Wilson not getting the looks)
1 TE: Dawson Knox, Hayden Hurst, Hunter Henry (Leaning Hurst because he just seems more involved)
1 RB & 1 Flex: Melvin Gordon, Devin Singletary, DJ Moore, James Robinson, Garrett Wilson, Drake London (Gordon & Singletary seem like my best options)
1 TE: Ertz or Njoku (Time to unleash Njoku into my lineup?)
Thank you!

Raynall21
1 month ago

PPR: Zeke or Dobbins?

thepistol11
1 month ago

Hey Jeff

PPR League

Who would you bench:
Diontae Johnson
Drake London
Hollywood Brown
Sutton

And who would you start:
Pollard or Jeff Wilson?

William Morrison
1 month ago

***TNF***

Hi Jeff!

Thanks for all the help as always! Would you rather start Rondale or Mooney this week in half-PPR?

Thanks!
Wil

William Morrison
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks for the quick help, Jeff! Rondale it is 🙂

James Richardson
1 month ago

TNF
My QBs are Lance, Tua, and Goff so I need an emergency QB for this week. I missed Wentz by one Waiver Slot so now only Ryan and Brissett are available for free agent pickup. I could trade for Justin Fields but the price is rather steep…two 2023 2nd round picks that I would rather not give up. Should I do the trade or pick up Ryan or Brissett? Thanks.

James Richardson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Ugh…looks like we both wiffed on Brissett over Ryan…where did THAT Ryan come from…LOL

mattryan1975
1 month ago

Pick 2 PPR Thursday night players
Terry McClauren, Drake London, Isiah McKenzie or Eno Benjamin.

thanks

mattryan1975
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thank you for that advise, yuck was my initial thought as well.

Anthony Coleman
1 month ago

TNF

PPR: Boone or McKissic
.5PPR: DeeJay Dallas or Jaylen Warren

Eastman Tiu
1 month ago

Hi Jeff,

I hope the family emergency has had some positive resolutions this week.

0.5 PPR
At WR, I have Gabe Davis and Sutton in. If I were to replace one of them, would you consider

Theilen at Miami or
Doubs vs Jets

Also, I’m I crazy for starting
Geno Smith vs Cards
over Russell at Chargers this week?

I think Theilen and Doubs easily remain on the bench. I’m actually starting Taysom Hill at flex because we get 1 per 7 yards for TE

And Geno is hot and Russell is not. That’s why for me, along with Russell being a it dinged up. And don’t want to invest too much into the Broncos since I also have Sutton going in case they throw up another stinker.

Thanks again!
ET

Eastman Tiu
Reply to  Eastman Tiu
1 month ago

Whoa Akers is out this week and I have Henderson. I think that makes him a start over any of these other guys. I also have Aaron Jones and Singletary starting at RB.

Matthew Crawford
1 month ago

Non PPR 6pt passing TD
Have Jalen Hurts Looking ahead to week 7, his bye
Available QBs
Carr versus Houston at home
Garoppolo versus KC at home
D. Jones versus Jacksonville away
Winston versus Arizona away
Others available Goff, Ryan, Lawrence
I’m leaning Garoppolo in a high scoring affair. May also keep this QB in case of an injury.
Also looking ahead at SOS,
Thoughts appreciated. Thanks Jeff

Chad Gorick
1 month ago

Hey Jeff
non-PPR Need one from JMyers, APierce or DLondon
PPR WR3/flex – please rank GWilson, Jeudy, ETN, and JK
IDP tackle premium need one – Barton vs AZ or LWilson vs NO
SF QB2 need one – Brisset, Mariota or Skylar
PPR Flex need two – Pitts, KJ, Mattison, DeeJay Dallas, JKelly, Gainwell (I know, ugly)
Thank you sir!

Chad Gorick
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks Jeff

VIN DACCARDI
1 month ago

10 team / .5 PPR… I need 2 from Amari Cooper, Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk & Travis Etienne.
My thoughts…
Cooper (vs NE) has been very good at home this year but a Belichick defense is always a concern for me.
I’m not a big fan of Waddle (vs MIN) this week without Tua or Teddy at QB. I know he is a stud and is finally healthy and I know he can blow up at any time, but he is still just the #2 WR in his own offense playing with a 3rd string QB this week.
Aiyuk (@ ATL) has a great matchup and I think he is primed for a breakout game.
Etienne (@ IND) has been playing well and I feel like he is ready for a breakout game as well.

Alexa Feldman
1 month ago

.5ppr superflex

Need to start 3 in the Flex: Juju, I.McKenzie, D.Njoku, Jakobi Meyers, D.Duvernay, M.Boone – I’m leaning Meyers, McKenzie, Njoku considering Juju is playing against Buffalo.

Thanks as always!

Alexa Feldman
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thank you Jeff!

James Richardson
1 month ago

Hello Jeff…I have to start 3 WRs in a full PPR league. Here are my guys to choose from…Diontae Johnson (probably a start but concerned with Buc D), Jakobi Meyers (seems to be a PPR guy), Mike Williams (very, very concerned with Surtain covering him all day), Alec Pierce, or Rondale Moore (I am actually leaning towards him on nothing but a gut feel). Would love your thoughts. Thanks.

bmoe21
1 month ago

Hey Jeff! Appreciate you doing this!

Full point PPR. ETN is my RB2. But I did just pick up Boone. Who do you think is the better play this week? Thanks in advance!

