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Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Faller: Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC

Is Trevor Lawrence just not as good as advertised? Or has his value fallen too soon?

Trevor Lawrence

Summer and the off-season are upon us. As dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Risers and Fallers series, we break down some of the fantasy-relevant dynasty players, including rookies, and look at their values while providing actionable advice on what to do with them.

Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC (July 2021 Rank=74.0, Current Rank=82.86)

Dynasty managers are an impatient bunch. It wasn’t long ago that Lawrence was the second coming of Joe Montana. No quarterback has lost more value in the past year than the Clemson grad. On the opposite end of the spectrum is star Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Change in Player Value App.

Lawrence’s positional ADP has declined. His drop has not been significant, but it is noticeable. It is easy to figure out why. Lawrence finished as the QB22 in 2021.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Dynasty Rankings History Comparison App.

A finish like that will damage a dynasty manager’s valuation of a player, even the most patient of them. That is likely why the positional ADP has dropped the Jaguars signal-caller from a top-five pick to outside of QB1 range in just over one year.

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Data Courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.

The expert ranking panel at DLF has not yet given up on the 22-year-old. They all still have him inside their top ten except for Rob Willette. In fact, four of the six have him as the QB8 or QB9 overall.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Quarterback Rankings.

If you have played dynasty for any length of time, you know what a virtue patience can be. Do things always pan out and turn out the way we think? No. But if you give up now and Lawrence does turn out to be the next big thing, could you forgive yourself? Also no.

Urban Legend?

The entire Jacksonville Jaguars roster was doomed the day owner Shahid Khan decided to hire Urban Meyer as his head coach for 2021. Lawrence and the offense never stood a chance. The timeline of bad decision after bad decision was chronicled by Yahoo if you care to read more about it. The end result was an offense ranked dead last in points per game.

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Data Courtesy of Stat Muse.

It is hard for any fantasy player to be relevant on a team averaging just 14.9 points per game. It is unfathomable that the offense could only muster 12 passing touchdowns for the entire season. That is .71 passing scores per contest for those keeping score at home. Not good.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

The offense “led” by Meyer put the rookie Lawrence in a position to throw a lot, mainly because they were playing from behind, but that ultimately led to a rank of number two in the league in terms of interceptions thrown. Lawrence’s rushing numbers (attempts and yards) were also sneaky good, considering there are several rushing quarterbacks in today’s NFL.

Super Bowl Swagger

Gone is Meyer (thankfully), and hired to be the headman to replace him is Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson. You can tell by the demeanor on the sidelines that the former Eagles coach does not lack confidence. That moxie trickles down to the quarterback and the entire team, for that matter.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.

You would also walk around with your head held high if you coached a QB8 and QB9 finish out of Carson Wentz in 2017 and 2019, respectively, as Pederson did. Lawrence is much more talented than Wentz and should provide the veteran coach with some flexibility in his offense. Travis Etienne should be fully healthy, and James Robinson is an excellent “backup” to have around.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator from 2013 to 2015 is no stranger to utilizing his tight ends. Perhaps that is why Evan Engram was brought in early on in free agency. We all know the freakish athleticism he possesses. The former Giant may just need to be in the right system and have the right quarterback throwing him the ball. Let’s face it; Daniel Jones wasn’t known for his accuracy.

Other additions to the skill positions were Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Snoop Conner (via draft). The offensive line was also solidified a bit with the selection of Luke Fortner and the signing of perennial Pro Bowler Brandon Scherff. The Jags were awful at protecting their prized rookie last season. That should help.

Conclusion/Course of Action

So what do we do? If you bought at the exorbitant price last year believing you had a top-tier dynasty asset on your hand, you should keep said asset and still believe. There is nowhere to go but up. There is a chance that Lawrence could completely flame, but the talent is still there. He didn’t forget how to play football.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Trade Finder.

If you like bargains, you should seek out an impatient owner who is ready to give up on a prized asset after just one down season and a rookie season at that. I am buying wherever I can, especially in superflex leagues.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Faller: Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC
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Gordon Thomas
1 month ago

Glad to hear you are buying. Makes me feel better, was worried when I saw FALLER

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