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The Ask DLF Weekly Rundown

Tyler Justin Karp provides answers to your dynasty questions from this week’s Ask DLF show.

Jameis Winston

We do a weekly Ask DLF show every Tuesday at 9 PM Eastern on DLF’s YouTube Channel. Every week, we answer live dynasty questions and love doing it, especially with how interactive the live chat is. Of course, make sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel so you can be a part of this experience in the future.

However, the chat has become so active that we rarely actually answer all the questions in full detail. Still, we don’t want to let the people down, especially those who tuned into the live show. Therefore, we decided to do this article series, where we will provide written answers to some of the lengthier questions or the ones where we had to cut the answer short.

Let’s jump into this week’s first question!

Jake Detwiler – 12 Team SF. If I could get Jameis Winston for a 23 2nd should I?

Generally, I find most starting quarterbacks to carry at least a future second-round pick value in superflex dynasty leagues. There are a few exceptions, including players like Sam Darnold, Marcus Mariota, Drew Lock, and Mitchell Trubisky, who could lose their jobs this season. However, Winston is entirely secure as the Saints’ starter right now, as their only other quarterbacks are Andy Dalton and Ian Book.

Additionally, he signed a two-year deal this off-season containing $11.2 million in dead cap for the 2023 season. The Saints would only save $4.4 million by releasing him next off-season. On top of that, they also traded away their 2023 first-round pick to the Eagles as part of a series of moves to acquire Chris Olave with the 11th overall pick. It’s apparent that the Saints want Winston to be their starting quarterback with weapons around him, at least for the next two seasons.

Beyond his job security, he also provides legitimate fantasy value.

Charts courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

As you can see, he finished as the QB13 as a rookie and QB11 in 2016, showing fantasy value from the start of his career. He then had two seasons where he missed time, causing his overall rank to fall. Of course, his famous 2019 roller coaster season represents his best fantasy output, where he finished at QB3.

Winston’s per-game fantasy scoring gives an even clearer picture.

Four of his six starting seasons fall within a single PPG, with 2018 and 2019 as outliers. In those years, he had a true top receiving duo with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, which likely contributed to his increased fantasy output.

He also managed to duplicate his early-career PPG scoring in 2021 even without any significant receiving weapons. Marquez Callaway served as his WR1, giving Winston a putrid set of receivers to throw to. But now, Michael Thomas should return to the lineup, alongside free-agent Jarvis Landry and first-round pick Olave. I’m not saying that Winston will duplicate his 2019 performance, but he could easily be a low-end QB1 this season, especially if Thomas manages to play. With that upside, he’s certainly worth a future second-round pick.

Dylan Vergara – Panic level on Treylon Burks? Should I try to get out now and for what price?

I want everyone to remember last year’s panic surrounding Ja’Marr Chase’s drops when thinking about Burks. I’m slightly concerned that he’s not getting a lot of practice time as a rookie, but I haven’t truly moved him down my dynasty rankings yet. I might reevaluate this take if he continues to struggle throughout training camp and the preseason. But for now, stick with Burks. He was a solid prospect who received first-round draft capital and has an immense opportunity in Tennessee.

Cody Jacobson – Jahan Dotson might be a steal in rookie drafts

I completely agree that Dotson might be a steal in rookie drafts. He was the 10th overall pick in DLF’s May 1QB rookie ADP, which is where I also ranked him. However, it’s important to note that he carries first-round draft capital, as the Commanders selected him with the 16th overall pick in the NFL Draft. Therefore, they obviously want him to be a significant part of their receiving corps moving forward.

I also recently recorded a short video on my own YouTube channel about McLaurin, where I discussed the possibility that the Commanders may trade him. However, even if they don’t trade McLaurin right now, they may not be able to work out a long-term agreement with him, leaving a hole at the top of their depth chart. They only have Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and Logan Thomas as receiving options behind McLaurin and Dotson, and none of those players inspire even a shred of confidence.

I’d try to acquire Dotson in either rookie or startup drafts. His WR46 price in DLF’s current ADP seems extremely low. In contrast, I rank him ten spots higher at WR36.

Randy Page – Tyler Allgeier is the sleeper RB of the year

I’ve written about Allgeier twice already this year, first in a pre-draft rookie profile and then as part of rookies who landed in the best situations. I won’t completely rehash the two articles, but I liked him before the NFL Draft, even after his poor NFL Combine. However, I noted that if he fell to day three, I wouldn’t be particularly interested in him.

Of course, he ended up in the fifth round, where the Falcons selected him with the 151st overall pick. As I mentioned in the best landing spots piece, the Falcons have a barren running back depth chart. Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams represent Allgeier’s only competition for touches, and both players are over 30 years old.

Whether Allgeier breaks out or not, it’s important to remember that he’s not a long-term play. Michael Carter had superior draft capital, was a far better prospect than Allgeier, and had a solid rookie season. But the Jets replaced him with Breece Hall without a second thought. If Allgeier starts to gain value, make sure to sell him before the loaded 2023 NFL Draft.

P2thaR – Who’s a player that surprises you that he’s being drafted as low as he is?

Josh Palmer is a player whose cost makes little sense to me. Considering his target competition, he had a decent rookie season with 33 receptions for 353 yards and four touchdowns. Justin Herbert is also one of the most exciting fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL, alongside Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. He threw for over 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns in 2021, and it feels like he can take a further step forward in 2022.

The Chargers recently extended Mike Williams to a three-year, $60 million deal, but he’s never provided consistent production. Keenan Allen is their long-term WR1, although he’s now 30 years old. Herbert is one of the few quarterbacks who can support three fantasy wide receivers, and Palmer has the draft capital to imply he will have an expanded role in 2022. I think his WR87 and 190th overall price in DLF’s ADP is his absolute floor.

The Ask DLF Weekly Rundown
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Jacob Smith
17 days ago

Would you take Olave over Burks if drafting today?

Trkarfb32
16 days ago

I love the way Tyler breaks things down!

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