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Ouch! TNF wouldn’t have been such a stinker again for me if Samuel caught that TD…..

PPR
1) With Penny gone and Jacobs on bye, I need 2 RB and 2 flex from CEH, Mostert, Wilson, JRob, McKinnon, Pickens, and Shakir. The last two are probably out with McKenzie back and Pickens going against TBay. I’m leaning the first four RB’s but could use your insight.

2) Could use two flex from Henderson (Akers is what??), Marvin J, Hardman, Parker, and Rachaad White. I also have Mattison and Edmonds but don’t see much help there.

3) Different team – Before Akers fell into some kind of twilight zone, I had thought about him as my last flex vs the Panther soft run D, but now I’m stuck with only Claypool and Pierre Strong available unless I pick up someone off waivers early Sunday morning. Got your “Magic 8” crystal ball to ask?

4) Another Akers team… Need a 2nd RB from JRob and Coleman and your best shot at two flex from Gallup, Alec Pierce, and the “loser” of that RB #2 question between JRob and Coleman.

5) Finally – Jags or Cowboys for DST this week.

Thx as always Kemo.

Ryan Barnt
1 month ago

1QB, 12tm, PPR
Howdy Jeff,
Week 6 flex start Mike Boone or Josh Palmer?
My gut feel is to start Boone with the matchup especially if Keenan is playing but most experts are picking Palmer if Keenan is out again.
Ryan

Steve Reyland
1 month ago

Jeff,
Standard scoring, PPR.
Now that Akers is in McVay’s doghouse, probably not hard to do, do I play Henderson over J.Robinson JAX RB?
Thanks for the help.

Peter Paguaga
1 month ago

Hey Jeff, I am back lol
With Jonathan taylor being ruled out, should I go with Deon Jackson in my lineup at the flex (starting Ekeler and Aaron Jones at RB) or go with Jerry Jeudy?
Thanks a bunch

Jon Souliere
1 month ago

Hey Jeff,
.5 PPR. Start one: Miles Sanders, Godwin, Kenneth Walker. Thank you!

Jon Souliere
Reply to  Jon Souliere
1 month ago

Forgot to mention I am leaning Sanders but his vulture QB gives me pause.

Jamie Horton
1 month ago

Hey Jeff – does Deon Jackson hold any flex-ability this week with JT out? Would you play him above Melvin Gordon for example?

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Regarding your answer a couple of hours ago to my set of lineup questions – With everything you have going on, the first part of the question may have just slipped by.
#4 – Looking for my 2nd RB from JRob or Coleman who I picked off waivers. If you prefer JRob there, that leaves me with Coleman, Gallup, and Alec Pierce to choose from for my two flex spots. Not really sure of Coleman’s workload but he got some work last week and Shanahan’s almost as crazy as McVay. Just wasn’t sure based on just your answer of JRob and Pierce for the flex part of question #4.

And yes, I guess an Akers trade would clear things up but there still seems to be a question of exactly what went down between him and the team/coach.
Thx again.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

On an earlier reply (yesterday) to a different query – Marvin J is now out which gives me Hardman, Parker, Rachaad White, or waiver fodder for my last flex after Henderson. Ugh!

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

BB waivers lock at 10 am Eastern. Can drop Bridgewater (starting Geno) for one of these:

Bourne (Agholor now out but I also have Parker already rostered)
Agnew (Marvin out)
DeAndre Carter
Phillip Lindsay (JT out)
Slayton (Can I be that desperate?)

Or stick with either Parker, Rachaad White, or Hardman? Team has lost two of three without Dak and just trying to stay in the middle of the pack.

Ryan Barnt
1 month ago

1QB, 12tm, PPR
Howdy Jeff,
New wrinkle with MT, Landry & Olave all out for Week 6… Flex start Marquez Callaway or Josh Palmer?

Really appreciate this service!
Ryan

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Thx for the help. I think Parker was probably my best guess as well. I’m just not sure Zappe can reach him. I may put a cheap bid in on Agnew just in case Parker stubs his toe getting on the team bus.
The team deserves to be better than 2-3 but losing both Dak and Swift put a dent in things. I almost traded for Burrow right after Dak went out, but it turns out even putting him in as QB wouldn’t have changed the three game results against stronger teams. I picked up Bridgewater on waivers on Sunday morning and put him in and……I just need the “W” to not fall too far back.
I may check you out on Discord. My primary league site (5 teams) uses it for chat but I’ve had a couple of sign up issues with it.
Finally – Jags or Ravens DST?

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thx Kemo. Good luck today.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Probably shooting my big toe off here but with Gaskin out, I’m going to swap out Parker for Edmonds just in case Mostert needs a few breathers.

Shawn Barberis
1 month ago

SF/TE premium. Tried to join the Discord chat but it wouldn’t let me post a question.
D. Jackosn vs JAX or D. London vs SF? PPR.
Ty!!

Shawn Barberis
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Great. Thanks Jeff. I don’t see a “line up advice” channel. Just “welcome page”.

Dale Norwood
1 month ago

Jeff, Skyler Thompson or gamble on Lamb’s health in my PPR OP position?

Paul Wright
1 month ago

Jeff – 12 team 0.5ppr superflex Qb I have
Qb JAllen Mac Jones is out do I play Andy Dalton as my # 2 Qb or Skylar Thompson both not really good options or do I put Jeudy or Mckenzie in that second Qb flex spot
Thanks

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