Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Strategy: A View from the 1.04

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option. In addition, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

ROOKIE SELECTION 1.04

The Pick: Garrett Wilson, WR Ohio State

This wide receiver class is really quite muddy. Any of the top four receivers could make a claim to be the top pass-catcher drafted in the NFL Draft as well as rookie drafts. For now, it seems Wilson is the favorite for Thursday, though he is the WR2 in our dynasty rookie ADP, as he has been all off-season.

A former five-star recruit who also earned Division I basketball scholarship offers, Wilson opted for Ohio State and was a force from day one. He truly broke out as a sophomore, playing alongside Justin Fields. He boasts elite body control and is able to make highlight reel catches look routine. Scouts have said that Wilson plays bigger than his 6’0”, 192-pound frame would suggest and he was also faster than many expected, running a 4.38 40 (90th percentile) at the Combine.

In a class in which each of the top four receivers have some concerning red flags as part of their profile, Wilson looks to be the cleanest – that should ultimately make him the top receiver drafted. I expect Wilson to gain value following the NFL Draft, moving up to at least the 1.03 spot in rookie drafts.

Trade Value

1.04 for 1.12/2.12/Nico Collins
1.04 for 1.08/2023 2nd round pick
1.04 for DeVonta Smith

Possible Pivots 

Treylon Burks, Kenneth Walker, Jameson Williams

Super-Flex Options

Treylon Burks

Rookie Selection 2.04

The Pick: Zamir White, RB Georgia

After two seasons starting for the Georgia Bulldogs, White is off to the NFL. To be fair, the backfield was shared between “Zeus” and James Cook, but it was White who led the team in rushing in consecutive seasons. He is a former top-ten overall recruit and was the top-ranked back in the 2018 class. He’s a big, strong physical runner who protects the ball and never stops battling for yardage. White put on a show at the Combine as well, running a faster-than-expected 4.4 40 time. He also posted a 10’8” broad jump (94th percentile).

There are a couple of concerns about White and if not for these, we could be talking about a top-five rookie pick. He has torn both ACLs in his football career, so the medical exams around the league are huge for him. Unfortunately, that information is not typically made public, so we’ll have to wait until the Draft. If White falls well into Day Three, it is likely due to his medicals. He is also a non-factor in the passing game as he caught just 17 passes in three years at Georgia.

White has been a steady riser this off-season, based on our rookie ADP. He began with an ADP of 29 overall and RB10, but following that Combine performance, he vaulted up to RB5 and 17 overall before jumping one more spot to his current ADP.

Trade Value

2.04/2023 1st round pick for 1.06
2.04 for Rashaad Penny
2.04/Gabriel Davis for Dalton Schultz

Possible Pivots

David Bell, John Metchie, Brian Robinson

Super-Flex Options

Jahan Dotson

Rookie Selection 3.04

The Pick: Alec Pierce, WR Cincinnati

It took Pierce a while to really make an impact but he capped off his career at Cincinnati with a strong season as Desmond Ridder led the team to the FBS playoffs. Pierce, an athletic big man, finished the season with 52 receptions for nearly 900 yards and eight scores. That might sound like modest production for a top team’s WR1 and it is – that’s one of the knocks on Pierce. He never reached 1,000 yards in a season and only managed five 100-yard performances in 45 games played.

Pierce started the offseason far down the ranks with a 45 overall rookie ADP but a dominant Combine performance boosted his stock among dynasty players. Pierce ran a 4.41 40 (83rd percentile) and jumped 41” in the vertical (95th percentile) and 10’9” in the broad (92nd percentile.) His current ADP of 28 over is by far his highest of the offseason and correlates with the assumption that Pierce will be a Day Two pick in the NFL Draft.

Trade Value

3.04 for OJ Howard
3.04 for Denzel Mims
3.04 for Jordan Love/4.09

Possible Pivots

Pierre Strong, Desmond Ridder, Tyler Allgeier

Super-Flex Options

Justyn Ross

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Strategy: A View from the 1.04