Dynasty Battle Review: Courtland Sutton vs Jerry Jeudy
Last off-season, I did a dynasty battle series that highlighted players with similar dynasty ADPs at the same position on the same team. Of course, there aren’t an unlimited number of those situations, so I only wrote five entries. However, even though there are only five articles, they are worth revisiting, as I had to compare two players and make a decision between them. Therefore, I either got the call right or wrong, and it gives me a chance to be accountable for that choice.
With that said, let’s jump into it!
Previous Article Summary
I wrote my previous article on Sutton and Jeudy in April 2021, before the 2021 NFL Draft. Of course, I suggest reading the original article, but I’ll give a quick summary here. For context, the Broncos are now in a completely different situation as a franchise than they were about a year ago.
The Broncos had Drew Lock as their starting quarterback at the time, as they hadn’t traded for Teddy Bridgewater yet. They also had KJ Hamler slotted as their WR3 instead of Tim Patrick, and Noah Fant was still on the roster. Additionally, I was relatively high on both Sutton and Jeudy because I expected the Broncos to do the smart thing and take a quarterback with their ninth overall pick instead of passing on Justin Fields as they did.
I won’t rehash the entire article, but here’s the conclusion I reached:
I leaned toward Jeudy for his far younger age, even though Sutton had produced far more in his career. Sutton also had a solid 2019 season with Lock, while Jeudy’s 2020 performance with Lock was an inefficient mess. However, I fully expected the Broncos to acquire a quarterback that improved both players’ outlooks.
2021 Results
Unfortunately, the Broncos acquired the one quarterback who didn’t improve the offense but swung the pendulum from Sutton to Jeudy when they traded for Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater won the training camp competition over Lock, and he immediately made Jeudy into the offense’s top target. In week one, Jeudy caught six of seven targets for 72 yards, while Sutton had only one catch for 14 yards on three targets.
However, Jeudy left the game with a high-ankle sprain after only playing 47% of offensive snaps, cutting his breakout performance short. He then missed the next six weeks, where Sutton became an excellent fantasy asset.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
As you can see, Sutton had more than 20 points in three of these six contests, finishing as a fantasy WR1 in those three games. Even in his down games, he didn’t completely kill your fantasy team, scoring 8.7, 7.7, and 11.7 PPR points. He also was 11th in fantasy points among wide receivers over those six weeks, even though he only scored two touchdowns. Therefore, it seemed like Sutton would become the Broncos’ WR1, and Jeudy’s strong week one was a mirage.
But after week seven, Jeudy returned to the starting lineup, and Sutton became one of the worst fantasy wide receivers in the game.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.
Jeudy played ten of the final 11 games, although he definitely was limited by his high-ankle sprain. Sutton averaged a measly 4.0 PPR points per game in those ten games with 1.8 receptions for 19.1 yards. He also failed to score a single touchdown over that span.
For further context, Let’s look at Sutton and Jeudy side-by-side over the back half of the season.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
This chart makes it even more apparent that Jeudy was the Broncos’ WR1 ahead of Sutton in 2021. He outscored him in nine of ten games they both played, and Sutton’s best performance came in week 17, which Jeudy missed. This chart also exemplifies just how anemic the Broncos’ passing offense performed in 2021. Even though Jeudy was infinitely better than Sutton, he was also totally unusable for fantasy football. He peaked at 12.9 PPR points in week nine and only had double-digit points three times. Luckily, there’s only room to improve from this disastrous year.
2022 and Beyond
The Broncos completely overhauled their quarterback room after 2021. They let Teddy Bridgewater walk in free agency, and they traded for Russell Wilson, sending Lock and Fant to Seattle in that deal. They also made significant investments in their veteran wide receivers, signing Patrick to a three-year $34 million extension and Sutton to a four-year, $60 million deal. Combined with Wilson’s current contract and Jeudy and Albert Okweugbunam’s rookie pacts, the Broncos’ top weapons are locked in through 2023 at a minimum.
Wilson has a history of supporting two fantasy-relevant wide receivers, and if you squint, you can almost see DK Metcalf in Sutton and Tyler Lockett in Jeudy. However, I don’t think Sutton has anywhere near Metcalf’s upside or physical talent, while Jeudy is more of a route-runner and less of a downfield threat than Lockett. The Broncos also want to run the ball with Javonte Williams, who should become a featured back in 2022. So at the very least, they will have a balanced offense, even if they throw the ball far more than they did in 2021.
Removing Fant from the offense should open up opportunities for Sutton and Jeudy, as Okweugbunam is still relatively unproven.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
But even without Fant, the targets will be split between Sutton, Jeudy, and Patrick, who all averaged similar receptions and yards per game in 2021. I also expect Okweugbunam to step up, even if he can’t match Fant’s production in 2022. Therefore, I don’t believe either Sutton or Jeudy will finish as a WR1, and it may even be difficult for both to produce WR2 production.
Conclusion
If choosing, I’ll go with Jeudy over Sutton in dynasty leagues, even more strongly than last year. It was abundantly clear that Jeudy was the superior player when the two shared the field last year, and he will now be fully healthy from his high-ankle sprain. Additionally, Jeudy remains 3.5 years younger than Sutton, giving him far more value insulation. Sutton turns 27 in October, so he will lose most of his dynasty value if he doesn’t produce this year. In contrast, Jeudy doesn’t even turn 23 until later this month, which means he has far more opportunity to revive his dynasty value now or down the line.
In DLF’s current dynasty startup ADP, Jeudy is the WR26 with an ADP of 52.33 overall, while Sutton is the WR31 with an ADP of 62.33 overall. I’m not jumping at Jeudy’s price, but it seems fair given his solid profile entering the NFL, his age, and the quarterback upgrade. However, Sutton is a hard sell at his current cost, and I rank him about two rounds lower than his ADP. I see younger players like Brandon Aiyuk, Chase Claypool, and Kadarius Toney behind Sutton in ADP, and I would take any of those receivers straight up over Sutton.
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