The Ask DLF Weekly Rundown
We do a weekly Ask DLF show every Tuesday at 9 PM Eastern on DLF’s YouTube Channel. Every week, we answer live dynasty questions and love doing it, especially with how interactive the live chat is. Of course, make sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel so you can be a part of this experience in the future.
However, the chat has become so active that we rarely actually answer all the questions in full detail. Still, we don’t want to let the people down, especially those who tuned into the live show. Therefore, we decided to do this article series, where we will provide written answers to some of the lengthier questions or the ones where we had to cut the answer short.
Let’s jump into this week’s first question!
Trevon Bulger – Would you trade Cam Akers and Amon-Ra St. Brown for Christian McCaffrey in 12-team PPR 1QB?
I thought this trade was a good one to open the article, as guest Josh Larky and I disagreed on the value. Let’s see what the DLF Trade Analyzer has to say.
On the show, I said McCaffrey carried more value, while Josh preferred the Akers and St. Brown side. The analyzer slightly likes the McCaffrey side, putting him 10.5 points ahead of the package side.
Even after two injury-riddled seasons, I still think McCaffrey should bring back more in a trade. Let’s look at the DLF Trade Finder to examine some recent deals.
Here’s a far superior trade involving McCaffrey. I’d prefer D’Andre Swift over McCaffrey straight up, and I’d love nothing more than to pivot from the 1.10 in this rookie class to a 2023 first-rounder. This trade is a smash accept.
I chose this trade because it’s similar to the original question, just with Marquise Brown instead of Amon-Ra St. Brown. I think getting a more proven receiver like Brown makes the trade more even, although I’d prefer to make a better trade. However, it’s clearly possible to get a bit more value than the original offer.
Corey Jacques – KJ Hamler or Snoop Conner for dynasty?
I didn’t pick this question to discuss Hamler or Conner specifically. I don’t believe in either player, as both are poor profiles. Hamler has done nothing throughout two seasons in the NFL, and the Broncos brought in so many wide receivers ahead of him. Conner is a fifth-round pick who wasn’t even on my radar before the NFL Draft. He did very little in his college career at Ole Miss, failing to impress the devy community.
However, if I take a late-round flier, I will always pick a running back over a wide receiver. First, outside of best-ball formats, you have to know when to start a player, and opportunity is more evident at running back than at wide receiver. Injuries on the depth chart lead directly to more touches for the backup running back, while we know that vacated targets don’t necessarily lead to added targets for the backup wide receivers.
Right now, Travis Etienne is the Jaguars’ starting running back, with James Robinson as his backup. But both of those players suffered devastating injuries last year, as Etienne sustained a Lisfranc injury while Robinson tore his Achilles. It seems like Etienne is fully healthy heading into training camp, but Robinson is not.
Therefore, Conner is one Etienne injury away from playing time, and he could even earn a few touches if Robinson cannot begin the season healthy. I’m not saying that I believe Conner will be a successful NFL running back because I do not. But if he sees an opportunity, you can likely flip him for a 2023 third-round pick or two, turning a massive profit on a waiver-wire addition. In contrast, doing the same with Hamler will be difficult, as the depth chart is so crowded, and even multiple injuries won’t vault him into WR3 range.
Fantasy Condo – How high do you have Chris Godwin ranked in dynasty?
I currently rank Godwin at WR17 and 30th overall in my 1QB dynasty rankings. In comparison, he’s presently the WR18 and 39.33 overall in DLF’s 1QB ADP data. Over his career, he’s been a productive wide receiver, both for the Buccaneers and fantasy football.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Of course, he peaked in 2019 during Jameis Winston’s 5,000-yard season. He totaled 86 receptions for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns in only 14 games, averaging 95.2 yards per game. Even though he only played 14 games, he finished as the WR2 overall and second in fantasy PPG with 19.58, behind Michael Thomas in both categories.
After 2019, Godwin failed to match his heights with Tom Brady, but he still had two more solid seasons.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
In 2020, he averaged 15.92 PPG and improved to 17.6 PPG in 2021, good for 15th and sixth among wide receivers, respectively. The Buccaneers also gave him a three-year, $60 million contract extension with $40 million guaranteed, even though he tore his ACL late in the 2021 season.
Based on that contract and his production history, I believe Godwin represents a value in dynasty formats. He’s only 26 years old, slightly younger than Deebo Samuel, and far younger than older veterans like Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs. His price is only lower because of the uncertainty surrounding his ACL tear, and it will rise when he returns to the field. If he defies the odds and plays week one, I think he could quickly rise back into WR1 territory in dynasty rankings.
rick j solak – Baker Mayfield going to cook week one. Sell for a 2023 first-round pick after the Browns game?
I’ll keep it very straightforward here. If you can ever get any first-round pick for Baker Mayfield, do it immediately and don’t look back. There’s a legitimate debate about whether Mayfield is a good real-life starting quarterback and where he ranks in the pantheon of NFL quarterbacks. I believe he’s somewhere around the 25th-best starter, but that’s neither here nor there. What matters for our purposes is his abysmal fantasy production.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
As you can see, he’s only finished as a top-five quarterback in five career games, representing 8.33% of his contests. However, he’s somehow managed to finish outside the top 24 23.33% of the time, which is insane considering that at most 32 quarterbacks start each week. He’s been outside QB2 range almost as often as he’s been a QB1. His fantasy profile represents the worst type of fantasy quarterback: no ceiling and no floor.
While Mayfield could bounce back in Carolina, I’m not counting on a massive improvement. He failed to put up massive fantasy numbers with solid weapons in Cleveland, and the Panthers’ weapons are nothing special. Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore are a good one-two punch, but they lack depth beyond those two players. He also doesn’t run the ball, failing to top 165 rushing yards in his four seasons. I’d readily accept a pair of 2023 second-rounders for Mayfield in a superflex format, and a single second-rounder would be a consideration. Now is the time to sell Mayfield off your roster and move on to players you might actually want to start in your lineups.
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