Lineup Advice, Team Tracking, Trends & 2023 Draft – Week Six

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Week Six

Hard to believe we're entering week six already! Injuries continue to mount, concussions are shaping fantasy scoring and quarterback play has been, sub-optimal.

By the end of this next week, you should survey your teams to determine the what is nature of your team. Just after week six, is the perfect time to start having trade discussions in earnest with teams depending on your own situation. If it's clear you're out of the running, look to move older assets which still have value. If competing, don't be afraid of moving young depth for producing players. which still have 2-3 years of viability remaining.

Remember, bad things can happen to good teams. Keep your wits about you, avoid knee-jerk reactions and don't "get cute" with your lineup decisions.

We've added a new service! Every Sunday morning, you can join DLF's new Discord server to ask those last minute lineup advice questions, or anything else which may be on your mind. In the very near future, we'll cut off lineup advice on Saturday night and use this Discord channel to ensure your questions aren't missed Sunday AM. This new channel is taking our community interaction to the next level.

2022 Team Tracking

Just as a refresher, in 2021 I sent 40% of tracked dynasty teams to championship games. While I'd love to say it was all due to my management, luck still plays a huge role in our favorite hobby and I don't see a repeat of 2021. That doesn't mean I'm not gunning for 100%, however. In 2022 I added three new leagues to be tracked, bringing my total to 13.

A good week with a 9-4 record, bringing my total record to 39-26 across the 65 total games. Should have been 10-3 (see below).

I don't care who you are or your level of expertise, sometimes you will make poor decisions, even with all the metrics, trends and tea leaves which suggest a different play. That was the case with one of my favorite leagues in week five. I came into the week 4-0, but will leave 4-1 because of a lineup error. In this league, quarterbacks can score well but they are also penalized for taking sacks, fumbling, interceptions, etc. In a game where I thought I needed more points against a good team, I talked myself into starting Cooper Rush who takes care of the football but playing in L.A., over Travis Etienne who has been generally disappointing. He took care of the football but took three sacks and threw 102 yards, netting negative points. I should have taken the guaranteed touches of Etienne and hoped for the best. It was a poor decision and I make one of these a year which serves to remind me not to make them again. He still needed 30 points from Mahomes and Waller and I caught a break with Waller exiting early due to a hamstring injury but Mahomes when all Mahomes on the Raiders as expected. On a positive note, Mahomes helped me win in other leagues so it's all good.

In another league, a 2021 championship winner, my three quarterbacks are Dak Prescott, Trey Lance and Baker Mayfield. This is one of the teams which started 0-2 but is now 3-2, but with no quarterback. I have work to do.

Again, considering my very slow start across my 13 teams, my current 39-26 record exemplifies why it is important to not over react too quickly when a season starts poorly. Now we're getting to the point where I will be targeting other teams with poor starts, hopefully prying away key assets to help start their rebuild.

Strategy and Trends

This is what I posted for week one:

Starting in 2021, I began a process of a mindful strategy shift, prioritizing young WR1 players as my core and mid-career veteran receivers as my production anchors with a corresponding RB-light approach as I like to call it. While I haven't updated my numbers-based research to prove out this strategy shift, it has been clear to me that the increased RBBC (running back by committee) usage continues to sap production from the position and when combined with injury potential, makes for a very high beta (risk) in your weekly lineup and long-term build. You just won't see WR1 players play 50% of a team's offensive snaps while rotating with the second player on the positional depth chart. It's the WR3s and WR4s where the greatest rotations take place.

The trend away from running back scoring seems exceedingly obvious. I keep meaning to do a bit of historical research comparing running back scoring compared to 2022 but have yet to find the time. Even without the research, it's clear the RBBC issues are wreaking havoc across the position.  When surveying quarterback and wide receiver scoring with an eye on the top-ten within each position, I continue to see the who's-who of the positions. Sure, there are minor surprises but nothing stunning. At the running back position, it's a slightly different story though, evening out some from last week.

