The DLF Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag
Hey, loyal Dynasty League Football universe. I’ll be answering your mailbag questions this off-season and couldn’t be more excited to do so.
The off-season is when dynasty league managers get to sit back and relax. Wait. That’s completely incorrect.
Now is when we refine our strategies, look back at the past year, the year to come, and everything in between. For this week’s questions, I asked the Twitterverse for some help.
I need and crave questions for the @DLFootball mailbag. Give me those good questions Twitter friends!
— (((Shanesays))) (@ShaneIsTheWorst) July 11, 2022
Going forward, you can send your questions to the DLF mailbag. Let’s dig in!
Who will emerge as the MIA RB who outperforms his adp. The easy answer seems to be Chase Edmonds but is it? He underwhelmed in AZ when given solo work. Thanks Shane.
— Troy VanRiper (@ffyinzer) July 17, 2022
According to DLF’s most recent ADP, the Miami backfield provides several cheap options for any bargain hunters. Chase Edmonds is being drafted as the RB33, Raheem Mostert as the RB58, Myles Gaskin is the RB60, and Sony Michel checks in as the RB67. It’s easy to look at their respective ADPs and tell you that each of these players is worth taking a shot on, but that’s no help to you unless your league’s roster sizes are about 90 deep.
At RB33, I’ll pass on Edmonds for a couple of reasons. Despite Arizona wanting to feature him, he has never produced any better than the RB23, and never scored more than 11.9 PPG. The Cardinals put no effort in retaining Edmonds after last season, instead signing James Conner to a three-year contract worth $21 million contract, with $13.5 million of that guaranteed. Edmonds ended up with the Dolphins on a two-year deal worth $12 million with only $6 million guaranteed. The NFL speaks to us through contracts and draft capital. Edmonds’ contract is telling us he is not considered a starting running back. Lastly, in the range he is being drafted, I’d much rather have someone like Christian Watson, Jahan Dotson, or Rachaad White.
Myles Gaskin is completely off my radar, even as the RB60. The Dolphins brought in three new running backs for him to compete with touches for, and they have made it obvious Gaskin is not in their future plans. Many in the community will tell you that there’s no such thing as injury prone, so let’s just say Mostert has a prolonged history of getting injured, so I find it difficult to put myself in a position where I need to trust him.
By process of elimination, Sony Michel as the RB67 is the running back I want from this backfield. This is most certainly a bit of recency bias, but Michel looked really good last year when he started in Darrell Henderson’s absence.
Though Michel’s 11.7 PPG in those games was actually less than Edmonds’ yearly PPG, the players you need to pass up to select Michel in this range are also of far lesser quality. Instead of passing on rookie wide receivers with first-round NFL Draft capital, you’re passing up on Keontay Ingram, Tyler Higbee, and KJ Osborn.
What are your favorite league scoring settings? Favorite league rules?
— Paulywall 🍥 (@Paulywall_) July 17, 2022
I am strictly a superflex player. I want the most important position in the game to matter and if you’re not playing in superflex leagues, then quarterbacks just don’t. Full-point PPR is a must, mostly because I don’t want to do hard math and figuring out how many points a six-catch, 60-yard day equates to is nice and easy. But I also like leagues that include a premium for tight end receptions – at least 1.75 – because 1.5 PPR is just window-dressing and doesn’t actually change much. I prefer 2.0 PPR for tight ends but I can deal with 1.75. This scoring allows tight ends outside of the top seven/eight to be in the flex conversation.
Point-per-carry leagues are awesome because they force players (like me) to value running backs, even when we would much rather just build through the wide receiver position. Any scoring that allows some creativity when constructing a roster is scoring I enjoy. I typically only need one rule to be happy: no trade deadlines. I’ve talked about this ad nauseam, but restricting trades is unnatural and it stifles league activity.
How long do you typically hold on to a rookie/2nd year player/etc. that's buried on a depth chart before you finally give up on them, i.e. Tylan Wallace?
— Richard Sickels (@gingerbe3rdman) July 11, 2022
I’d propose you should never draft wide receivers like Tylan Wallace, but I get it, we do love our sleepers in dynasty fantasy football. I give these players one season to make some type of impact. It might sound cold, but rookie wide receivers with good draft capital who bust in their rookie years rarely recover to become useful/valuable fantasy assets, and the odds are even worse for wide receivers with bad draft capital.
Going all the way back to 2018, history is littered with rookie wide receiver busts who went on to do almost nothing in their fantasy careers. James Washington, Anthony Callaway, Equanimeous St. Brown, N’Keal Harry, Parris Campbell, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Hakeem Butler, Andy Isabella, Riley Ridley, Jalen Reagor, Denzel Mims, KJ Hamler, and Van Jefferson are just some of the many busts over the past several drafts. These players had varying collegiate profiles, athletic profiles, and draft capital, but the one common denominator was a poor rookie season that they could never recover from. Cut bait and run on rookie wide receiver busts.
Hollywood and Boyd for a 23 1st and 4th 14 team SF start 10 .5 TEP lol
— Zack Linton (@FFUnclePiff) July 11, 2022
TRADE ALERT! I wanted an excuse to highlight the Dynasty Trade Analyzer, and this question gives me that opportunity. Because I didn’t take a screenshot of the analyzer prior to making this deal, I’ll just do so now. I gave up Marquise Brown and Tyler Boyd, getting back a 2023 first and fourth.
The analyzer really likes my side, and while I do agree, this trade could obviously go sideways for me. This particular league is a 14-teamer starting 10, so finding starting-caliber players is of utmost importance. Brown has seen his fantasy scoring increase every season in his career so far, finishing as the WR21 (PPG), last year and he now gets to play with his college quarterback, Kyler Murray. The Cardinals, historically, are a pass-heavy offense, and unlike in Baltimore, Arizona doesn’t have a Mark Andrews who’s going to hog a target share of 26%. My friend Tyler Justin Karp speaks more on this situation here.
Boyd was a WR3 last year, even playing with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and is a free agent after the 2022 season, and could easily find himself on another roster as their WR2. All this is to say, while I do agree with the analyzer (I’m just a tad high on the 2023 class in case you haven’t heard), my trade partner does have multiple outs for this deal to work out in their favor.
Who are your favorite RBs in next year’s class?
— Hunter Greene 🇺🇦 (@Hgree56) July 11, 2022
It’s important to know your strengths and weaknesses. My strengths lie in trade analysis, and strategy. While I’m confident in my player evaluation skills, I would be remiss if I didn’t admit it’s not my strength. But no worries, here at DLF we have a number of writers who are excellent devy minds. Rob Willette has been counting down the top 100 devy players for the past couple of months. If you want rankings, well we have those as well. I would suggest you pick the brains of Bruce Matson, Peter Lawrence, Steve Gill, and Michael Nelson, our other devy rankers. Once the 2022 season concludes many writers, Mike Havens, among others, can help you navigate the running back class and their professional outlooks.
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