As expected Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not been able to keep up his torrid scoring and falls to RB9 (PPR). Saquon Barkley was the RB1 but falls to RB3 following strong games by Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb. After Barkley, those fading Josh Jacobs in dynasty are having their hearts ripped out as Jacobs is now the RB4 after a strong 30 point night against the Chiefs (also securing a win for me in the process). McCaffrey at RB5 is good to see followed by common names Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette. At RB8, rookie Breece Hall makes an appearance and he's gaining momentum and he's joined by another rookie, Dameon Pierce. Once again, it's clear why NFL teams continue to fade the running back position during the draft. With recent success stories such as James Robinson, Dameon Pierce, Jeff Wilson, Khalil Herbert, etc. good backs don't necessarily need to carry draft premium. Breece Hall, however, looks like a different cat.

The running back position in fantasy is quickly becoming a have or have-not proposition. If you're stuck in the middle, it's going to be painful. RB13 is currently 40 points from RB1, or 64%. I took a quick look back at how RB1 to RB13 finished in 2021 and the spread was 55%. In 2020, the spread was 51%. Currently, 2022 is showing more compression through five weeks, but this could very well be due to early-season trending, meaning that as the season drones on, the "haves" pull away from the "have-nots."

This all said, I continue to look for opportunities to trade away running backs in return for young starting receivers with upside. We continue to lose backs on a weekly basis, this week it was Rashaad Penny, who is done for the remainder of the season due to a broken fibula. Saquon Barkley owners received a scare when he left in the second half with a reported shoulder injury, only to return a series later. We are losing receivers to concussions as well, but the prospects for the position continue to trend well.

This is also a good time to start targeting early-to-mid second-round rookie selections in 2023 IF you find yourself needing a developmental quarterback. This is the perfect time to move depth for one of these selections, a great place to add the first quarterback off the board in 1QB formats. I never mind taking the first quarterback off the board late in the first round if needed, but I prefer to wait until somewhere in the 13-15 (overall) range. As we've seen with running backs (Dameon Pierce), the early-second round is not a horrible place to select a developmental back.

Speaking of the 2023 draft class, the top has come off the group a bit with generally poor performances by the receivers. It's s till expected to be a quality running back class, especially at the top, but the top receivers, almost across the board, are having a poor showing. Only USC's Jordan Addison is maintaining his momentum. Keep an eye on big receiver Quentin Johnson (TCU) who is starting to assert himself. 2023 isn't a year for big receivers at the top of the board, so it's not necessarily a bad strategy to consider selling projected late-first rookie selections.

The quarterback class continues to be relatively deep and impressive.

Lineup Advice Rules & Format

DLF continues to see amazing growth in our membership and each year I wonder how I'm going to keep up with all of your questions while also holding to a level of service and quality you've all come to expect from me. I've been VERY happy with my level of accuracy but, for that to occur, I need your help. Each question can take up to 10 minutes for me to research as I research up to a dozen different variables and trends. I do everything I can to get my answers correct. For that reason, I need you to read the following rules and guidelines to help me maintain efficiency:

• Please don't ask me to set your entire lineup
• Put "TNF" as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
• Please also make sure to tell me who YOU would be starting if not for my advice. It helps me to understand your gut feeling.
• Include your scoring format  (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
• Keep your questions as brief as possible - Story questions add a lot of time
• I prioritize questions involving the earliest (Thursday, etc.) games first. If I skip over your question, don't worry, I'll be back to it.
• It's easy to miss responses to my responses in thread. When in doubt, always post a separate new question

Lastly, I work very hard to get my advice correct and I do not mail it in. When I'm wrong, I feel every incorrect answer so, go easy on me! That said, the DLF community has been absolutely fantastic to work with which is why I'm still doing this after so many years.

Have a great week! Have an even better season!

Let's do this...